Fantasy Football 2024: Sleeper Cheatsheet and Strategy Tips for Mock Drafts
With NFL training camps having kicked off, fantasy football managers are in their own kind of training period.
This is when draft preparations are not only being put in place but also practiced with real-time through the age-old art of mock drafting. Whether mock-selecting against strangers or even with a simulated program, fantasy managers can try out different strategies, get a better feel for draft values and even learn how to react to unexpected runs at certain positions.
Mock drafts can be an extremely valuable tool, provided you conduct them appropriately. To help with that, we'll spotlight a couple mock draft strategies to follow after first highlighting a few sleepers to target and busts to avoid.
Sleepers to Target
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Quarterback: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Rookie quarterbacks seldom post strong fantasy numbers, but as C.J. Stroud proved just last season, the stars sometimes align for these first-year signal-callers.
Caleb Williams could follow in the footsteps. His receiving room is loaded (D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze), and his running back group looks a little shaky on paper. Now, the latter part may not sound like a good thing, but it could incentivize the Bears to lean more heavily on Williams' rushing ability, which would only drive up his fantasy value.
Running back: Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
Tyjae Spears managed to produce some fantasy-relevant weeks last season—as a rookie in the same backfield as Derrick Henry. With Spears entering his sophomore campaign and Henry now off to Baltimore, opportunity could be knocking for a breakout.
Spears was decent as a rusher (100 carries for 453 yards and two scores) but stood out as a receiver (52 receptions on 70 targets for 385 yards and a score). His work in the passing game alone should ensure he retains a prominent place in this offense, and it's possible his rushing work will be expanded, since Henry's replacement, Tony Pollard, was most efficient as a rotational back for the Dallas Cowboys.
Wide receiver: Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
There are plenty of targets to go around in Buffalo following the offseason subtractions of Stefon Diggs (team-high 160 targets last season) and Gabe Davis (81). And those are valuable targets since they're coming from Josh Allen.
Might Khalil Shakir be a big recipient of them? Absolutely. He caught just about everything in his area code as a sophomore last season, turning 45 targets into 39 receptions for 611 yards and a couple of touchdowns. To date, the 2022 fifth-rounder's average catch has spanned an impressive 15.8 yards. He could hit on big plays and see more action in the short-to-intermediate game, since rookie second-rounder Keon Coleman isn't guaranteed to hit the ground running and fellow newcomer Curtis Samuel might settle in as No. 3 receiver.
Busts to Avoid
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Quarterback: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen won't hurt your team in a vacuum, but if you spend the early pick it will take to get him (17th in average draft position overall, per FantasyPros), you could be setting yourself up for disappointment.
Last season, he had his fewest passing yards per game (253.3) and passing touchdowns (29) in four years. He also threw a career-high 18 interceptions. And remember, he posted those numbers while having Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis alongside him, both of whom have since exited Buffalo.
Allen managed to salvage his fantasy value by rushing for 15 touchdowns, but there's no reason to think he'll sniff that number this season. He had 13 rushing touchdowns over the two previous campaigns combined and had never rushed for more than nine scores.
Running back: De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
De'Von Achane spent his rookie season redefining the term explosive. His 103 carries spanned a whopping 800 yards, meaning his average run gained 7.8 yards. He also rushed for eight touchdowns and added another 197 yards and three scores on 27 catches.
So, what's the problem? Well, he missed a half-dozen games, totaled just 130 touches and still shares a backfield with Raheem Mostert, who tallied 1,187 scrimmage yards and 21 touchdowns. Even if Achane sees increased usage, Miami won't forget about Mostert. The potential return on investment just isn't there given Achane's draft price (ADP: 20).
Wide receiver: Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
Yes, Puka Nacua was all-caps AWESOME last season. He had 105 receptions on 160 targets for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns.
No, that doesn't guarantee he'll match this production, let alone build off of it, which his draft cost (ADP: 10) suggests fantasy managers assume will happen. Cooper Kupp is healthy again and could absolutely re-emerge as Matthew Stafford's favorite target. Volume drove a big chunk of Nacua's appeal last season, and it's possible that could be significantly decreased this time around.
Mock Draft Tips
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Experiment with different strategies.
Ever wondered how that zero-running-back strategy you've heard about actually looks at the end of a draft? Mock drafts are your chance to find out.
You don't want to go too far off your draft board or you risk warping the results, but this is when you can take chances and see what happens as a result. How does your team look if you're the last team to take a starting quarterback? What happens if you're the first? These are the kinds of things you should be tinkering with to see whether the right strategy is out there for you.
Search for discrepancies with average draft position.
Average draft positions give you a general guide of how the fantasy community collectively rates players. They don't, however, guarantee that your draft room will strictly adhere to them.
Single-draft results can go almost any direction, so don't read too much into a specific mock, Keep an eye out, though, for any patterns that develop. Players you see consistently going above or beneath their average draft positions could wind up doing the same during your actual draft.
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