Predictions After 2024 NBA In-Season Tournament Schedule Release
The NBA released the full schedule for the 2024 in-season tournament, now known as the Emirates NBA Cup, on Tuesday.
The league has been divided into six groups of five teams (and three groups per conference). Every team will get four group-play games (one against each other member of the group). Then, the winners of each group, as well as the top two non-group winners, will go to the knockout round in Las Vegas. The championship game will be on December 17.
Before we get into the games themselves (which are thankfully closer than you think), let's evaluate the oncoming tournament with some predictions.
Luka Dončić Will Lead the Tournament in Scoring
1 of 5
Last season, Luka Dončić averaged 33.8 points during in-season tournament games. And somehow, that ranked just fourth among players who appeared in at least three tournament games.
This year, he'll climb those last few spots to No. 1 for a couple reasons.
First, despite the Dallas Mavericks being in the toughest group in the field (more on that later), only one team among those five has multiple elite perimeter defenders.
The New Orleans Pelicans can throw Herbert Jones, Trey Murphy III and maybe even Dejounte Murray at Luka. That won't be enough to stop him, but it might at least make him uncomfortable.
The Denver Nuggets (who have Aaron Gordon and maybe Christian Braun as options), Golden State Warriors (putting Draymond Green on a primary playmaker sort of neutralizes the effectiveness of the rest of the defense) and Memphis Grizzlies (Marcus Smart and Desmond Bane are too small), on the other hand, won't have a great shot at holding Dončić under 30 points.
The second reason is the nature of this tournament. Last year, it became clear that having some combination of young talent and a lack of championship equity fueled the in-season tournament's most successful teams. That's the formula that pushed the Indiana Pacers to the championship game.
The Lakers, who won the 2023 tournament, had the 2020 title in its recent history, but LeBron James and Anthony Davis were the only members of that team still on the roster in 2023.
The Mavericks are coming off an NBA Finals appearance, so you might think their collective foot would ease off the gas, but they fell short in that series. Luka has experience with in-season tournaments from his days playing in Europe. And they have at least one rising star in Dereck Lively II who will help keep this team engaged.
And with the Mavericks generally locked in, their most dynamic offensive weapon, Dončić, will be too. He'll average around 35 points per game and lead the tournament in scoring.
Group Winners
2 of 5
To determine which teams would be in the six groups, the NBA split the league into conferences and then further divided them by winning percentage. Then, they randomly selected teams from each of those sets and assigned them to the actual groups for the tournament.
Each of those groups, as well as their predicted winners, can be found below
East A: Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers
The New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers are probably the better teams, but the Orlando Magic fit the profile of a successful in-season tournament squad a bit better.
Orlando has multiple rising stars in Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, as well as a handful of others on rookie contracts (which makes that monetary bonus for the winning players mean a little more).
East B: Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Toronto Raptors
The Miami Heat have a pair of superstars with multiple deep playoff runs in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, but they also have some intriguing young talents who should be taking on more responsibility next season.
Tyler Herro will take a slight step forward next season, while Jaime Jaquez Jr. will take a big one. And their performance in this tournament will be a big part of that.
East C: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Washington Wizards
This sort of flies in the face of the factors already discussed. The Boston Celtics are a veteran team that just won the NBA title. Seeing them take it easy during the in-season tournament wouldn't be all that surprising.
But Boston is also a very real juggernaut with a three-point-heavy attack that can beat anyone, even if one or two Celtics are out. The "well-oiled machine" cliche doesn't apply to any team quite like it does Boston right now.
West A: Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings
You could probably count 2023-24 as the Houston Rockets' breakout. They smashed their preseason over/under and went 41-41. But there are a couple more organizational steps for them to take, and the in-season tournament gives them a place to take them.
Alperen Şengün has All-Star potential. Jabari Smith Jr. and Jalen Green might, too. And incoming rookie Reed Sheppard was one of the best players at the Las Vegas Summer League. Houston may have more youthful exuberance than any team in the league, and it will carry it to the top of this group.
West B: Los Angeles Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs, Utah Jazz
Speaking of youthful exuberance, the Oklahoma City Thunder have that and 2023-24's MVP runner-up in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
This roster is absolutely loaded. After SGA, it has Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams on rookie contracts. And this offseason, the Thunder juiced their rotation with perhaps the league's best perimeter defender in Alex Caruso and one of its most versatile energy bigs in Isaiah Hartenstein.
West C: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Pelicans
The Denver Nuggets are another team that doesn't really fit the previously described mold for good in-season tournament teams. They won the 2023 championship, and their second-best player (Jamal Murray) is often injured during the regular season.
But they still have the best player in the world in Nikola Jokić, and they could use the beginning of the 2024-25 campaign as a means to prove they're still among the league's top-tier title contenders.
Plenty of fans and media are out on the Nuggets, following the loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but Christian Braun has the potential to fill his shoes, and Russell Westbrook could be the Bruce Brown replacement Denver never had in 2023-24.
West C Will Be the Group of Death
3 of 5
In tournaments with this format, including the Olympics and World Cup, there's usually one set of teams deemed the "group of death."
And for this year's in-season tournament, there are decent arguments for a few different groups.
Ultimately, the nod for the most challenging set of five goes to West C, which features the Mavericks, Nuggets, Warriors, Grizzlies and Pelicans.
As already detailed, Dallas has the tournament's most prolific scorer. Denver has Jokić and a starting five that should still be among the league's best, even after the departure of KCP. Golden State has Stephen Curry coming off an absurd close to the Paris Olympics. Memphis has a returning Ja Morant. And if Zion Williamson is healthy, New Orleans is among the league's deepest and most explosive teams.
.png?w=256)
Memphis Grizzlies Win the Cup, with Ja Morant Winning MVP
4 of 5
With that group being as talented as it is, it feels relatively safe to predict it'll be among those who send more than one team to the knockout round.
So, while the Nuggets are predicted to win the group, another team from West C could emerge as the tournament's ultimate winner.
And that team is the Grizzlies, who should have their best player back in action this season.
In 2023-24, Morant was limited to just nine games due to a suspension and later an injury. Though that led to a bad record for the team, it gave players like Jaren Jackson Jr., GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr. opportunities to develop in expanded roles.
Their collective and individual improvement, as well as Ja's return, will make Memphis one of the NBA's most dynamic teams in the opening months of the season. That and a desire to prove 2023-24 was just a gap year will translate to in-season tournament wins, and eventually, the in-season tournament championship.
And while the supporting cast will have plenty to do with that triumph, Morant takes them from a lottery-level team to a consistent winner. That will be abundantly clear during the in-season tournament, to the point he's awarded the MVP (an honor that went to LeBron James last year).
Fan Interest Will Be Higher
5 of 5
TV ratings and social media impressions give the league concrete measures for interest in this new adventure. And now that we've had one year to get to know the in-season tournament, expecting those to be slightly higher is fair.
But this prediction has more to do with intangibles. Fans and players alike will be more engaged with this event. The games, including those in the group phase, will be a bit more dramatic.
The in-season tournament won't singlehandedly fix the early portion of the NBA's schedule, especially with the NFL going at full force in November and December, but it also doesn't hurt. And the more we get to know this event, the more we'll appreciate it.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Raw Results & Grades 🔠")
.png?w=600 "2027 NFL Mock Draft 🔮")
