Ranking New NFL Head Coaches Most Likely to Succeed in 2024 Season
Coaching turnover in the NFL is as common as needing oil changes for a car. Every season is the equivalent of about 1,000 miles. Three years or so down the road, another one is required.
Seriously, look back three years ago to the 2021 cycle. Seven coaches were hired that offseason. Four are already gone and two more—the New York Jets' Robert Saleh and Philadelphia Eagles' Nick Sirianni—likely enter this season on the hot seat. Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions is the lone diesel from that group.
Essentially, today is the beginning of the end for some of the eight names taking over head coaching jobs. However, early success can set the stage for a longer tenure.
Each of these individuals enter completely different situations, though. Some are more capable of winning now than others. In the short term, varying results will occur, with the expectation of some being highly successful, and others...not so much.
Gentlemen, start your engines. Another NFL season will be roaring into life very soon. These new drivers are at the wheel will be holding on and just trying to stay on the track for as long as possible.
8. Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots
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Jerod Mayo helps provide a link to the New England Patriots' previous success and a new venture into the future. However, this first-time head coach isn't equipped with the tools to be successful off the starting line.
No matter how good a coach is, the old saying always rings true: "It's not the Xs and Os; it's the Jimmys and Joes."
New Patriots general manager...er, executive vice president of player personnel...Eliot Wolf understood the assignment and began proliferating the league's most underwhelming offense with talent.
They signed veteran Chukwuma Okorafor and drafted Caedan Wallace to provide offensive line reinforcements. Michael Onwenu also signed a massive contract extension.
At the skill positions, the Patriots brought in running back Antonio Gibson, brought back tight end Hunter Henry and drafted wide receivers Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker.
Crucially, New England signed Jacoby Brissett to serve as a bridge at quarterback for this year's third overall pick, Drake Maye.
While this was the right approach to roster-building, the Patriots were so far behind the rest of the league offensively that they're still not built to compete at the highest level.
Instead, this season is all about Maye's maturation and how he looks at the end of the season compared to when he initially enters the lineup, whenever that may be.
7. Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers
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Dave Canales has been the guru of resurrecting quarterback careers, and he's now tasked with getting the most out of 2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young.
It's not going to be easy, though. The Carolina Panthers finished 2-15 last season, as the league's worst squad. To make matters worse, the organization had already traded away the 2024 No. 1 overall pick in the deal to get Young.
As a franchise, Carolina hasn't managed more than seven wins or made the postseason since the 2017 season. The Panthers' opening was the worst-available job, particularly when the meddling and impatience of owner David Tepper is taken into consideration.
Still, Canales has been very good at what he does. He helped Geno Smith become the NFL Comeback Player of the Year before going to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he revived Baker Mayfield to look like the player who was once thought to be the long-term future of the Cleveland Browns.
This first-time head coach at any level must now take control of the entire roster, deal with everything required of the position and make sure he gets the most out of Young.
Considering where this squad was a year ago, while also trading away its best player in Brian Burns this offseason, improved play from Young should be the baseline for Year 1.
6. Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders
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Expectations for the entire Las Vegas Raiders season are built around the fact that no one can trust their quarterback setup.
Antonio Pierce already experienced a dress rehearsal for the job when he served as the interim coach after Josh McDaniels' firing. During that stretch, Las Vegas finished 5-4 and showed a much higher level of intensity.
The Raiders are more than capable of competing, particularly on defense. Maxx Crosby is an annual NFL Defensive Player of the Year candidate. The team helped him out this offseason by bringing in Christian Watkins to serve as a legitimate presence along the interior.
Even on offense, Las Vegas has top-notch talent, starting with wide receiver Davante Adams and this year's first-round selection of tight end Brock Bowers.
But none of its matters if the Raiders can't get competent play from the quarterback position. As surely as the previous sentence was written, some fans will mention that starter Gardner Minshew II almost led the Indianapolis Colts into the postseason last year and made a Pro Bowl (*chuckle*).
Everyone knows exactly who Minshew is: He's a quality backup, who can start for stretches, and an accurate thrower but struggles with the ability to drive the ball while also being skittish from the pocket. He's usually good for one significant blunder each game.
Aidan O'Connell will play this season. The Raiders, meanwhile, will be looking for another quarterback next year.
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5. Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers
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Jim Harbaugh can coach. He's been successful at every stop.
He holds a 188-71-1 record between the San Diego Toreros, Stanford Cardinal, San Francisco 49ers and Michigan Wolverines. He has experienced only two losing seasons during his coaching career, which included the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.
Of all the coaches hired this offseason, the 60-year-old is the biggest name with the longest pedigree.
For the last 20 years, the Los Angeles Chargers have been the NFL's void of lost potential. Every year, expectations build around the talent found on the roster, only to see the squad come up short or fall apart.
Harbaugh should be viewed as a coach capable of galvanizing what remains of a loaded lineup. Yet he can't combat the injury bug.
Los Angeles' top two players are already dinged. Quarterback Justin Herbert is dealing with plantar fascia in his right foot. The standout signal-caller plans to play through the injury, but it could affect him for the entire campaign. Meanwhile, defensive end Joey Bosa will play with a club on his hand after breaking it a month ago.
