2024 Paris Olympics: Confidence Meter for Gold in Team USA's Major Remaining Events
Thus far at the 2024 Paris Olympics, Team USA is racking up a lot of medals, but not quite as many gold medals as anticipated.
Of the 37 total medals won through the end of competition on August 1, only nine were gold compared to 15 silver and 13 bronze.
There should be plenty more gold coming the rest of the way, but in which major events should we be most confident that it happens?
As far as what qualifies as a "major" remaining event, we went with both basketball tournaments, both soccer/football tournaments and the events in which the presence of an already established Olympic star from Team USA (i.e. Simone Biles, Katie Ledecky, etc.) makes it a major event.
Basically, these are the medals that it will be almost impossible to not hear about on social media while they're happening. (Aside from breaking, which is going to be trending on social next weekend, but I cannot even pretend to write coherently about. Go Victor Montalvo, though?)
We were originally planning on including tennis here, too, but Coco Gauff already got bounced from the women's singles, women's doubles and mixed doubles tournaments. The only remaining hope for a tennis gold is in men's doubles.
Events are presented in chronological order of when the gold medal will be decided. For athletes with multiple opportunities for gold, order is based on the first one. All times ET. Confidence meter on a scale from 0 to 10.
Caeleb Dressel (50m Free, 100m Fly)
1 of 10
50m Free Schedule: August 2 at 2:30 p.m. (medal race)
100m Fly Schedule: August 2 at 3 p.m. (semifinal), August 3 at 2:30 p.m. (medal race)
As you can see, the schedule-makers did Caeleb Dressel no favors on Friday. After the medal race in the 50m free, he'll barely have time to catch his breath before getting back in the pool for the semifinals of the 100m fly half an hour later—assuming he makes it safely out of the qualifying heat 10 hours prior.
Then again, going in the opposite direction did nothing to break his stride in Tokyo.
At 10:30 local time on the morning of July 31, he won gold in the 100m fly with the still-standing world record time of 49.45s. A whole 45 minutes later, his 21.42s time in the 50m free was the fastest between the two semifinal heats. He proceeded to win two more golds the following day.
This time around, his docket isn't quite as full. He didn't qualify for the 100m free at the U.S. Olympic Trials, and there has been no indication yet that he'll be partaking in the 4x100m medley relays on Saturday (mixed) or Sunday (men's)—though he could surprise us.
He already has one gold medal this week, though, swimming the anchor leg of the 4x100m free relay on Saturday. That brought his count of career gold medals at the Olympics to eight. And if he gets two more on Friday and Saturday, Dressel will be alone in second place behind Michael Phelps as the only people to have ever won double-digit gold medals.
Given how convincingly he won both events at the U.S. Olympic Trials in June, you can't count him out. Australia's Cameron McEvoy is the favorite in the 50m free, though.
Confidence Meter: 3.0 for 50m free, 8.4 for 100m fly
Simone Biles (Individual Apparatuses)
2 of 10
Schedule: August 3 at 10:20 a.m. (vault), August 5 at 6:38 a.m. (balance beam), August 5 at 8:23 a.m. (floor exercise)
Simone Biles fell just a bit shy of getting a chance to go for six golds in Paris, placing ninth (top eight qualify) in the uneven bars portion of Sunday's qualifying rotations.
Of course, that always has been the gymnastics GOAT's weakest of the four apparatuses.
Between both the Olympics and the World Championships over the past decade-plus, Biles has secured at least seven medals in each of vault, balance beam, floor exercise, individual all-around and team while only once securing any hardware for uneven bars (a silver in Doha in 2018).
When she won four golds and a bronze at the 2016 Olympics, she placed 14th in the qualifying for uneven bars. Three years ago, she placed 10th on bars before withdrawing from most of the events.
In qualifying this past weekend, though, she did have the highest scores (by far) on both vault and floor exercise, as well as the second-best score in balance beam. She proceeded to get golds in both the team final and the individual all-around, posting the highest scores of anyone in vault, beam and floor in the all-around.
So, you know, business as usual for the sensation who now has more Olympic medals than any other U.S. gymnast in history, breaking what was a tie with Shannon Miller.
Could Biles moves into a tie for the most gymnastics gold medals by a woman in Olympic history, though?
She's presently at six with a real shot at three more. If she gets there, it would match Soviet Union gymnast Larisa Latynina's record of nine, set from 1956-64.
Floor exercise feels like a foregone conclusion. Biles does the most difficult routine by a wide margin and has only ever gotten golds for floor in both the Olympics and the Worlds. Her 15.066 score to clinch the individual all-around was 1.033 points better than anyone else managed.
Similar story in vault, where her difficulty level is so high that if she even remotely sticks her landings, she'll win.
Beam is the biggest question mark. Both Brazil's Rebeca Andrade and China's Zhou Yaqin are very strong candidates for gold, so there's no margin for error on the four-inch wide slab of wood.
Biles could and arguably should do it, though.
Confidence Meter: 9.8 for floor, 9.3 for vault, 7.4 for beam
Katie Ledecky (800m Free)
3 of 10
800m Free Schedule: August 3 at 3:08 p.m. (medal race)
Katie Ledecky's first event in Paris didn't go as well as many would have hoped. She did at least medal in the 400m, but she finished more than three seconds behind Australia's Ariarne Titmus and just barely held off New Zealand's Erika Fairweather to secure the bronze.
The longer swims have always been her strong suit, though, and she did rebound to win gold in the 1,500m on Wednesday by a laughable margin.
