Predicting the NHL's 10 Top Scorers In 5 Years
One of the beautiful things about the NHL is the continuous flow of brilliant talent that comes into the league year after year. Even better is when those great players keep getting better all the time and that makes us feel really spoiled.
There are so many players who fill up the stat sheet with points by the truckload. We've watched Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Leon Draisaitl, Nikita Kucherov and Artemi Panarin do it with regularity.
Here, we're taking a look five years down the road at 10 of the players we think will be the league's top scorers. We'd love to use advanced stats to be able to predict how this will play out with more clarity, but that's not really possible.
What we do know is that when players hit the age of 30, most of them start to tumble down the board. The NHL is increasingly a young man's game, but don't worry, there are a few guys who will probably still be at or near the top of the list in five years' time. At least we think so.
We know you'll have thoughts, and we know there will be players you think will perform better than those we have chosen, so make sure to let us know who they are in the comments.
Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks
1 of 10
We haven't seen Macklin Celebrini play his first NHL game yet and a lot of risk comes with picking someone with zero games played to be one of the top 10 scorers in the next five years, but we're feeling pretty good about his chances.
He was the No. 1 pick in this year's draft for a reason. He was incredible during his one and only season at Boston University—at the age of 17. You thought college was hard at 18? Try speed-running high school to make sure you can go to college just to play hockey against guys up to four, five or six years older.
The San Jose Sharks are a young team that will soon be on the rise, and Celebrini will lead the way along with Will Smith, Willam Eklund, Quentin Musty and now Yaroslav Askarov in goal among many other prospects.
It might take them a few years as a team to jell, but Celebrini will be the guy everyone else will benefit from being around.
Jack Hughes, New Jersey Devils
2 of 10
Jack Hughes is already a star player. Landing on the cover of EA Sports' NHL 25 with his brothers, Quinn and Luke, only helped to highlight that fact, but if you look at the way he's put up points since he's entered the NHL, it's only a matter of time (and good health) before he's regularly near the top of the league in scoring.
In each of the past three seasons, the 23-year-old has been well over a point-per-game player. In 189 contests, he's put up 229 points including 96 goals. Those numbers are really good apart from the number of games played.
Injuries have been a killer for Hughes and if nothing else, that misfortune is what's gotten in his way from being talked about even more among the league's greats.
The Devils have a fun team. They went off this summer to improve the roster and with new coach Sheldon Keefe bringing the kind of hockey he enjoyed in Toronto, the outlook is bright for Hughes and the rest of the Devils to pop off in a big way.
Jason Robertson, Dallas Stars
3 of 10
If you've watched the Dallas Stars at all over the past few seasons, you've probably become familiar with forward Jason Robertson.
Ever since the 25-year-old started full-time in the NHL in 2020-2021, he's been an offensive force for Dallas.
In 292 games, Robertson has put up 314 points and broken the 40-goal barrier twice, including 46 two seasons ago. He can score a ton and can create goals as well, and while the Stars have a full team approach to how they run the offense, he is regularly at the top of the list.
What will help boost his numbers are the way teammates Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston drive offense. And with Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque joining the team full-time in the near future, things are looking way up for the Stars.
Having Robertson help drive the attack will ensure his spot near the top of the charts.
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Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs
4 of 10
It would be pretty silly to leave Auston Matthews out of the conversation here, wouldn't it? What's different about him is that he's able to bolster his point totals by piling up goals.
We've been in awe seeing Alex Ovechkin chasing down Wayne Gretzky's all-time goal scoring record, but if Matthews continues to score the way he does and has a long enough career, we could be talking about him doing it way down the road.
For today, though, we're focused on the next five years. And in two of the past three seasons, the 26-year-old has put up more than 100 points, and he's scored 40-plus goals in five consecutive seasons including two seasons of 60-or-more.
Matthews is an incredible goal scorer and with the great offensive talent surrounding him in Toronto, points are always going to be available no matter who is playing on his line.
Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Matthew Knies...whoever it is, Matthews is filling up the net either by himself or helping others to do it. And it's hard to see that slowing down anytime soon.
Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers
5 of 10
Here's a weird thing to say: Leon Draisaitl is the oldest player on our list at the age of 28.
We mentioned in the intro that when most players hit the age of 30, things can take a southward turn sometimes out of nowhere and sometimes it can be really hard.
However, when you watch the way Draisaitl plays and how well he controls and commands the action on the power play and the effortless way he's able to score goals and set up teammates, not to mention how he's been able to stay in the lineup, it's hard to doubt him.
In five of the past six seasons, the German has had 100-or-more points and the one season he didn't do it in 2020-2021, the season was 56 games long and he still had 84 points including 31 goals. He's a superb offensive weapon and that he's teammates with another one in Connor McDavid has helped make the Oilers a terrifying team to try to keep off the scoreboard.
With the kind of volume Draisaitl generates points and playing alongside McDavid, would you pick against him being a top-10 scorer in five years? Would you do it if he wound up playing elsewhere and not with McDavid? We only ask that because he's entering the final year of his contract in Edmonton and stranger things have happened.
Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
6 of 10
Is it a risk to pick a defenseman to be one of the top 10 scorers in five years? If this was still the 1990s or early 2000s, then it would be downright stupid.
However, it's the 2020s and the number of blue liners who can not only push the game from the back end but also excel at generating offense has exploded. And there's one among them who's beyond elite at right now and young enough to still be near the top of the charts down the road in Cale Makar.
The Avalanche defenseman, 25, is able to control the puck through all zones, make plays on a whim and score goals in the biggest moments. He has been a point per-game player in each of the past four seasons, and he didn't miss the mark by much in his rookie year when he had 50 points in 57 games.
Makar set a career high in points last season with 90 that broke his previous high of 86 set three years ago. Two years ago, injury kept him to 60 games, but he had 66 points in that time. Twice he's had 20-or-more goals, and he had a staggering 28 goals three years ago.
The Avalanche score a ton of goals and a major reason why is because of Makar. He's got a few contemporaries who could push to crack the top 10 in five years (Quinn Hughes, Evan Bouchard, Adam Fox, Rasmus Dahlin), but he has set the bar for everyone else.
Dylan Guenther, Utah Hockey Club
7 of 10
We showed at the start of this list that we're willing to take some (educated) shots in the dark, and we're going to do it again by picking Utah's Dylan Guenther.
The 21-year-old split last season between Arizona and Tucson in the AHL, and it was a bit strange that he did. Granted, it was his first professional season after completing his junior hockey career, so some time in the American League is just fine to learn the ropes.
In 29 AHL games, though, he had 28 points and earned the call back to the NHL.
In his first run with the Coyotes two seasons ago, he had 15 points in 33 games. In 45 games last season, he scored 18 goals and totaled 35 points and looked every bit of a take-charge offensive threat with the puck.
Guenther paired with 18-year-old rookie Logan Cooley, and the two used their speed and skill to put opponents on their heels and gave us all a glimpse of what's to come.
Fortunately for the fans in Salt Lake City, they'll get to reap the benefits of watching Guenther grow into his role as a high-end scorer for the Utah Hockey Club.
It's difficult to predict how things will play out there for everyone, but with the guys they have up front already and Guenther having gotten a proper development path, the outlook is bright for him.
Seth Jarvis, Carolina Hurricanes
8 of 10
The Carolina Hurricanes have a bunch of exciting players, but watching Seth Jarvis explode on the scene for them last season felt like we were witnessing a star being born.
The 22-year-old blew up for 33 goals and 34 assists last season, and you could feel that evolution coming after his performance in the postseason two years ago.
His rookie season three years ago was strong, but the following year his numbers dipped. But it was the playoffs that awakened him and that burst of confidence carried into last season when he turned into Carolina's No. 2 goal scorer and point producer behind Sebastian Aho.
While that timing worked out well for him to (eventually) get what should be a very nice contract before training camp opens in a few weeks, Jarvis turning into Carolina's version of the Tasmanian Devil on skates came at the perfect time for the team.
Now with a healthy Andrei Svechnikov to go along with Aho and a re-signed Martin Necas, Jarvis is in position to be part of a terrifying top-six forward group in which he can take advantage of how the team fires anything and everything at the net to cash in.
Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
9 of 10
Connor McDavid is the best player in the NHL. He's certainly the best offensive player in the league by a long shot, and his ability to control the puck, and therefore the game, makes him exceedingly difficult to control.
The 27-year-old has been the leading scorer in the league in five of his nine seasons. He's averaged 1.5 points per game in his career and been above 1.7 points per game in three of the past four seasons. He's going to score his 1,000th point at some point this season (he's 18 away) and he's 27 years old.
Trying to project what McDavid will be doing at age 32 is a fascinating exercise because we genuinely don't know. But if we base it off what Sidney Crosby has done through his career, McDavid will still be scoring more than a point per game and his mind for the game is just another part of him that sets him apart from 99.5 percent of the rest of the league.
McDavid might not win the Art Ross Trophy in five years, but betting against him might go rather poorly, too.
Connor Bedard, Chicago Blackhawks
10 of 10
Connor Bedard had a baptism of fire in his rookie season with Chicago. He played for a poor Blackhawks team and then missed 14 games because of a broken jaw after being rocked by New Jersey's Brendan Smith.
Despite the lack of high-end teammates and having to wear a face shield for an extended period of time (players will tell you it affects their vision and awareness despite the protection it provides), he still had 61 points in 68 games en route to winning the Calder Trophy.
With that year of experience under his belt and the quality of his teammates and probably linemates increasing this season, his numbers are only going to go up this season and then even more beyond that and onwards and upwards from then on.
Hockey fans love to be haters, especially to the best of the best, but Bedard is really good. His shot, his hands, his creativity, his vision and intelligence all put him in the upper echelon in the league.
If he doesn't wind up being one of the 10 best scorers in five years, something very terrible went wrong.
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