1 Question Still Facing Every NBA Team Ahead of 2024-25 Season
Now several weeks removed from the frenzy of early July, most NBA rosters are settled ahead of the 2024-25 season.
Scan the league, though, and questions linger. Whether it's a particular rotation spot, the seeming persistence of a team-wide weakness or a broader concern about overall direction, every team—from top-flight contender to lottery-bound tanker—faces uncertainty.
Only the coming regular season can provide true clarity, but we need to highlight these questions now to help frame the upcoming campaign.
Atlanta Hawks: How Much Longer Will the Trae Era Last?
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Dejounte Murray is gone, but that might only be because it was easier for the Atlanta Hawks to split up their ill-fitting backcourt by dealing him than Trae Young. The latter's contract is far larger, and any team acquiring Young would have to fundamentally alter the way it plays. Those factors tend to trim trade options.
The Hawks added defensive ace Dyson Daniels in the Murray deal, and he'll team with Bogdan Bogdanović to form one of the more versatile three-man guard rotations in the league. If Atlanta's frontcourt cooperates, this team could make it back to the playoffs after last year's brutal 36-win effort.
But if things don't go to plan, and the Hawks determine at some point this season that bigger changes are in order, don't be surprised if they revisit the idea of moving on from Young.
Zaccharie Risacher, the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft, gives Atlanta cover to make a franchise-altering move; the Hawks can point to him as the cornerstone of a new era—along with Jalen Johnson and whatever young pieces they might land in a deal that sends Young elsewhere.
Boston Celtics: What Does the Center Rotation Look Like?
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A committee approach is the most sensible way to hold the line while Kristaps Porziņģis recovers from offseason surgery to repair (deep breath) a torn medial retinaculum allowing dislocation of the posterior tibialis tendon.
Leaning harder on Al Horford would be a mistake. He's entering his age-38 season and will likely still be a critical piece of Boston's playoff rotation. Bubble-wrap that man and hope he reaches June in mint condition.
Luke Kornet and Xavier Tillman are completely different player types, with the former contributing as a lob-catcher and shot-blocker who can't really do much on D outside of drop coverage. Tillman is a switchable menace who can't defend the rim like Kornet but who might develop into a credible three-point shooter–much like Horford did around the midpoint of his career.
The Celtics will have to mix things up, play matchups and stay attentive to what particular skills they need from their center on a night-to-night basis. Most of all, they'll have to hope Porziņģis returns at full strength and can hold up without missing time for rest whenever he makes it back. Stopgaps are fine until April, at which point Boston will need KP's game-changing two-way play at the 5.
Brooklyn Nets: Who'll Make Plays?
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Dennis Schroder isn't a born facilitator, and Cam Thomas' bucket-obsessed tunnel vision is the stuff of legend. Both projected starters can score the ball, but neither seems likely to help bring out the best in the Brooklyn Nets' most important players.
Take Noah Clowney, a second-year forward who flashed an exciting combination of help-side shot-blocking and three-point shooting as a rookie last year. His development will depend on how well his guards can generate clean looks for him from deep. Young reclamation project Ziaire Williams falls into the same category. Even Nic Claxton, an old head compared to Clowney and Williams, isn't known as a self-sufficient scorer.
The concern extends to players who matter to the Nets for other reasons. This is a rebuilding operation that should be looking to move Dorian Finney-Smith, Cameron Johnson and Bogdan Bogdanović at the first opportunity. All three are dependent scorers who perform best when set up by unselfish guards. Their value on the market could diminish if Schroder and Thomas can't consistently find them—or aren't even looking in the first place.
The Nets will challenge for the worst record in the league, but this doesn't have to be a lost season. If Brooklyn can emphasize team play and ball movement, perhaps coaxing more facilitation from its scoring-minded guards, the rest of the roster can still make progress.
Charlotte Hornets: Is This Still LaMelo Ball's Team?
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Forgive the talk-radio-themed framing of the question, but it's undeniable that LaMelo Ball's status within the Charlotte Hornets organization is in flux.
A clear cornerstone when he earned an All-Star nod as a 20-year-old in 2021-22, Ball has essentially lost two straight seasons to ankle injuries. He's young enough to recover completely and reassume his mantle as the Hornets' franchise player, but things are more complicated now.
