2025 NBA Predictions: Will Last Year's Play-in Teams Make Playoffs or Draft Lottery?
The NBA Play-In round is a consolation prize nobody wants to make a habit of collecting.
Repeat appearances in a four-way fight for the seventh and eighth seeds is a clear signal that a team is stuck in the middle—too good to tank and not good enough to firmly grasp a top-six spot in its conference.
Maybe that's not so bad for rebuilders who use the Play-In as a stepping stone to true playoff entry, but even those teams don't want to top out at that level.
Here, we'll predict which of last year's Play-In entrants will advance out of the the league's postseason precursor (or skip right past it entirely) and which ones will wind up in the lottery.
At a glance, and at the risk of spoiling things, a couple of the Western Conference's traditional powers aren't going to like what we see in their futures. Oh, and you should know this part already: Never bet against the Miami Heat.
Philadelphia 76ers
1 of 8
Last year, the Philadelphia 76ers clawed their way to the seventh seed in the East after Joel Embiid missed more than half the season. They then secured the official No. 7 playoff seed after scraping by the Miami Heat with a one-point win in the 7 vs. 8 Play-In game. Following that narrow victory, Philadelphia then buckled up for one of the most exciting six-game first-round series we've seen in years against the New York Knicks.
The goal for Paul George and a rebuilt supporting cast around Embiid and Tyrese Maxey is to avoid a repeat of that high-wire, close-shave postseason. This Sixers team is designed to dominate, hopefully rising above the Play-In mess by securing one of the top six seeds in the West—ideally top-four, which would ensure home-court advantage for at least one postseason series.
As usual, everything depends on Embiid's health. If he plays another 39 games this season and doesn't reach April in something close to top form, the Sixers will be vulnerable against anybody they're likely to face. George and Maxey should help to lighten Embiid's load during the year, perhaps allowing the 2022-23 MVP to reduce his minutes and take more nights off.
If Philadelphia can strike the right balance between resting Embiid and chasing a high seed, it won't have to worry about playing an extra game or two just to officially make the playoffs. Even if they have to do things the hard way again and advance through the Play-In, the Sixers will be better equipped with premium talent to do so.
Any mention of the lottery would signal something went horribly wrong, and the pain would go beyond the disappointment of a contending roster falling well short of expectations. Philly, which owes its 2025 first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder (top-six protected), might not even benefit from missing the postseason.
Prediction: Playoffs
Chicago Bulls
2 of 8
The Chicago Bulls have more work to do, but they're at least angling toward a rebuild for the first time in several years.
With their 2025 first-round pick owed to the San Antonio Spurs (top-10 protected), and little realistic hope of doing any damage in the unlikely event they actually make the Play-In with their current roster, the Bulls are hugely incentivized to lose.
Chicago is going to trade Zach LaVine the moment his market value noses up from its current nadir. Patience will be key, as LaVine is talented enough to put up huge scoring numbers early in the season, which should ensure the Bulls won't have to give up draft equity to move the remaining three years and $138 million left on his contract.
Ideally, Nikola Vučević will follow him out the door.
Once those two join three of last year's key contributors—DeMar DeRozan, Alex Caruso and Andre Drummond—in the "former Bulls" club, Coby White will find himself surrounded by young and unproven players. It'll be a rough road for him, but Chicago will at least be traveling toward the right destination.
With the Washington Wizards finally embracing a full teardown last season, the Bulls held the unwanted distinction of being the league's prime treadmill-of-mediocrity runner. They collected 40 victories in 2022-23, 39 last season and haven't won a first-round playoff series since 2014-15.
There are plenty of other East teams who also have designs on bottoming out, but if Chicago even makes the Play-In round, something will have gone wrong.
Prediction: Lottery
Atlanta Hawks
3 of 8
The Atlanta Hawks should finish ahead of the Bulls, a Play-In entrant last year that doesn't figure to return to that level in 2024-25. But Trae Young and Co. are still up against a numbers game; none of the other teams that finished above them in the standings projects to be any weaker than they were last year.
