NBA Players Ready to Explode Into Stardom
Every NBA season, we're treated to no fewer than a smattering of breakouts that see players enter their stardom era.
Who will ascend into those ranks by the end of the 2024-25 campaign? That's why we're here.
Star breakouts are open to interpretation. For our purposes, we're looking at the players most likely to generate first-time All-Star and All-NBA buzz or have the kind of leap that renders them All-Star and All-NBA adjacent.
This means those who have received All-Star nods—Scottie Barnes, Paolo Banchero, Tyrese Maxey, et al.—will be left out. All of them can and will get better. But they're already viewed as stars or on that stardom track.
Because the concepts of "buzz" and "All-NBA adjacent" are incredibly subjective, we also won't be looking at anyone who finished in the top 25 of All-NBA voting last season. That excludes someone like Victor Wembanyama from the process—which, if we're being honest, feels right.
Please don't take the forthcoming selections as gospel. These may not be the only five players poised for entry into stardom. They're merely the ones on whom I'd be prepared to bet the most.
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
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Glimpses at Cade Cunningham's ceiling grew more frequent and extended as last season wore on.
Kernels of his development were lost amid the Detroit Pistons being the Detroit Pistons, but he averaged 24.4 points and 7.2 assists after the All-Star break while sustaining a reasonable turnover percentage (12.3) relative to his usage rate (33.8), banging in 39.6 percent of his triples and converting 51.1. percent of his pull-up twos.
That version of Cunningham—the massive floor general who scores efficiently from two of three levels and navigates set defenses in his sleep—is All-NBA material. This brand of basketball just needs to persist over a longer period.
Building upon last year's progress feels not just possible but likely.
Detroit is galaxies from a perfect team, and the development of non-shooters could cramp things up from time to time. Overall, though, the Pistons have assembled enough spacing around Cunningham to optimize what he already does best—as well as give him the room necessary to reach and finish at the basket more and maybe even lean more into straight-up on-ball bursts that shine a spotlight onto the speed he showed more regularly a couple of years and lower body injuries ago.
Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets
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Including a second-year player is not a decision yours truly takes lightly. But Brandon Miller's rookie-season exploits left me with no choice.
The 21-year-old put up 17.3 points, 2.4 assists and 1.5 stocks (steals plus blocks) while working his butt off on defense for a Charlotte Hornets squad that was neither healthy nor talented enough to streamline, well, almost anything about his role.
Canning 37.3 percent of your treys on nearly seven attempts per game is a great harbinger for any newbie wing. But Miller teased much more offensive depth—most notably a comfort with getting to his spots and drilling looks from the mid-range. He finished the year downing 47.1 percent of his pull-up twos, a legitimately enthralling clip from a rookie.
Leveling up his offensive armory feels like a matter of strength and space. A fully healthy Hornets team takes care of the latter. They have a good amount of stretch baked into their rotation.
If Miller enters next season stronger, he'll be better suited to generate more separation and finish at the basket—a nightmare scenario for opposing defenses. Additional spacing and ceding status to LaMelo Ball should go a long way toward improving his playmaking fundamentals, too.
This all says nothing of Miller's defense, which was for the most part decidedly ahead of schedule last year. The effort he expends before even guarding the ball is enviable, and he even gave Charlotte a body to obstruct paths around the basket. Miller ranked inside the top 35 of total shots contested at the rim.
Skeptics will consider this ambitious—a potential rush to coronate. Maybe it is.
Conversely, perhaps another year of seasoning on a could-be-better version of the Hornets allows Miller to parlay his performance from an initially outsized role into full-blown stardom.
Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings
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Keegan Murray will not enjoy the same offensive agency as pretty much everyone else on this list. There is definitely more depth to his on-ball game, but he now has four players—DeMar DeRozan, De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, Domantas Sabonis—who supersede him in that pecking order.
Part of Murray's appeal is that it shouldn't matter. His motor doesn't wane just because he's off the ball. He will work to get shots, to stretch the floor, to get defenders moving—to just generally exist within the larger context in the offense.