Not only do the Hornets have a new ownership group, front office and head coach since Ball was last a focal point, but they also drafted Brandon Miller last summer. Billed as more of a second option, Miller finished third in Rookie of the Year voting and averaged 17.3 points per game while shouldering a much heavier self-creation burden than forecasters thought possible.
Ideally, he'll fit right next to Ball and give Charlotte two complementary stars around which to build. But nothing's certain—from Ball's health to the organization's preferences when it comes to the player they want to be the face of the franchise.
Chicago Bulls: Can They Get Anything for Zach LaVine?
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Months ago, ESPN's Bobby Marks reported: "There is no market for Zach LaVine. [The Chicago Bulls] are trying to give him away and attach a first-round pick."
That'd seem to answer the question in the header pretty definitively, but it's still hard to believe the perceived toxicity of LaVine's contract.
With three years left at a price of $138 million, LaVine, coming off foot surgery, obviously comes with risks. He's also an imperfect player who isn't a natural facilitator, one who also tends to snooze too often defensively. But there also aren't many who can score like the 29-year-old guard has when healthy over the last several years.
In fact, there's just one: him.
LaVine is the only guy in the league who averaged at least 24.0 points and shot over 38.0 percent from three across at least 250 games from 2019-20 to 2022-23. That's the prolific production that got him his current deal, which'll average $46 million per season over the next three years.
It's apparent the Bulls can't get anything of value in trade for LaVine now, but if he returns to the floor and produces like he did prior to his injury-shortened 2023-24, maybe the market will shift in ways that benefit the Bulls.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Is the Third Time the Charm?
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The Cleveland Cavaliers won 51 games in their first season with Donovan Mitchell, and then they won 48 games and advanced out of the first round of the playoffs in their second.
What might the third go-round hold for the Cavs in 2024-25, with a new head coach in Kenny Atkinson and, hopefully, a fully healthy season from Mitchell and the three other pieces of the team's core—Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen?
Lots of smaller, individual questions will factor into the ultimate answer.
Can Garland return to form after his worst shooting season since he was a rookie? Will Evan Mobley take the offensive strides everyone's been hoping for? Will a clear fifth closer emerge to support the Cavs' top four stars?
Though all four of Cleveland's best players are now under contract through at least 2026-27 (Mitchell has a player option for 2027-28), which should bring stability, and though Atkinson could be an upgrade on former head coach JB Bickerstaff, the Cavs still have to prove this mixture of players can be more than a solid regular-season team that bows out early in the playoffs.
Ownership, executives and fans only have so much patience. This group needs to finally hit on all cylinders. Otherwise, there might not be a fourth chance to get things right in 2025-26.
Dallas Mavericks: Will They Miss Derrick Jones Jr.?
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It's hard to fault the Dallas Mavericks' thinking in adding Klay Thompson and Naji Marshall over the summer. Sure, they lost Derrick Jones Jr., but it was clear the Mavs needed a tweak.
Opposing playoff teams often found just one defensive gambit against Luka Dončić's offensive onslaught: Leave less dangerous options open, trust Dončić to find them, and then hope for a miss.
PJ Washington and Jones were most often the players opponents dared to fire away. The approach worked when it mattered most, as Jones and Washington combined to make about a quarter of their three-point attempts in the Finals against the Boston Celtics.
Thompson, though aging and not what he was as a member of the Golden State Warriors' dynastic run, cannot be treated that way. He'll command constant attention on the perimeter, which should create more space for Dončić and Kyrie Irving to operate. The addition of Marshall should also offset the loss of Jones on defense.
Or will it?
Jones was a vital transition and lob threat, often guarding the opponent's toughest matchup. For a Mavs team that was already short on athleticism outside of the center spot, his departure creates an even slower, more ground-bound roster. And are we sure Marshall is reliable enough to take on Jones' responsibilities on D?
Denver Nuggets: Are the Kids Ready?
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Christian Braun is likely to start for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Peyton Watson should slide up the depth chart and at least a couple of the Denver Nuggets' other young pieces are in for more playing time.
Which, if any, of them is going to be ready to handle the increased responsibilities as Denver tries to win its second title in three years?
On the one hand, Nikola Jokić is better than any other player in the league at setting up teammates for success. Remember several years ago when we marveled at the mind-meld chemistry between him and Gary Harris, a connection that ultimately got Harris paid (four years, $84 million in 2017)? We thought that was some kind of unique symbiotic relationship until later realizing Jokić establishes links like that with everybody.
