Fantasy Football 2024: De'Von Achane and Bust Candidates to Avoid
Successful season-long fantasy campaigns are typically sparked by a successful draft. While smart roster management and timely waiver-wire adds can lead to more wins, it's hard to win a championship without first building a strong foundation.
Experienced fantasy managers know that crafting the right foundation requires finding value in the later rounds and avoiding busts in the early ones—and the latter part of the equation is the most important.
Managers can usually overcome missing on that 10th-round sleeper, but when a presumed fantasy centerpiece consistently disappoints, it can be hard to recover.
With this in mind, let's examine four big-name fantasy options who could bust in 2024 based on factors like past production, supporting cast, injury history and average draft position (ADP).
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
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With an ADP of 68.5, Dallas Cowboys star Dak Prescott is trending as QB8. Based on last year's numbers alone (4,516 passing yards, 36 TDs), that feels like a reasonable value.
However, Prescott carries some real risk in 2024. For starters, No. 1 receiver CeeDee Lamb continues to hold out for a new contract, and the Cowboys don't appear close to getting a deal done.
"I don't have any urgency to get it done," franchise owner Jerry Jones said, per NFL.com's Grant Gordon.
Even if Lamb's holdout doesn't carry over to the regular season, missed camp time could lead to a sluggish start. Unfortunately, the Cowboys don't have much high-end receiver depth behind him.
Additionally, the Cowboys are expected to start two rookies—Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe—along the offensive line and are unlikely to support Prescott with a strong running game. An aging Ezekiel Elliott is likely back in the RB1 role for Dallas.
This means that Prescott is likely to face a lot of pressure this season, which could lead to frequent miscues, turnovers and wasted opportunities. It also increases Prescott's risk for injury.
While Prescott is a decent scramble (242 yards, 2 TDs last season), he doesn't carry enough dual-threat ability to consistently offset bad passing performances. Quarterbacks trending later than Prescott—like Jordan Love, Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray—are simply safer starting QB options.
De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
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Look, Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane has shown that he can be special when healthy. He amassed 997 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns in only 11 games as a rookie last season, which is why he's become a hot commodity in fantasy.
Achane currently carries an ADP of 25 and is trending as RB11—meaning he's likely to be a top-10 RB in many drafts.
There are a few reasons why this is too high for managers to gamble on Achane. For one, his injury history is concerning, as he missed multiple games last season. Secondly, the Dolphins have other options at running back, including Raheem Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright—who looked like a star in the making during his preseason debut.
Even when healthy, Achane was a boom-or-bust performer in 2023. He saw double-digit carries in only five of his 11 appearances, and finding a consistent workload won't be easier with Wright now in the mix.
Simply put, managers shouldn't even consider making a player with that sort of week-to-week variance a top-10 RB. Achane will likely have some huge games, but there's no real way to predict when they'll come.
Lastly, the Dolphins are experiencing some shuffling along the offensive line after parting with Robert Hunt and Connor Williams in the offseason. If the line struggles to gel, even Achane's big games probably won't be as big as they were a year ago.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans
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With an ADP of 37.8, new Houston Texans receiver Stefon Diggs is trending as WR18. While he isn't being dramatically overvalued, managers should still be wary of targeting him in the third- or fourth-round range.
Now, Diggs is coming off his fifth-straight season with at least 1,100 receiving yards, and the Texans love the leadership he's bringing to the receiver room.
"I love Diggs. He's off the charts as a leader, off the charts as a player and a person," head coach DeMeco Ryans said, per Dianna Russini of The Athletic.
However, the Texans are unlikely to force-feed Diggs the football the way that the Buffalo Bills did in recent years. Houston has a bevy of talented pass-catchers that includes Tank Dell, Nico Collins, Noah Brown, Dalton Schultz and dual-threat running back Joe Mixon.
Landing with C.J. Stroud is great for Diggs, but he's more likely to disappear in some weeks than he ever was with Josh Allen and the Bills.
And while Diggs was consistently Buffalo's top target, his production waned late in each of the past two seasons. It's hard to justify using a third or fourth-round pick on a player with a track record of disappointing during the fantasy playoffs.
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T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings
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Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson is still working his way back from a torn ACL that required surgery in late January. Unsurprisingly, he's not being valued as a surefire starting tight end.
With an ADP of 116.2, Hockenson is trending as TE13. That means he's being targeted as a primary backup in most leagues. However, managers shouldn't be so quick to use a ninth- or 10th-round pick on a backup tight end, even if he has late-season potential.
The reality is that Hockenson isn't likely to see the field until close to midseason. According to ESPN's Dan Graziano, the Vikings plan to have Hockenson back at some point in the first half of the season. However, Week 7 is likely the point fantasy managers should expect, as Minnesota has its bye in Week 6.
Once he returns to the field, it may take time for Hockenson to return to pre-injury form. Returning to pre-injury production may not happen at all in 2024. Kirk Cousins is gone, and Hockenson will now be playing with either Sam Darnold or rookie QB J.J. McCarthy.
Hockenson is virtually guaranteed to miss time, and he may not be worth regular fantasy starts upon his return—depending, of course, on who else managers have at the position.
While Hockenson is worth a flier if available very late, he's being overdrafted at his current ADP.
*ADP via FantasyPros and based on point-per-reception scoring.
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