Overall, the Chargers will try to change the perception that they're soft and wilt in key moments. Harbaugh demands a certain level of toughness, with a hard-nosed approach to the game.
At the same time, key injuries and playing in the AFC West with the Kansas City Chiefs make it difficult to see the Chargers gaining headway this fall.
4. Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks
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Mike Macdonald will enjoy the strongest infrastructure of any of the new NFL head coaches.
With John Schneider, Seattle has one of the league's best general managers. He's been with the team since 2010. And despite being fired after last season, former head coach Pete Carroll remains with the team as an advisor.
However, the previous staff reached a glass ceiling. A fresh infusion of ideas and philosophies needed to be introduced.
"Pete gave so much freedom," longtime Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Locker said during an interview on the Rich Eisen Show. "I loved that aspect of his approach, because when you give someone freedom, they can't hide who they are.
"... With Mike, I like the fact he's bringing structure, because it's like, 'Hey, this is who we are. This is how we're going to be.' You better be able to tap into that. You better buy in. If not, you're pretty much not going to be here."
Macdonald should also bring the same aggressive defense that took the NFL by storm during his time with the Baltimore Ravens.
However, the quarterback position remains a potential hang-up. Geno Smith's emergence over the last two seasons has been one of the NFL's best stories. But the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams are a lot to overcome in the NFC West.
Smith and Co. might not have enough firepower.
3. Brian Callahan, Tennessee Titans
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New Tennessee Titans head coach Brian Callahan understands exactly what he faces.
"We're in a production biz, a winning biz," he told reporters on Monday. "We expect to go win. Build the rest of it as you go. Trying to win games, trying to build our football team. Both processes go at the same time."
The AFC South isn't settled. The Houston Texans are ascending, but they're not fully established. The Jacksonville Jaguars understand it's time to win. The Indianapolis Colts could be dangerous if sophomore signal-caller Anthony Richardson comes anywhere close to reaching his potential.
However, the Titans have been flying under the radar despite an outstanding offseason that began with Callahan's hire.
Firstly, he brought his father along to be part of the staff. Bill Callahan is, arguably, the game's best offensive line coach. Along with the additions of veteran center Lloyd Cushenberry III and this year's seventh overall pick, left tackle JC Latham, the team should be significantly better in the trenches.
Better blocking and protections bring more opportunities. Tennessee replaced running back Derrick Henry with a different type of ball-carrier in Tony Pollard to pair with Tyjae Spears. Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd massively upgrade the targets beyond DeAndre Hopkins.
Lastly, quarterback Will Levis should benefit greatly from playing with an improved surrounding cast and offensive-minded head coach.
"He's ready for the moment," Callahan said of Levis. "There is no question in my mind."
2. Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders
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The Washington Commanders can finally place 24 years of dysfunction, meddling and pettiness behind them. The franchise now finds itself in the Josh Harris era.
A winning season shouldn't just be a possibility; it should be expected, even for a team that hasn't managed a winning record since 2015. Washington has experienced 10 or more wins during a season only twice since the start of the 2000 campaign.
Dan Quinn brings a level of respect and expertise to the Commanders after being one of the top head coaching candidates over the last few offseasons.
"Head coach Dan Quinn is revered by his peers, particularly among those who have worked with him, and general manager Adam Peters has an esteemed eye for talent," The Athletic's Jeff Howe noted.
Peters provides an actual organizational hierarchy and stability that didn't exist under previous owner Daniel Snyder, who always wanted his fingers in the team's decisions. The new general manager can provide the ingredients to let Quinn and his staff cook.
A potential Houston Texans-like rise could occur from the Commanders.
Much like the Texans, a talented young quarterback has the potential to lead the way. Jayden Daniels should be dynamic from Day 1, even if he struggles to pick up some things because of his athleticism. Also, Quinn's track record of building defenses should drastically improve upon last year's 32nd-ranked unit.
In a shaky NFC East, a Commanders emergence wouldn't be a surprise.
1. Raheem Morris, Atlanta Falcons
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Raheem Morris is finally getting the second chance that many within the league have been clamoring for since he fell short as a 30-something head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Since that failure, Morris continued to grow. He served as an excellent position coach-turned-defensive coordinator. His story shows one of perseverance despite the meat grinder that is NFL hiring practices.
But the real reason that the 48-year-old is this high on the list is due to the Falcons getting straight at the game's most important position. General manager Terry Fontenot landed a whale in free agency with Kirk Cousins' signing. The team then doubled-down by taking Michael Penix Jr. with this year's eighth overall draft pick.
Cousins is the most important piece to the puzzle, though.
"When you go get a guy like Kirk, people want to play with him, right?" Morris told ESPN's Marc Raimondi. "Because they feel they have a chance to win. And when you have a chance to win, that allows company to come, that allows people to want to come play with them."
The Falcons had lots of chances to win under previous head coach Arthur Smith, but the team lacked the quarterback play to be anything more than a seven-win squad. A healthy Cousins will elevate a talented roster that also includes running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts.
Morris can steer this talent-laden group toward a division title and possibly do some damage in the postseason.
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