That could be good news for Braun, Watson, Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett, Hunter Tyson and all the other early-20s crew on Denver's roster. But until we see how each of them performs, it'll be fair to question whether the Nuggets erred by letting Caldwell-Pope go.
Denver is the rare contender loaded with uncertainty. Is Russell Westbrook going to work? Can Dario Sarić shore up the frontcourt? Will Jamal Murray regain his athletic burst? But we've at least seen all those vets excel in their roles at one point or another. Denver's younger contingent enters this year with the most to prove.
Detroit Pistons: Who'll Emerge As Cade Cunningham's Top Sidekick?
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The most skeptical observers might balk at the notion that Cade Cunningham is at a level where it even makes sense to wonder about the identity of his top running mate. To some, the top pick in the 2021 draft still hasn't proved enough to move past asking whether he's a cornerstone in the first place.
Based on last year's growth, which saw Cunningham set career highs with 22.7 points and 7.5 assists on a 54.6 true shooting percentage (that one admittedly needs work), we're assuming he's on a star track after injuries limited him to 12 games in 2022-23.
So who's coming with him?
Jaden Ivey, best with the ball in his hands, has yet to demonstrate he can shoot it well enough to function as a second-side option when Cunningham runs the show. Ausar Thompson is even less threatening from the perimeter and might top out as an All-Defensive stud who barely does anything helpful on offense.
Rookie Ron Holland? Jalen Duren? Paul Reed?
OK, that last one was just to make sure you were paying attention. But the fact remains Detroit doesn't have a clear No. 2 behind Cunningham, and that makes it difficult to figure out what shape the rest of the roster will take as all these young players mature.
Golden State Warriors: Does Jonathan Kuminga Finally Make the Leap?
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Currently lacking a star-level support piece to ease the burden on Stephen Curry as he enters his 16th season, the Golden State Warriors need Jonathan Kuminga to deliver on all of his obvious potential.
The 6'8" combo forward has an ideal frame and athleticism to square off against the league's elite at that position.
Kuminga has amassed no shortage of highlights in his three-year career, but the 21-year-old has to shoot the ball better than he did last season, when only 32.1 percent of his three-point attempts fell. The Warriors have always wanted more rebounding and quicker help rotations from Kuminga, who needs to process the action faster to leverage his speed and bounce.
Brandin Podziemski was apparently untouchable in talks with the Utah Jazz about Lauri Markkanen, which speaks to his standing with the Dubs. But until he proves enough of a scoring threat to keep defenses honest, he'll continue to profile as a high-floor role-player—not the All-Star team governor Joe Lacob sees.
If the Warriors are going to make the most of what remains of Curry's prime, Kuminga has to level up.
Houston Rockets: Sengün, Green, Neither or Both?
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First of all, let's credit the Houston Rockets for not jumping the extension gun like the Cleveland Cavaliers, Toronto Raptors and especially the Orlando Magic. Those teams handed their 2021 first-rounders—Evan Mobley, Scottie Barnes and Franz Wagner—max extensions this offseason, a full year ahead of restricted free agency.
The Rockets held off on Alperen Sengün and Jalen Green, who are eligible for similar deals. Maybe Houston is aware of my crusade to convince teams to wait until they have more information before handing over deals worth a quarter-billion dollars.
Or maybe the Rockets just aren't sure which of the two, if any, is worth tying up so much cap space and flexibility.
Sengün was the better Rocket last season, finishing third in Most Improved Player voting with averages of 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists. He showed real offensive-hub abilities and improved enough as a defender to profile as a cornerstone in the Domantas Sabonis mold. Green, though, erupted down the stretch as Houston reeled off a 13-2 mark in March, a good chunk of which an injured Sengün watched from the sidelines.
Do these two fit together in the best future version of the Rockets? Should Houston prioritize one over the other? Are Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr. actually the better long-term investments?
Houston's glut of young talent is a good problem, but it's already time to start making some tough decisions.
Indiana Pacers: Are Bennedict Mathurin and Jarace Walker Trade Chips?
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The Indiana Pacers certainly wouldn't undo the Pascal Siakam trade (and subsequent signing), and they're surely glad Andrew Nembhard developed into a starting-caliber guard during his second season.
