Jerome Ford's Fantasy Draft Landing Spot amid Rumors Nick Chubb Will Miss 1st 4 Games

The fantasy football stock of Cleveland Browns running back Jerome Ford got a slight boost with the 2024 NFL season right around the corner.

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the Browns are expected to keep Nick Chubb on the physically unable to perform list, which would rule him out for at least the first four games. Having filled in for him last year, Ford will be the starting running back in Chubb's place.

Ford has an average draft position of 112 on Yahoo Sports leagues and 120 at ESPN.com. Fantasy managers could be a little more aggressive in targeting him now that they have a better grasp of his usage right out of the gate.

For now, the 24-year-old is worth taking in the middle stages of a standard fantasy draft and penciling in as a fringe RB2/flex option.

It's tough to square Ford's ADP with his likely role in the Browns offense and what he delivered in 2023.

But it's worth diving into the numbers a little more.

Ford averaged 4.0 yards per carry and his production tailed off toward the end of the year. After running for a season-high 107 yards in a Week 10 win over the Baltimore Ravens, he averaged fewer than three yards per carry in four of his final seven starts.

According to NFL's Next Gen Stats, Ford also had the second-highest efficiency for a running back (4.68) while spending the most time on average behind the line of scrimmage.

As the site explains, a lower efficiency correlates to a runner who travels more north and south. The Miami Dolphins' De'Von Achane, who was briefly a fantasy standout, had the lowest efficiency and was followed by the Los Angeles Rams' Kyren Williams, another big fantasy performer.

Per Pro Football Reference, Ford also had a success rate of 39.7 percent, a metric that measures how frequently a ball-carrier gains 40 percent of the required yards on first down, 60 percent of the yards needed on second down and 100 percent on third or fourth downs. As a frame of reference, nearly all of the top rushers from 2023 had a success rate higher than 40 percent and some were approaching 60 percent.

It's worth asking how high Ford's ceiling is before getting into more broad questions about the Browns offense, such as how much Cleveland will lean on a healthy Deshaun Watson under center and whether D'Onta Foreman could steal some carries at the goal line and in short-yardage situations.

Given the news about Chubb, plenty of fantasy managers will feel emboldened about gambling on Ford's upside. It's a bet that may not pay off.