NFL Picks Week 1: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Box Score Bets
Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season has officially arrived. For many fans, a new season means a myriad of new wagering opportunities.
While many fans prefer to focus on head-to-head matchups and parlays, box-score betting can provide some fun alternatives. Instead of picking a winner, fans can instead wager on the number of points scored or the performances of specific players.
This can help add a little extra excitement to a matchup in which it's just too difficult to pick a winner.
With this in mind, let's examine some of the trickiest games of Week 1 and a few box score over/unders to consider.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Lamar Jackson over 47.5 Rushing Yards
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Week 1 will kick off with the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night. The Chiefs are three-point home favorites, which makes for a very difficult line. Kansas City defeated Baltimore in the AFC title game last year and will have home-field advantage, but the Ravens were one of the NFL's best teams in 2023.
Baltimore also outlasted Kansas City in their last regular-season matchup, albeit back in 2021.
Fans who don't want to predict the outcome itself should consider taking the over on Lamar Jackson's rushing total. The reigning MVP is -115 (bet $115 to win $100) to top 47.5 rushing yards, something he may have to do to pull off the upset.
The Chiefs weren't particularly good against the run last season (24th in yards per carry allowed), and Baltimore will look to gain every advantage it can against the reigning champions. That should include several Jackson scrambles, even if newcomer Derrick Henry leads the rushing attack.
Though Jackson attempted 37 passes against Kansas City in the last meeting—one fewer than his season-high—he still rushed for 54 yards.
Josh Jacobs over 16.5 Receiving Yards
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Friday's game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers is another tough one to predict. The Eagles stumbled late in the 2023 season, while the Packers surged to become one of the league's hottest teams.
However, Philadelphia put a lot of work into addressing deficiencies in the offseason. Of course, it's hard to know how the finished product will look since the Eagles didn't play their starters in the preseason.
Add in the fact that this game will be played in Sao Paulo, Brazil, and it's hard to trust either side of the betting line—the Eagles are three-point favorites.
Instead, consider taking the over on the receiving yards of Packers running back Josh Jacobs. The former Las Vegas Raiders standout is a potent receiving option out of the backfield who has averaged 19.8 receiving yards per game in the NFL.
While Jacobs is with a new team, he should still be heavily utilized as a dual-threat back. Rookie MarShawn Lloyd may steal a few looks on passing downs, but Jacobs should still see 4-5 targets against Philadelphia.
Jacobs is -115 to hit the over here, and he should.
James Cook over 17.5 Receiving Yards
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While the Buffalo Bills feel like a fairly safe play straight-up (-285) against the Arizona Cardinals, the line (BUF -6) is a little risky.
Arizona has a healthy Kyler Murray at quarterback and some dangerous offensive threats like Trey McBride, James Conner and rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. The Bills, meanwhile, have a new-look receiving corps that may need time to gel.
If Bills quarterback Josh Allen presses too much it could lead to multiple turnovers and a very close contest—something that occurred in "winnable" games against the New York Jets and Denver Broncos last season.
Expect Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady to try getting Allen into a rhythm with easy completions early. That should mean quite a few targets for dual-threat running back James Cook.
Cook became a big piece of the offense over the second half of last season and finished with an average of 26.2 receiving yards per game. He's -120 to hit the over against an Arizona defense that ranked 30th in net yards per pass attempt allowed last season.
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Raiders and Chargers over 40.5 Total Points
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Divisional games are always tough to predict early in the season. The Raiders are three-point underdogs on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers, but they'll stand a good chance of pulling off the upset.
The Chargers are rebuilding under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. While his philosophy may eventually yield a tough, physical team that wins in the trenches, on the ground and with great defense—hallmarks of his Michigan Wolverines and San Francisco 49ers teams—it's likely to take time.
The Chargers ranked just 28th in total defense last season.
The Raiders, meanwhile, don't know exactly what to expect from the boom-or-bust style of new starting quarterback Gardner Minshew. Minshew has the pocket mobility and arm talent to generate huge plays, but he can also deliver turnovers in bunches.
Picking the two teams to combine for 41 or more points (-108) feels a lot safer than picking either to win entering Week 1. The Chargers still have an upper-echelon quarterback in Justin Herbert, while the Raiders have a bevy of playmakers that includes Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker and rookie Brock Bowers.
Las Vegas' defense played very well late last season, and L.A.'s defense may eventually be quite good. However, there's too much offensive talent in this matchup to ignore the over.
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