Those two are locked into high-leverage roles ahead of 2024-25, which leaves Jarace Walker and Bennedict Mathurin, two recent lottery selections, feeling the squeeze.
Walker barely played as a rookie, making it difficult to project his future value. Clarity may not come any time soon, as the Pacers also re-signed forward Obi Toppin after maxing out Siakam on a four-year contract. Walker doesn't really fit next to either of them.
Mathurin was an elite bench scorer in 2022-23, averaging 16.7 points, showing exceptional foul-drawing craft for a player so young and finishing fourth in Rookie of the Year voting. But Nembhard is the more complete player, better passer, superior defender and more sensible fit next to Tyrese Haliburton. That means Mathurin is ticketed for sixth-man duties at best. Even if his skill set suggests that should ultimately be his role, it's worth wondering whether he'll bristle at being marginalized so early in his career.
Indy made the Eastern Conference Finals last year and has two players on max contracts. This is no longer a rebuild. So are Walker and Mathurin going to somehow develop quickly without seeing the floor very much, or should they be moved for win-now players before their value declines?
LA Clippers: Is Kris Dunn's Shooting Legit?
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If Kris Dunn's shooting gains of the last couple of seasons are for real, the LA Clippers will have made one of the best acquisitions of the summer.
There's no question about the defense Dunn brings. He's a vicious on-ball irritant who also has a preternatural knack for stripping opponents as a help defender. That set of skills alone might not be worth the three-year, $17 million deal Dunn got from the Clips as part of a sign-and-trade agreement that brought him over from the Utah Jazz.
But add credible three-point shooting, and the contract instantly becomes a bargain.
Dunn saved his career during a 22-game stint with the Jazz in 2022-23, posting averages of 13.2 points and 5.6 assists while hitting 47.2 percent of his threes. Coming into that season, he had only hit 29.9 percent of his treys during his career. In 2023-24, Dunn logged another 66 games with Utah and made 36.9 percent from long range—not quite up to the standard set the prior year, but certainly good enough to get a little defensive attention.
This season may settle the issue of Dunn's shooting for good. Is he willing to keep firing, and can he convert at a high enough clip to offer offensive value?
Los Angeles Lakers: Is a Trade on the Horizon?
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The Los Angeles Lakers can't go into 2024-25 expecting the status quo to deliver them anything more than the 47 wins they amassed last year. Naturally, that produces trade speculation, because why would a marquee franchise still led by LeBron James and Anthony Davis want to settle for mediocrity?
Optimistically, Gabe Vincent will give the Lakers more than the 11 games he managed last season. Maybe Austin Reaves will get closer to the 39.8 percent he shot from long range in 2022-23 while sustaining his spike in assist rate from last year. Max Christie could take a step forward, Jarred Vanderbilt should be healthier and Rui Hachimura, 26, is only just now entering his prime.
But even if all of those factors work out in the Lakers' favor, they probably won't be enough to offset the unlikelihood of James and Davis combining to play 147 games like they did a year ago. In fact, the odds of those two missing more time is one of the best arguments for acquiring someone who can shoulder a star-level load.
If the Lakers are satisfied existing somewhere outside the contender's inner circle, and if they want to preserve their assets for the rapidly approaching post-LeBron phase of the franchise, then they don't need to swing a deal. If they crave one last realistic championship shot, they have to make a move.
Memphis Grizzlies: What's the Plan at Center?
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After watching No. 9 pick and two-time AP Player of the Year Zach Edey hang 14 points, 15 rebounds and four blocks on the Utah Jazz in summer-league action, the Memphis Grizzlies could have answered the question above by pointing to the 7'4" Purdue product and saying, "He's the plan."
Edey bowed out of offseason play due to an ankle injury, which introduced small-sample-size concerns to his possible fitness as a first-unit 5. That's to say nothing of the worries about his ability to handle the space and speed of the professional game.
Edey seems like a credible option at the 5, one perhaps capable of mimicking the physicality, screen-setting and offensive rebounding the Grizzlies once got from Steven Adams. In a perfect world, his bulk and presence in the paint would free up Jaren Jackson Jr. for the roving, disruptive role he last fulfilled in 2022-23 when he won Defensive Player of the Year.