In fact, it's easier to foresee improvement than decline from each of the (deep breath) Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Indiana Pacers, Orlando Magic, Cleveland Cavaliers, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks and Boston Celtics. All eight of those teams finished with at least 10 more wins than the Hawks last season.
Maybe Atlanta can defy the odds by finding better roster balance in the wake of the trade that swapped out Dejounte Murray for a package headlined by Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr. and a pair of future first-round picks. And maybe the Hawks will get an All-NBA season out of Young, who is once again the team's solo on-ball creator with Murray out of the picture.
If the Hawks can't keep pace with the eight teams that finished ahead of them last season, they could pursue future-focused trades. Atlanta could shop Clint Capela, De'Andre Hunter and any other vet who doesn't project as a strong support piece for the next iteration of the team, which'll be built around No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher and Jalen Johnson.
Plus, the Toronto Raptors and Charlotte Hornets are both capable of overtaking the Hawks in the standings and preventing them from even seeing the Play-In in the first place.
Prediction: Lottery
Miami Heat
4 of 8
If the Miami Heat have a pulse, they're dangerous. They proved that by reaching the 2023 Finals after losing the first game of the Play-In tournament, effectively facing elimination from the jump and defying the odds for the better part of two straight months.
The East reloaded over the summer, though, with the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks adding significant talent in the form of Paul George and Mikal Bridges, respectively. Each of the other clubs that finished ahead of the Heat last year—Boston, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Orlando and Indiana—either lifted their talent levels or remain unchanged.
It's a good thing Miami has so much experience fighting uphill battles.
It'll be tough for Miami to climb into the top four, but it also probably won't fall below No. 8. Neither Atlanta nor Chicago, the ninth- and 10th-ranked teams from 2023-24, seems all that dangerous. And the Heat had seven- and 10-game cushions in the standings over those clubs last year.
In order to properly threaten the conference's top teams, Jimmy Butler has to stay healthy, Tyler Herro needs to help juice an offense that finished 21st in scoring efficiency and Bam Adebayo will once again need to anchor a defense that ranks somewhere around the top five.
Beating out the Hawks, Bulls, Raptors, Hornets and anyone else vying for the seventh and eighth playoff spots won't be difficult. From there, the Heat can do their odds-defying best to make it back to the playoffs.
Prediction: Playoffs
New Orleans Pelicans
5 of 8
The Dejounte Murray addition is great and all, but nothing should inspire more optimism for the New Orleans Pelicans' upcoming season than Zion Williamson a) looking lean and mean, and b) said lean-and-mean version of Zion talking about winning a championship.
The physical and mental sides of the Pels' most important figure seem to be properly aligned ahead of what could be a breakthrough season.
Considering New Orleans finished with 49 wins and missed the opportunity to skip past last year's Play-In by the smallest margin possible (a tiebreaker with the 49-33 Phoenix Suns), it's easy to be optimistic about the coming season.
We shouldn't discount the glut of competition facing New Orleans and all the other playoff aspirants in the West. The Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies finished outside the Play-In last year, and both teams are going to be heard from this time around. Houston is overloaded with rising young talent, and the Grizzlies were a reliable 50-win outfit before injuries wrecked their 2023-24 season.
Other than the LA Clippers, it's not so easy to pinpoint playoff teams primed for slippage.
Still, a healthy and conditioned Zion could vault the Pelicans into the top six, especially if Murray fits well and a hypothetical Brandon Ingram trade balances out the roster. Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones are ideal wing complements to Williamson, and dealing Ingram (who has never been a clean fit in a Zion-dominated offense) could address the hole at center.
New Orleans upgraded by landing Murray and can get better via organic growth or a future trade. With last year's 49 wins as a baseline, the Pels seem likelier to finish fourth in the conference than they do to miss the playoffs.
Prediction: Playoffs
Los Angeles Lakers
6 of 8
There are reasons to believe the Los Angeles Lakers can be better than they were a year ago. The only problem: There are much bigger ones suggesting they'll be worse.
