Winners and Losers of NHL's Penguins, Jets Trade of Top Prospects McGroarty and Yager

When it became known that forward Rutger McGroarty was not seeing eye-to-eye with the Winnipeg Jets regarding his long-term development, it made him one of the most interesting trade options in the NHL this offseason.

The No. 14 overall pick in the 2022 draft, McGroarty has been one of the best players at the NCAA level and has emerged as a bona fide prospect with a real chance to be an NHL regular. Perhaps even as soon as this season.

But his unwillingness to sign with the Jets put Winnipeg in a tough spot, and it finally resulted in a trade Thursday when they sent him to the Pittsburgh Penguins in a prospect swap. In exchange for McGroarty, the Jets are getting 2023 first-round pick (also No. 14 overall) Brayden Yager.

With the trade now official, it is time to take a look at some of the early winners and losers from the deal.

Winner: Rutger McGroarty

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AMHERST, MASSACHUSETTS - OCTOBER 13: Rutger McGroarty #2 of the Michigan Wolverines warms up before a game against the Massachusetts Minutemen during NCAA men's hockey at the Mullins Center on October 13, 2023 in Amherst, Massachusetts. The Wolverines won 7-2. (Photo by Richard T Gagnon/Getty Images)

The obvious winner here is McGroarty because he ultimately ended up getting what he wanted—a trade somewhere else.

Not only did he get a trade into a new organization, he also has a chance to make an immediate impact in the NHL this season and is easily the highest-rated prospect in the Penguins' farm system. Especially with Yager being traded for him.

The Penguins might be a team on the decline and on the verge of a rebuild and some down years, but in the short term it is still a roster that has high-level players while also having needs and open roster spots that could be filled by McGroarty as early as this season.

He has already signed a three-year entry-level contract with the Penguins following the trade, per Murat Ates, Josh Yohe, Scott Wheeler and Jenna West of The Athletic.

Loser: Winnipeg's Farm System

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LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JUNE 29: Kevin Cheveldayoff of the Winnipeg Jets attends the NHL Draft at Sphere on June 29, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

It is important to say this at the start here: This is not a terrible trade for Winnipeg.

Far from it, actually.

The Jets had a prospect who did not want to play for them and created a situation where everybody pretty much knew they had to make a trade. They were backed into a corner.

That is not exactly dealing from a position of strength.

Despite that, the Jets still managed to get a comparable prospect back in return. What might make it a net loss for the Jets is that McGroarty seems to be a slightly more highly regarded prospect, he is probably closer to the NHL and being able to make an impact, and it is still a situation where the Jets had to trade a premium asset within their organization and may not have gotten better as a result.

They probably received the best possible return they could have given the situation. That does not mean they are necessarily better in the short term or long term.

Winner: The Penguins NHL Roster (and Maybe Sidney Crosby?)

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PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 13: Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby (87) looks on during the third period in the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Boston Bruins on April 13, 2024, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

This is a slightly bigger win for the Penguins because McGroarty not only fills a huge need in the farm system, but he also might have a chance to fill a need at the NHL level.

The Penguins have had one of the league's worst farm systems for a few years now, a direct result of their consistent position near the bottom of the draft as well as their willingness to trade so many draft picks and prospects for immediate help.

That has left a razor-thin farm system that general manager Kyle Dubas has to try to rebuild, and he has already started to take some steps in doing that in his first two years on the job.

He has held onto draft picks, accumulated more and now adds a player in McGroarty who is immediately the team's best forward prospect.

The farm system was especially thin when it came to forward prospects, and while it might hurt to lose Yager, it is still probably a small net gain, with the latter having a chance to play in the NHL this season. Yager was probably still more than a year away from potentially playing in the NHL.

Along with that, the 6'0", 200-pound McGroarty also brings more size and a different style of play, giving them the type of player who might even have a shot to fill a top-line role and play next to Sidney Crosby either this season or beyond (assuming Crosby re-signs with the Penguins). They need players like him.

Loser: University of Michigan

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AMHERST, MASSACHUSETTS - OCTOBER 13: Rutger McGroarty #2 of the Michigan Wolverines celebrates his goal against the Massachusetts Minutemen with teammate Frank Nazar III #91 and Gavin Brindley #4 during NCAA men's hockey at the Mullins Center on October 13, 2023 in Amherst, Massachusetts. The Wolverines won 7-2. (Photo by Richard T Gagnon/Getty Images)

The biggest loser in all of this is a team that is not even directly involved in the trade.

Or the NHL for that matter.

It is the University of Michigan hockey team because it will now not have one of its best players for the 2024-25 season.

As long as McGroarty was a part of the Jets organization, he was going to be returning to Michigan for his senior season. But now that he is in Pittsburgh, those plans have obviously changed.

He was one of Michigan's top players the past two years and its second-leading scorer during the 2023-24 season and projected to once again be a top player this season. It will now have to replace him.