Jackson could also play the 5, or the Grizzlies could go bargain shopping for a vet if Edey isn't quite ready for starting/closing duties yet.
Miami Heat: Can Jimmy Butler Stay on the Floor?
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The Miami Heat have shown they don't need a high playoff seed to do real damage. Their surge to the 2023 Finals started in the play-in tournament.
But as the East loads up with revamped contenders like the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks, runs like that only become more improbable. And that's just one of the reasons they need Jimmy Butler to prove he can hold up for larger chunks of the season.
Beyond seeding, Miami enters 2024-25 looking for ways to balance its profile. It defended at a top-five clip last year but scored at a rate that ranked in the bottom 10. More minutes from Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier and rookie Kel'el Ware could flip those in the other direction. It's Butler—and Bam Adebayo, of course—who have the two-way capacity to keep things balanced.
Entering his age-35 season, Butler is well past the age at which we used to predict major decline. LeBron James, Stephen Curry and others are forcing a reconsideration of that old expiration date, but don't forget Butler has loads of playoff miles and plenty of injuries on his resumé. He hasn't played more than 64 games in a season since 2018-19.
Milwaukee Bucks: Is Gary Trent Jr. Up for the Defensive Challenge?
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If Gary Trent Jr. gives the Milwaukee Bucks, say, 25 games of slightly below-league-average production, he'll still be a bargain. The Bucks obviously want more than that from him, but we need to keep in mind the normal expectations for a minimum-salaried player.
Milwaukee got similarly lucky when the market overlooked Malik Beasley last year, and Trent is going to provide similarly incendiary shooting as a likely fifth starter. Trent's career 38.6 percent knockdown rate from deep is right in line with Beasley's 38.5 percent figure, and both are high-volume per-minute gunners. The real difference-maker in the comparison will come on D, where Beasley, a historically terrible defender, got loads of credit for hitting a previously unseen "doesn't totally kill your scheme" level of competency last year.
Trent needs to be better than that, and his impact has to go beyond the steal-hoarding behavior he's exhibited throughout his career.
Damian Lillard's defense isn't scaring anyone, and Khris Middleton had surgery on both ankles this offseason. That means the most dangerous opposing guards and wings will see Trent matched up across from them more often than not.
If the Bucks are going to avoid a third straight first-round out, Trent has to embrace the stopper role.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Can Rob Dillingham Be Ready Right Away?
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Rob Dillingham is in line for more responsibility than most mid-lottery rookies have to handle, as a 56-win Minnesota Timberwolves team heads into 2024-25 with him as its likely backup point guard and bench scoring spark.
That's a heavy burden under any circumstances, but Minnesota's championship aspirations and Mike Conley's age make it even weightier. Dillingham could even start a fair number of games.
Minnesota obviously believes in the high-scoring Kentucky product, having sent out an unprotected 2031 first-round pick and a top-one protected 2030 first-round swap to get the No. 8 pick from the San Antonio Spurs. Dillingham filled it up in college, posting 15.3 points per game in only 22.3 minutes. He's got the full "get buckets" starter kit, complete with step-backs, change-of-pace zip and blistering speed when he needs it. Think a young, jittery Lou Williams.
That said, Dillingham will spend about half of this season as a teenager. If he avoids some ugly stretches in which he seems totally overwhelmed, he'll be the exception to the rule.
Can he survive defensively? Minnesota's top-ranked work on that end will certainly help, but opponents are going to target Dillingham all the same.
This will be a trial by fire on both ends, and the win-now Wolves need Dillingham to emerge without getting burned to a crisp.
New Orleans Pelicans: How Will the Brandon Ingram Situation Resolve?
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Brandon Ingram doesn't have a new contract extension as he enters the final year of his deal, and no reports indicate the New Orleans Pelicans have come close to trading him.
There's a very good reason for the stalemate, as ESPN's Brian Windhorst explained on ESPN Cleveland: "The reason that the Pelicans want to trade Brandon Ingram isn't because he's not a good player. It's because he wants a $200 million contract extension and they don't want to give it. And whatever team trades for him inherits the exact same situation—a player who wants a $200 million contract extension."
We've seen recent examples of this situation working out. The Toronto Raptors waited until Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby were in the last years of their deals (Anunoby had one more but was likely to opt out) and they recouped good value in trade for both forwards this past season.
