Fantasy Football 2024: Examining Expert Mock Drafts After Preseason Week 3
The NFL preseason is over, initial 53-player rosters have been set, and the start of the 2024 regular season is only a week away. This means that fantasy enthusiasts are in the final stretch of draft season.
This is the perfect period in which to conduct fantasy drafts. The risk of preseason injuries has passed, rosters are mostly set, and while there may be a few Week 1 surprises, fans should have a good idea of how player roles are going to look.
In other words, fans have as accurate of a fantasy snapshot as they're going to get before meaningful games are actually played.
With this in mind, let's dive into some of the most recent expert mocks from around the web and discuss some of the latest developments.
12-Team PPR Mock
1 of 3
Round 1
1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
2. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
3. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
4. Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
5. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
7. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
8. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
9, Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
10. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
11. A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
12. James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
Jamey Eisenberg and the CBS Sports team have run a series of mock drafts as part of their Draft-A-Thon to benefit St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. This 12-team point-per-reception (PPR) mock was published on Monday, on the eve of the cut deadline.
This mock also released on the same day that Dallas Cowboys wideout CeeDee Lamb finally signed a contract extension. It helps illustrate how quickly the landscape can change in the final days of the preseason.
"We started to see what could become a trend over the next two weeks," Eisenberg wrote. "CeeDee Lamb, who is holding out because of his contract, fell to No. 7 overall. For most of my drafts prior to this one, Lamb has been a consistent top-three overall selection,"
Indeed, Lamb has been a popular top-three pick and has even been the first WR off the board in many mocks we've examined. He's probably going to remain a high first-round selection in most leagues, now that he's under contract and ready to play Week 1.
"I feel like I'm not missing a beat," Lamb said, per Patrik Walker of the team's official website.
This doesn't mean that Lamb won't still slide in some leagues. Some managers will have concerns about his missed time in camp. Those who do should consider other options. Those who don't may end up getting a potential steal in the middle of Round 1.
The only other surprise early in this mock was Buffalo Bills running back James Cook going in Round 1. That has not been a common trend, but it's far from outlandish. The closer we get to the regular season, the more it feels like managers are prioritizing the handful of every-down backs that dot the NFL landscape.
10-Team Half PPR Mock
2 of 3
Round 1
1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
2. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
3. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
4. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
5. Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
6. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
7. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
8. A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
9. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
10. Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
Fred Zinkie and the Yahoo Sports team conducted their final mock of the season, a 10-team half-PPR draft that was also published the day before the cutdown deadline.
Running backs were also popular early in this one, which, as Zinkie noted, is the right approach in most formats:
"Unless your league allows you to start more than three receivers, you'll need to draft at least one early RB."
This being a half-point league instead of full PPR does slant the value away from receivers just a bit, but the logic is solid. With plenty of teams employing committee backfields, there's a big value gap between first- and second-tier running backs and the rest of the pack.
There's also a gap between elite receivers like Lamb, Ja'Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown and the rest of the receiver pool too, of course. However, there are 32 No. 1 receivers in the NFL, and while they're not all on equal footing, this creates a very wide second-tier of receivers.
It's worth noting that in this mock, the quarterback run didn't start until Round 4—Buffalo Bills signal-caller Josh Allen was a second-round pick in the CBS mock. Many managers prefer to wait on quarterbacks because there are plenty of starting-caliber options available, This is especially true in smaller leagues.
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love, for example, was an eighth-round pick in this mock.
There's still a good chance that someone in your league will flip the switch on a quarterback earlier than expected. If that happens, don't panic, and use it as a chance to secure another high-end skill player.
12-Team Half PPR Mock
3 of 3
Round 1
1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
2. Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
3. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
4. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
5. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
6. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
7. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
8. A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
9. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
10. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
11. Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
12. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
This 12-team, half PPR mock comes from Bleacher Report's Jake Rill. Again, we see many running backs going early, which wasn't exactly the case just a few weeks ago.
You may also note that San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey has been the top pick in all three mocks we've examined. He should be. He dealt with a calf injury during training camp and plays a position that carries injury risk. However, McCaffrey out-performed every other fantasy player by a large margin last season, and his floor and ceiling are both to to great to ignore.
Instead of discussing McCaffrey's bust potential—any player can bust if injuries are involved—let's talk handcuffs. Specifically, let's discuss the top options for McCaffrey managers.
In the past, Elijah Mitchell has been the handcuff for McCaffrey. However, San Francisco placed Mitchell on season-ending injured reserve ahead of Tuesday's cut deadline.
Jordan Mason is now probably the top handcuff for McCaffrey, though rookie fourth-round pick Isaac Guerendo may warrant some consideration as well. Landing either player on the waiver wire will be tough if McCaffrey does go down in-season.
Rill's mock only covered the first three rounds, but Mason was a 14th-round selection in the CBS mock. That's a reasonable range for a handcuff, though McCaffrey managers might want to target him more aggressively.
Looking for more insight to prep for your draft or make some tough roster decisions? Check out all the latest B/R Fantasy Football essentials here.
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