2012 NFL Mock Draft: Projecting the Draft's Riskiest Picks
Whether it's because of injuries, attitude, lack of production or some combination of the three, there are riskier prospects than others in the NFL draft.
Some still get drafted high, and others do drop because of it. In some cases a prospect may even return to school if eligible, much like we saw with Oklahoma's Landry Jones.
All that said, here's where some of the 2012 NFL draft's riskiest players end up.
Tennessee Titans: Alshon Jeffery, WR (South Carolina)
1 of 4Despite the lack of production by Alshon Jeffery in 2011, he's still going to be a first-round pick in the 2012 NFL draft.
His numbers are vastly down solely because South Carolina has had some QB issues, and with RB Marcus Lattimore's injury, he becomes the focal point of shutting down the Gamecocks offense.
Still, Jeffery is a great fit for the Tennessee Titans, as they need a guy who can out-jump anyone on the field. With a healthy Kenny Britt alongside Nate Washington, adding Jeffery gives Tennessee a solid receiving corps.
That being said, however, Alshon let his emotions get the best of him in South Carolina's bowl game versus Nebraska.
If a tough, physical corner like Nebraska's Alfonzo Dennard can get the best of Jeffery, then he will have trouble transitioning to the NFL—especially just in training camp for the Titans, who have Cortland Finnegan.
By that token, if Alshon doesn't fix his attitude, he'll be done with pro football before the 2012 season kicks off.
New Orleans: Jared Crick, DT/DE (Nebraska)
2 of 4The great thing about Nebraska's Jared Crick is that he can play in a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme, so the versatility in the trenches to be a significant contributor is there.
But solely because of his season-ending injury in 2011 are there concerns.
Crick tore his pectoral muscle midseason, and being a defensive lineman, that is a major injury. In the trenches defensive linemen need to use their hands as much as possible to swim or whip past the offensive lineman.
Anytime a blocker puts his hands out to protect the QB or make a lane for the running back, a defensive lineman's best chance to make a play is by swiping the blockers arm's with his own.
A torn pectoral muscle, however, can restrict that hand and arm motion to be an effective defensive lineman.
Just like a QB needs healthy knees to plant his feet and make precise passes, a running back needs strong ankles to make hard cuts and a defensive back needs swift hips to change directions while covering a receiver, any lineman needs those chest muscles to win in the trenches.
Getting back to Crick, he's still a solid prospect, but his injury could affect his draft stock, as we saw in 2011 with Da'Quan Bowers, whose knee injury knocked him out of the first round.
This draft, Crick will likely go late in Round 2 to New Orleans. The Saints could use a solid pass-rusher, as that's what Crick is known for, and worst-case scenario he adds depth.
New England Patriots: Bruce Irvin, OLB/DE (West Virginia)
3 of 4West Virginia's Bruce Irvin may be a sack-master. However, in the past two seasons combined he has just 62 total tackles (46 solo).
Now, he has recorded 22.5 sacks along with two forced fumbles combined for 2010 and 2011, but he needs to learn how to play more against the run.
Irvin's production against offenses in passing situations is certainly reputable, but in order to receive good playing time in the NFL, defending more against the run is needed.
As for the 2012 NFL draft, Irvin will likely go to New England in Round 2. The Patriots could use some fresh and young blood in the front seven, and being that they are weak against the pass, many teams will continue throwing against Bill Belichick.
Irvin is a good fit, as he's mainly a pass-rusher.
Obviously with the concern about his ability to defend the run, the smarter offenses will attack Irvin on the ground or via screen pass even in long-distance situations.
For as aggressive of a player as Irvin is, you can use that against him with draws, screens and quick tosses. The question is whether Irvin can develop into a complete hybrid defensive lineman/OLB.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Brandon Weeden, QB (Oklahoma State)
4 of 4He has the size—6'4", 220 pounds—a strong arm and experience under center at a top college football program.
The question is how Oklahoma State's Brandon Weeden fights off being almost 30 years old before his rookie season. It hasn't worked out for QBs entering the NFL at roughly that age in recent history (most notably Florida State's Chris Weinke), so Weeden is a concern.
Despite the accolades, Weeden is prone to throwing interceptions (26 combined between 2010 and 2011) and he's also had the luxury of receiver Justin Blackmon out wide.
Still, Weeden should go early in the third round to a team like Jacksonville. The Jaguars are starting over at head coach (no new hire yet) and have a stud RB in Maurice Jones-Drew as well as a stout defense.
If the Jaguars can provide Weeden with at least one standout receiver, he has the potential to become a solid NFL QB. Not to mention all Oklahoma State did was throw the football, so his arm isn't the problem.
The fact that he's inconsistent has been the biggest issue. That will not get you anywhere in the NFL, especially on a team that's rebuilding and has less patience/room for error.
2012 First-Round NFL Mock Draft
1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB (Stanford) | 17. Cincinnati (From OAK): Riley Reiff, OT (Iowa) |
2. St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR (Oklahoma State) | 18. San Diego Chargers: Courtney Upshaw, LB (Alabama) |
3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT (USC) | 19. Chicago Bears: Nick Toon, WR (Wisconsin) |
4. Cleveland Browns: Morris Claiborne, CB (LSU) | 20. Tennessee Titans: Alshon Jeffery, WR (South Carolina) |
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Trent Richardson, RB (Alabama) | 21. Cincinnati Bengals: Cordy Glenn, OG (Georgia) |
6. Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin, QB (Baylor) | 22. Detroit Lions: Zach Brown, LB (UNC) |
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Michael Floyd, WR (Notre Dame) | 23. Cleveland (From ATL): Vontaze Burfict, LB (ASU) |
8. Miami Dolphins: Kendall Wright, WR (Baylor) | 24. Denver Broncos: Chase Minnifield, CB (Virginia) |
9. Carolina Panthers: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB (Alabama) | 25. New York Giants: Devon Still, DT (Penn State) |
10. Buffalo Bills: Alfonzo Dennard, CB (Nebraska) | 26. Houston Texans: Jerel Worthy, DT (Michigan State) |
11. Kansas City Chiefs: David DeCastro, G (Stanford) | 27. San Francisco 49ers: Mark Barron, S (Alabama) |
12. Seattle Seahawks: Quinton Coples, DE (UNC) | 28. Baltimore Ravens: Dont'a Hightower, LB (Alabama) |
13. Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Martin, OT (Stanford) | 29. Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Adams, OT (Ohio State) |
14. Dallas Cowboys: Janoris Jenkins, CB (North Alabama) | 30. New England Patriots (From NO): Stephon Gilmore, CB (South Carolina) |
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Luke Kuechly, LB (Boston College) | 31. New England Patriots: Sam Montgomery, DE (LSU) |
16. New York Jets: Brandon Thompson, DE (Clemson) | 32. Green Bay Packers: Melvin Ingram, DE (South Carolina) |
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