The issue hung over Toronto all year, though, and one imagines the Pelicans would like to avoid distractions as they try to prove they're a fringe contender. What's more, New Orleans also has two players, essentially at Ingram's position, in Trey Murphy III and Herbert Jones who make more sense next to superstar Zion Williamson. The Pels don't need Ingram—and reportedly don't even want him at his asking price.
This will be the story in New Orleans until Ingram either re-ups, gets traded or announces he'll play things out on an expiring deal.
New York Knicks: Is There Enough Center Depth?
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Mitchell Robinson has been Tom Thibodeau's preferred starter at center throughout the head coach's tenure with the team. Though he's adapted in many ways over the years, Thibs still seems to want size and shot-blocking in the middle of his defense—and he's understandably appreciative of the second-chance points Robinson's elite offensive rebounding creates.
Robinson, however, has had a hard time staying healthy. He played just 31 games a year ago, falling behind Isaiah Hartenstein (who signed with the Oklahoma City Thunder over the summer) on the depth chart. The year prior, he appeared in 59 games.
The only other current Knicks player who passes for a center is Jericho Sims, whose 13.0 minutes per game last season showed he's not a surefire rotation piece.
New York can get creative with Julius Randle at the 5 if it needs to, and if Thibodeau is willing to make some defensive concessions. OG Anunoby has the heft to tangle with opposing centers, but probably not on a full-time basis. His value against wings is also too high to waste him on big men.
If Robinson can hold up for a larger chunk of the season than he has lately, maybe this won't be a problem. But if recent trends hold, New York will either have to sign someone else or spend a significant portion of the year as a small-ball outfit.
Oklahoma City Thunder: What's the Closing Lineup?
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Free-agent acquisition Isaiah Hartenstein should help address two of the Oklahoma City Thunder's most pressing problem areas, rebounding and secondary playmaking. Of course, that'll only be true if he's on the floor.
Considering OKC's preference for maximum stretch, which usually means slotting Chet Holmgren at center, it's worth wondering where Hartenstein figures into the team's closing lineup.
Like most teams with a glut of talent at multiple positions, the Thunder can play matchups and choose the right combos for the opponent at hand. Sometimes, Hartenstein and fellow newcomer Alex Caruso will be in the game during high-leverage moments. Others, neither will be out there and OKC will turn to Cason Wallace as a fifth option next to SGA, Jalen Williams, Lu Dort and Holmgren.
Options abound, and injuries will probably simplify coach Mark Daigneault's decision-making process for good chunks of the year. But it'll be fascinating to see which way the Thunder lean as they get into the late stages of the season and the playoffs.
Orlando Magic: Did They Add Enough Playmaking?
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Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will give the Orlando Magic a reliable two-way backcourt weapon, one who'll knock down open threes, team with Jalen Suggs to form one of the stoutest defensive guard tandems in the league and bring championship experience to a young roster that needs it.
But he's not going to run the show or routinely set up teammates to succeed.
Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are about as good as it gets among frontcourt playmakers, ranking in the 96th and 87th percentiles at their positions in assist rate, respectively. But Suggs is far from an intuitive facilitator, and Wendell Carter Jr., while a solid ball-mover at center, isn't exactly Nikola Jokić.
Jokić is proof teams don't necessarily need to get the lion's share of their playmaking from guards, but he's obviously an outlier case.
Orlando could compensate for its dearth of a dedicated shot-creator by committee, and its defense could get even better—perhaps even overtaking last year's No. 1 outfit on the end, the Minnesota Timberwolves. But it's also possible that the Magic didn't add the one thing they needed most and will submit a repeat of last year's imbalanced profile, which saw them rank 22nd in offensive rating and second on D.
Philadelphia 76ers: Can Joel Embiid Be Healthy When It Matters?
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Forget concerns about how a largely rebuilt roster will mesh. Ditch any doubts about how much veterans Eric Gordon, Kyle Lowry and Reggie Jackson have left. Ignore Caleb Martin's shaky 43.1 percent shooting in 2023-24.
No issue facing the Philadelphia 76ers matters more than Joel Embiid's consistent inability to make it through a full season unscathed. Whether it's been an acute injury (sometimes of the freak variety) or accumulated wear and tear, Embiid has been habitually compromised come playoff time.