Bumping up his scoring from 15.2 points per game isn't out of the question. Sabonis lives to set up everyone else, and DeRozan, Fox and Monk all bring very dynamic (and diverse) playmaking to the table. Murray, for his part, just needs to capitalize on it.
That shouldn't be a problem. He drilled 37.5 percent of his spot-up triples last year (40.6 percent post-All-Star break), finished inside the 74th percentile of efficiency in hand-off situations and knows how to catch-and-attack. His hustle in transition will serve him well, and he has the abrupt quickness and awareness to torch defenses off more cuts.
And yet, his ascent will be equally, if not more, fueled by his defense. He is closer to a flat-out wing stopper than he was billed coming out of Iowa and has even developed a knack for providing secondary layers of protection near the basket. Sabonis was the only member of the Kings last season to challenge more attempts inside six feet, where opponents shot over 4 percent worse than their average when challenged by Sacramento's sophomore.
Murray defends in a way that may never garner All-League consideration or culminate in the sexiest counting stats and catch-all returns. That's fine. He passes the eye test with flying colors—and is absolutely one of the league's most promising two-way wings.
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Jalen Williams occupies the space held by Tyrese Maxey entering last season: that kind-of-already-a-star who seems fated to become undeniable by year's end.
Playoff struggles accentuated the area in which J-Dub must improve most. The Oklahoma City Thunder still need that second high-level shot-creator and -maker. He's supposed to be it.
And he will be.
Consider how much Williams broadened his offensive horizons in Year 2. Fewer than 10 percent of his three-point makes went unassisted as a rookie. That share exploded past 25 percent last season, a progression buoyed by a more frequent and nastier step-back jumper. J-Dub also significantly increased his volume as a pick-and-roll ball-handler (37 percent of his possessions, up from 26 percent) and driver (14.5 per 36 minutes, up from 11.3).
Ferrying more of the offensive workload could have adversely impacted his efficiency. It didn't. His true shooting percentage climbed. So, too, did his sheer number of on-ball counters, both inside and outside the arc.
This is all packaged in someone already something like the second- or third-best defender on a title contender. That's a bonkers thing to say, and mean it, after two years.
First tastes of postseason basketball have a way of exposing weaknesses. Williams' were on full display. Given how he responded to his rookie campaign, why should we expect anything less than a full-tilt star breakout this coming season?
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Chet Holmgren worked his way into the (semi-distant) periphery of the All-NBA discourse last year…as a rookie.
Just imagine what he'll do with a year's experience on his CV.
And a bigger role.
Holmgren's accessory work is excellent, but he has the fluidity off the dribble to finish more complex attacks. He showed more than a few flashes of it last year—end-to-end takes, pump-and-drives, warp-speed back-to-basket fadeaways, hesitation dribbles, pull-ups and push shots from mid-range, the list goes on.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are now built to indulge the depth of his arsenal. Replacing Josh Giddey with Alex Caruso at once boosts the floor spacing and diminishes the ball dominance, both of which should result in Holmgren taking on more offensive responsibility.
Any improvement and extra usage on that end is gravy. Because, in case you forgot, Holmgren is already one of the most valuable (and malleable) rim protectors in basketball.
Brook Lopez was the only player to contest more shots at the hoop than him, and opponents converted their looks when challenged by him at a 52.4 percent clip—one of the six stingiest marks among 66 players to guard at least 250 total point-blank opportunities. (Aside: After signing Isaiah Hartenstein, OKC now has two of the top-seven with this filter. Good lord.)
Put a cap on Holmgren's Year 2 possibilities at your own peril. Virtually anything—All-Defense, All-Star, All-NBA, Most Improved Player, whatever—is on the table.
Honorable Mentions: Jonathan Kuminga; Jalen Johnson; Evan Mobley; Trey Murphy; Shaedon Sharpe; Jabari Smith Jr.; Jalen Suggs; Devin Vassell
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac. Draft-pick obligations via RealGM.
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