For example, here's some glass-half-full fodder: It's likely Gabe Vincent will suit up for more than 11 games. Jarred Vanderbilt should be available for more than 29. Max Christie could evolve into a real rotation piece, Rui Hachimura is still young enough at 26 to have another level of growth, and rookie Dalton Knecht could provide valuable floor-spacing on offense.
Even if all those variables break in the Lakers' favor, one has to concede Anthony Davis is unlikely to match last year's career-high 76 games. The issue is the same for LeBron James, who logged 71—his highest total since 2017-18. James has treated the aging curve more defiantly than anyone in history, but it takes a special kind of blind optimism to believe someone entering his age-40 season will be available more often than he was at 39.
It should go without saying that the Lakers won't have a talent advantage against almost anyone when James or Davis misses a game. With both out, they're basically drawing dead.
Add to that the uncertain fitness of JJ Redick as a head coach, a Western Conference that refuses to stop getting deeper and the current unavailability of worthwhile trade upgrades, and it's almost impossible to argue the Lakers are better positioned to succeed today than they were a year ago at this time.
Get LeBron into a situation where he has to win one or two games to make the playoffs via the Play-In, and it'll be hard to bet against him. But considering L.A. avoided finishing 11th by just two losses last year, he might not even get that chance.
Prediction: Lottery
Sacramento Kings
7 of 8
This is the toughest call on the board, as the Sacramento Kings' offseason addition of DeMar DeRozan ups their talent level but also raises questions about duplicative offensive roles and defensive integrity.
That said, the Kings are going to be able to put multiple high-end scorers on the floor at all times—perhaps enough to get them back to the No. 1 spot they held in offensive efficiency two years ago. DeRozan is the king of self-generated buckets, De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis seem to sometimes share the same brain when their two-man actions are humming, and Malik Monk is as good as high-scoring sixth men get.
If Keegan Murray continues on his path to defensive-stopper status, he and Keon Ellis could provide just enough on D to balance out lineups that'll otherwise feature some pretty concerning holes.
Sacramento will have to figure out how to make players like Sabonis, DeRozan and Fox useful when they're off the ball. Otherwise the whole won't equal the sum of the parts.
Ultimately, the Kings should be highly motivated to resume the upward momentum they established in 2022-23. If they stay healthy and score like they did at their peak, 50 wins and a seventh seed (which would give them two cracks at winning one game to reach the playoffs) wouldn't be unrealistic.
Houston, Memphis and the Golden State Warriors will have something to say about the Kings' spot in the standings. But we're going with a narrow escape that lands Sacramento in the eighth spot after the Play-In concludes.
Prediction: Playoffs
Golden State Warriors
8 of 8
A talent infusion could change the calculus here, and NBA Insider Marc Stein noted in his latest Substack post that Golden State Warriors "officials believe they remain well-positioned for a trade upgrade at some point in the next year."
We're still viewing the Warriors as being closer to a lottery team than a postseason shoo-in.
Most of it has to do with how little margin for error the Dubs have. Any game Stephen Curry misses will likely result in the opponent being favored, and it's just too difficult to imagine Curry will hold up for 70-plus games because he's only done that once (last year) since 2016-17. Heading into his age-36 season and coming off a summer that included international travel and a successful pursuit of his first gold medal, Curry is bound to suffer at least a little decline, missed time or both.
Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski could both take leaps, perhaps to the point where they give Golden State a shot on nights Curry's shooting cools or he sits out altogether. Of course, any trade like the one Stein hinted at earlier would involve the Warriors sending out one or the other. It's not like the Dubs can add a second star without deeply cutting into their store of youth and depth.
Free-agent additions Kyle Anderson, Buddy Hield and De'Anthony Melton are all useful rotation pieces, but none are needle-movers of the caliber Golden State needs to significantly improve on last year's 46 wins.
To a greater degree than ever, the Warriors' success depends on Curry not only sustaining last year's All-NBA play, but also doing so over at least as large of a sample. That's a tall order, even for an all-time great.
Prediction: Lottery
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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