To his credit, Embiid has typically found ways to stay on the floor when playing at less than 100 percent. But suiting up when hobbled is part of the reason his career postseason average of 24.9 points on a 58.0 true shooting percentage is so much worse than his regular season figure of 27.9 on 61.5 percent true shooting.
Other factors contribute to his reduced postseason impact, including more defensive emphasis on making him a passer, better overall competition and the tougher task of foul-baiting in a playoff setting. But anyone who's watched Embiid over the last few postseasons knows he's been something less than his best self most of the time. He's discussed the trend himself.
Paul George should help lighten the regular-season load, and a deeper overall roster that includes high-end backup center Andre Drummond might allow Embiid to cut his minutes to great preservative effect. But until we see the former MVP hold up for 82 games and a full postseason, his durability will always be the biggest question in Philly.
Phoenix Suns: Can the Defense Do It Again?
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Tyus Jones and Monte Morris are probably the two most reliable game-managing point guards of the last several seasons, and they'll help organize the Phoenix Suns offense, making life easier for Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.
Those two will also present undersized targets for opponents to attack, and switching schemes might not be viable at all. Concerns about Jusuf Nurkić's lack of lift have been around for a while, and even as he's produced elite Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus figures (we're talking 90th percentile or better) in six of his 10 career seasons, including last year, it somehow still feels as though he's vulnerable in space against quick guards and lob-catchers.
Durant is a year older, Beal probably can't hold up to a full season of two-way play given his injury history, and Phoenix's backup bigs—Mason Plumlee and Bol Bol—aren't celebrated stoppers.
The Suns finished a surprising 12th in defensive efficiency last year, and they'll need to be at least that good to be taken seriously as deep-postseason threats.
Portland Trail Blazers: Will the Real Scoot Henderson Please Stand Up?
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Those of us who drank the pre-draft Scoot Henderson Kool-Aid finished last season with a glimmer of hope.
The No. 3 overall pick, billed as a potentially generational talent at point guard, closed 2023-24 by averaging 19.4 points, 9.7 assists and 3.4 rebounds while hitting 41.7 percent of his threes in seven April contests.
"Now that's more like it," we all said while anxiously trying to forget the brutal inefficiency and lack of production Henderson displayed in the other six months of his debut campaign.
Rookies almost always struggle, and Henderson sprained an ankle early in the year, setting himself back at the worst possible time. But it's still hard to fathom that his 48.9 true shooting percentage was the worst in the league among all 116 players who attempted over 700 field goals—even with his hot close to the season.
The Portland Trail Blazers wisely shipped out Damian Lillard and replaced him with the heir apparent at the point. Don't take this as a suggestion they should have done anything different last summer. But if Henderson can't sustain a level of play that restores confidence in his status as a cornerstone, Portland will be in rough shape for a long time.
Sacramento Kings: Will the Whole Be Less Than the Sum of the Parts?
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Thanks to the trade that essentially swapped out Harrison Barnes for DeMar DeRozan, the Sacramento Kings are more talented than they were at this time last year. When they put their top five players on the floor, they'll have an abundance of creators and scorers.
The two-fold question is whether or not all of that offensive firepower actually makes any sense together, and whether it'll give back so much on defense that the offensive gains won't even matter.
De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, DeRozan and Domantas Sabonis are all more valuable with the ball in their hands. Sabonis, in particular, is ill-suited to duties as a floor-spacing bystander because no defense honors his outside shot.
Fox was solid on defense last season but graded out as a negative in each of the three prior years. Keegan Murray showed flashes of becoming a stopper, but nobody else in Sacramento's potential closing five would be confused with a high-end defender. That's an issue for a team that hasn't finished better than 18th on D since 2006.
Maybe this surplus of scoring will take Sacramento's offense back to the league-leading level it reached in 2022-23. But even from an offensive standpoint, it's hard to get past the fear that DeRozan's fit is less than ideal. The Kings' best players might overlap too much to maximize their abilities.
San Antonio Spurs: What New Dimensions Will Wemby Showcase?
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Chris Paul is a fascinating new addition to the San Antonio Spurs, especially if you view him through the prism (as we must in all cases) of what he can do for Victor Wembanyama.
Wemby's rise to perennial DPOY favorite is inevitable. But his effectiveness and optimal uses as an offensive player remain a mystery in the best possible way. It's easy to imagine him as an initiator from the perimeter, a post-up monster and everything else in between.
