Patriots' Win-Loss Predictions for 2024 NFL Season
The New England Patriots possess one of the more extreme schedules in the NFL in 2024.
New England begins the season with three of four games on the road, then plays back-to-back home games before a trip to London.
The Patriots have five stretches in the regular season in which they play two games in a row either at home or on the road.
The start of the season could be brutal since the road trips are to Cincinnati, New York and San Francisco.
New England is not expected to contend for a playoff berth in Jerod Mayo's first season as head coach, and there is a chance it is out of contention by the end of October.
September
1 of 4
Week 1: at Cincinnati
Week 2: vs. Seattle
Week 3: at New York Jets
Week 4: at San Francisco
The Patriots could have a brutal September on their hands.
All three of the road games are expected to be losses.
Cincinnati, New York and San Francisco will all have a significant edge at quarterback with Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers and Brock Purdy.
The Bengals will try to use Week 1 as a springboard to a strong season with Burrow back healthy. The same can be said about where the Jets' mindset will be in Week 3 with Rodgers at the helm.
San Francisco is a far more complete team than the Patriots and the 49ers should be one of the heaviest favorites of September in that game.
New England's only real chance to win is against the Seattle Seahawks. It may take a steady performance in the pocket from Jacoby Brissett to direct the Patriots to a win in that game.
September Record Projection: 1-3
October
2 of 4
Week 5: vs. Miami
Week 6: vs. Houston
Week 7: vs. Jacksonville (London)
Week 8: vs. New York Jets
The travel at least gets a bit easier for the Patriots in October.
The only road trip is a flight across the Atlantic Ocean to face the Jacksonville Jaguars.
New England will be at a disadvantage in that game because the Jags will already have been in London for a week after a Week 6 clash with the Chicago Bears.
The other three October games are at home, but they come against tough opponents.
Miami and New York will see the Patriots as easy wins on their paths to the top of the AFC East, while Houston will hold a large edge at quarterback, just like the three September road foes.
A divisional upset is always possible, but on paper, the Patriots are worse than the Dolphins and Jets by a wide margin.
A poor October could lead the Patriots to give Drake Maye the starting quarterback role to see what he can do over the second half of the season.
October Projected Record: 0-4
November
3 of 4
Week 9: at Tennessee
Week 10: at Chicago
Week 11: vs. Los Angeles Rams
Week 12: at Miami
The Patriots' worst-case scenario is that they are 0-8 or 1-7 going into November.
It's a very real possibility given the September and October schedules, but it's a reality the franchise is not used to dealing with.
A move to Maye seems logical in November, especially if the Pats are overmatched and out of playoff contention.
November presents the Patriots with a few winnable games against Tennessee, Chicago and the Los Angeles Rams.
No one is sure what the Titans and Rams will look like by November. The Bears could be in great shape with Caleb Williams, but you can never rule out some inconsistent games from the No. 1 overall pick in his rookie year.
A 2-2 November should be mandatory for the Patriots, regardless of who starts at quarterback, and that would set up a final five-game stretch in which the Patriots could play spoiler in the AFC playoff picture.
November Projected Record: 2-2
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December and January
4 of 4
Week 13: vs. Indianapolis
Week 14 Bye
Week 15: at Arizona
Week 16: at Buffalo
Week 17: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Week 18: vs. Buffalo
The two late-season clashes with the Buffalo Bills will matter to Josh Allen and Co.
The Bills will likely be playing for the AFC East title and possibly the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC.
New England will feature in the spoiler role in Weeks 16 and 18, and maybe by then Maye has a good handle on the offense and he can inspire an upset with his play in the pocket.
If he's the starter by December, Maye has two chances before and after the bye to pick up wins against the Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals.
Those two games and the Week 14 bye should be vital for Maye to develop some confidence within the New England offense.
The play certainly will not be perfect, but if Maye progresses week by week, the Pats could finish strong with wins over the Colts, Cardinals and Los Angeles Chargers at minimum.
December/January Projected Record: 3-2
Overall Projected Record: 6-11
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