Bold Predictions for Cowboys' Individual Stat Leaders in 2024 NFL Season
The Dallas Cowboys wrapped up their preseason on Saturday and are now working on trimming the roster to 53 players before Tuesday's deadline.
While we don't know exactly how the final roster will look, we know Dallas' centerpiece players. While several 2023 contributors departed in free agency, stars like Dak Prescott, Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs and CeeDee Lamb are back—well, assuming Lamb ends his contract holdout before Week 1.
This is a point in the offseason where it's fun to make a few statistical projections. We'll take things a step further here and make a few bold predictions about some of Dallas' individual stat leaders in 2024.
Dak Prescott Has a Solid Campaign but Misses Pro Bowl
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Quarterback Dak Prescott had arguably the best statistical season of his career in 2023. He passed for 4,516 yards with a league-high 36 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. HE helped carry Dallas' offense, and in doing so, earned the third Pro Bowl nod of his career.
Statistically, Prescott may take a step backward in 2024. Lamb's status is part of the equation—even if he reports by Week 1, his camp absence could lead to a sluggish start—but there are other factors involved.
The Cowboys still lack proven receiver depth behind Lamb and Branding Cooks. Prescott is unlikely to garner the support of a strong running game, and the offensive line is undergoing a shift.
Longtime starters Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz are gone and have been replaced by rookies Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe. Even if the first-year players eventually become All-Pros, they're likely to have their fair share of rookie ups and downs.
The prediction here is that Prescott still leads Dallas to the postseason but doesn't impress enough to earn a Pro Bowl nod. The NFC quarterback landscape looks a whole lot better than it did this time last year, and there are several candidates who could earn a nod over Prescott in 2024.
Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts and Matthew Stafford still loom as Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks. Jared Goff could earn a nod, depending on how well the Detroit Lions fare, and Baker Mayfield made the Pro Bowl as an alternate last season. Rookies Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams could even enter the mix by exceeding expectations, and Jordan Love could make a big jump in his second full season as the Green Bay Packers' starter.
Prescott should still perform well enough to earn himself a massive payday in 2025 free agency, though.
Stat Prediction: 4,322 Passing Yards, 32 TDs, 12 INTs, 260 rushing yards 2 rushing TDs
Rico Dowdle Reaches 1,000 Scrimmage Yards
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The Cowboys didn't make any major moves to address their backfield following the departure of Tony Pollard. Dallas signed Royce Freeman, brought back Ezekiel Elliott and ignored the position in April's draft.
All offseason, the plan has been to use a committee approach. However, most—including the Cowboys—believe that Elliott will once again be the lead back.
"We're running back by committee," McCarthy told reporters in May. "But I think he'll definitely play at the level that he's played.
The problem with that assessment is that Elliott simply hasn't played at a high level in several years. He hasn't topped 1,000 rushing yards or averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry since 2021, and he hasn't made the Pro Bowl since 2019.
The prediction here is that Elliott steadily becomes more of a role player as the season progresses and that Rico Dowdle emerges as Dallas' rushing leader.
Dowdle, a 2020 undrafted free agent, was a change-of-pace back behind Pollard last season. However, he was the most efficient runner on the Cowboys' roster, averaging 4.1 yards per carry—he was the only Cowboys running back to average more than 4.0 yards per carry.
Freeman and second-year back Deuce Vaughn may get their opportunities as well, but Dowdle has shown that he deserves a larger role in the offense. He had 17 receptions, topped 500 scrimmage yards and found the end zone four times last season despite playing just 22 percent of the offensive snaps.
With Pollard gone, Dowdle should have an opportunity to shine.
Stat Prediction: 680 rushing yards, 40 receptions, 340 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns
Trevon Diggs Has Impactful Return, but No Cowboy Tops 5 INTs
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Diggs quickly became a star in Dallas' secondary recording three interceptions as a rookie in 2020 and then a league-high 11 picks in 2021. The two-time Pro Bowler was off to another strong start in 2023 before he was lost for the season to a torn ACL.
The Cowboys aren't going to rush Diggs back into a prominent role, but they're eager to see his return.
"Obviously his ability to go get the football, get his hands on the football, the challenging of the receiver, the matchups, all of that, we missed all of his game," McCarthy said, per ESPN's Todd Archer.
Many fans may expect Diggs to step right back in as the star of Dallas' secondary—or, for those so inclined, a top option in IDP fantasy leagues. However, he may struggle to return to his 2021 form. Additionally, 2023 breakout star DaRon Bland—who led the NFL with nine interceptions last season—is set to miss significant time with a foot injury.
Without Bland—or the departed Stephon Gilmore—opposite him, quarterbacks are unlikely to test Diggs frequently enough for him to secure gaudy interception numbers, at least early. Bland may simply not be on the field enough to replicate last year's success.
Diggs will again be a great player, and the secondary may again be a team strength late in the season. However, fans shouldn't expect a Cowboy to challenge for the interceptions title this season.
Stat Prediction: 61 tackles, 14 passes defended, 5 INTs, 1 forced fumble
*Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference
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