Paul is going to put him through graduate-level courses as a roll man. That may not ultimately be the best way to leverage Wembanyama's talents, but it'll certainly be exciting to watch.
Last year, only 11.0 percent of Wemby's offense came as a roll man, and he scored at a clip that ranked in just the 52nd percentile. Paul is an all-time pick-and-roll spammer, and as long as the Spurs are comfortable with it, he's going to team with Wembanyama for loads of two-man work in the middle of the floor.
That'll give us high-volume insights into Wemby's ability to pass on the move (because entire defenses are going to collapse onto him), finish through contact and read the floor at an accelerated pace.
If Wembanyama showed a flaw as a rookie, it was his high turnover rate. What better way to work on that weakness than to constantly be catching on the move and having to make a quick decision as a roll man?
Toronto Raptors: Are We Sure They Chose a Direction?
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We're finally past the days of criticizing the Toronto Raptors for holding onto veterans Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunogy longer than they should have. All three are gone, which means we can't complain about the Raps failing to choose a direction anymore.
Or can we?
Prime lottery odds go to the four worst teams, and Toronto enters this season looking a little too good to outrace four of the Washington Wizards, Brooklyn Nets, Portland Trail Blazers, Detroit Pistons and Chicago Bulls to the bottom of the standings. The Raptors also appear to have a relatively low ceiling, probably topping out at a play-in berth.
That sounds like the dreaded middle, doesn't it?
Toronto has projectable young talent in Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley, with Barnes potentially sniffing All-NBA status in the near future. But the rest of the roster is thin and short on upside unless a rookie like Ja'Kobe Walter pops, and the impending mediocre season won't give the Raptors much of a shot at landing another transformative piece.
The Atlanta Hawks won the lottery after finishing with the eighth-worst record last year, so Toronto can certainly luck into a game-changing pick. But it's still striking that the Raptors, despite shuffling personnel and skewing younger, seem stuck in the same place.
Utah Jazz: Will They Pull the Plug Again?
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The Utah Jazz are going on two straight seasons in which their talent performed a little too well in the early going, which necessitated some pretty deliberate late-season tanking.
Are they going to take that approach, which hurt their chances at the top pick in the last two drafts, for a third season in a row?
Lauri Markkanen is back after renegotiating and extending his contract at a date deliberately chosen to preclude an in-season trade. He's going to be on the roster for all of 2024-25. That fact alone means Utah can't be among the league's worst teams, even if it gives ample playing time to young and unproven up-and-comers like Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks and Walker Kessler.
Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton are useful rotation pieces, but will the Jazz let them cook or put them on the back burner?
Utah seems to want it both ways. It's loaded with young players who need developmental reps, and it could steer into a terrible record by granting George and the rest big roles from start to finish. But it also has many capable veterans who've played well enough to keep the team in the playoff hunt.
Trades could alleviate the issue and orient the Jazz toward full rebuild status, but if that were the plan, wouldn't Markkanen be gone?
Washington Wizards: Who's Ready for a Bobcat?
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It's rare to see an NBA team rank dead last on both ends of the floor, but the Washington Wizards are built to be exceptional(ly bad).
The Charlotte Bobcats are the gold standard, finishing 30th in both offensive and defensive efficiency during the 66-game, lockout-shortened 2011-12 season. The 2017-18 Phoenix Suns pulled off the same incompetent double dip themselves a few years later.
We haven't seen such thorough two-way ineptitude since.
The Wizards lost Tyus Jones and will turn over more control to Jordan Poole, who closed the 2023-24 season on a relatively high note but whose larger body of work suggests inefficiency and general offensive carelessness will be the norm. On D, No. 2 overall pick Alex Sarr figures to play a lot and, as is the case for most rookies, take his lumps.
Any serviceable veteran who might help Washington avoid joining the Suns and Bobcats—Malcolm Brogdon, Jonas Valanciunas, Kyle Kuzma—is a trade candidate.
Finally, with Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey and a 2025 draft class that looks spectacular, the Wizards should be motivated to lose as often as possible.
Lacking talent and loaded with incentives to fail, Washington is as well positioned as any team in the last several years to Bobcat its way to 30th-place rankings on both ends.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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