It was Ledecky's second consecutive Olympics winning that event.
Now, she's going for four in a row in the 800m.
At last summer's World Championships in Fukuoka, Ledecky lost to Titmus in the 400m by almost the exact same margin (3.35s) as she did on Saturday (3.37s). But in the 800m swim, she still bested Titmus by nearly five seconds.
In fact, Ledecky's swim last summer was 3.7s faster than her gold-medal swim in Tokyo. And though she was a bit slower at the U.S. Olympic Trials this past June, it's not like she exactly had to give it her all, still winning by 6.59s on cruise control.
Long story short, she's still the clear favorite and should be headed for the ninth Olympic gold medal of her illustrious career.
Confidence Meter: 9.4
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Sha'Carri Richardson (100m and 4x100m Relay)
4 of 10
100m Schedule: August 3 at 1:50 p.m. (semifinal), August 3 at 3:20 p.m. (medal race)
4x100m Schedule: August 8 at 5:10 a.m. (qualifying), August 9 at 1:30 p.m. (medal race)
Sha'Carri Richardson's moment in the spotlight was supposed to come in Tokyo in 2021.
With her unmistakable combination of blistering speed and dazzling press-on nails, Richardson dominated the women's 100m race at that year's U.S. Olympic Trials in Eugene, Oregon, winning by more than a tenth of a second to qualify for the Olympics. However, she tested positive for marijuana after that run, was suspended for a month by the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency and did not run in Tokyo.
Richardson is back and better than ever, though.
Her time of 10.86s at the 2021 trials was swell, but she took gold at the 2023 World Championships in Budapest with a run of 10.65s—besting Jamaica's Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce and Shericka Jackson, who took silver and bronze, respectively, three years ago. (Two-time reigning gold medalist Elaine Thompson-Herah suffered an Achilles injury in June and will not be competing in Paris.)
At the Olympic trials in late June, Richardson again took first place with a time of 10.71s and could be gearing up for Olympic gold.
If she does win, it would snap a lengthy drought for Team USA. Jamaica has taken gold (as well as 10 of the 12 total medals) in the women's 100m in each of the past four Olympics, with USA's most recent gold coming in 1996. (Marion Jones won in 2000, but that medal was vacated.)
And with the news coming out Wednesday that Jackson will not be participating in the 100m due to an injury, Richardson's already good chances of winning that individual event look even better.
Her better shot at gold might be the 4x100m relay, though, which the Americans won in both 2012 and 2016 before settling for silver in Tokyo.
Between the two sprints, her chances of winning at least one gold are quite high.
Confidence Meter: 8.4 for 100m, 9.0 for 4x100m
Noah Lyles (100m, 200m and 4x100m Relay)
5 of 10
100m Schedule: August 4 at 2 p.m. (semifinal), August 4 at 3:50 p.m. (medal race)
200m Schedule: August 5 at 1:55 p.m. (first round), August 7 at 2:02 p.m. (semifinal), August 8 at 2:30 p.m. (medal race)
4x100m Schedule: August 8 at 5:35 a.m. (qualifying), August 9 at 1:45 p.m. (medal race)
World-class sprinter Noah Lyles certainly isn't lacking for confidence.
On the day of the Opening Ceremony, he introduced himself as "Noah, Lyles, fastest man in the world" in a video posted from the Team USA Twitter account.
And, well, he's not wrong.
Last summer at the World Championships in Budapest, Lyles secured the gold medal in each of the three events in which he will be running this week.
His 100m time was 9.83s, and at the Diamond League meet in London two weeks ago, he was even faster with a mark of 9.81s. He's nowhere close to matching Usain Bolt's world record of 9.58s, but he is the fastest right now.
Lyles is even better in the 200m, though.
He bested country-mate Erriyon Knighton by more than two-tenths of a second with a mark of 19.52s at the 2023 Worlds, and it wasn't even his best performance. He went 19.31s the previous summer at the USA Outdoor Track and Field Championships, which was the fourth-fastest mark ever recorded in the 200m.
Recent Olympic history suggests the relay race is least likely to result in a gold. Team USA didn't even qualify for the final three years ago and has not officially medaled since 2004. (The silver won in 2012 was stripped because of Tyson Gay's failed drug test.) But they won pretty convincingly in Budapest and it just might be a clean sweep of three golds for Lyles to match what Bolt did in 2012 and 2016.
Confidence Meter: 9.6 for 200m, 7.9 for 100m, 5.8 for 4x100m
Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone (400m Hurdles, 4x400m Relay)
6 of 10
400m Hurdles Schedule: August 4 at 6:35 a.m. (round 1), August 6 at 2:07 p.m. (semi-final), August 8 at 3:25 p.m. (medal race)
4x400m Relay Schedule: August 9 at 4:40 a.m. (semi-final), August 10 at 3:14 p.m. (medal race)
With both Sha'Carri Richardson and Noah Lyles, we think it's possible they could win multiple Olympic golds on the track, though we've yet to see it. Lyles won a bronze in one event three years ago, but that's it. For Richardson, this is her first Olympics.
With Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone, however, we already know it can be done.
Along with Dalilah Muhammad, Athing Miu and Allyson Felix, she was part of the 4x400m relay team that obliterated the field in Tokyo, winning by a margin of nearly four seconds. That performance came three days after she set the world record in the 400m hurdles, winning gold with a time of 51.46s.
McLaughlin-Levrone has since broken her own world record three times and holds the two fastest 400m hurdles runs of all time, running a 50.68s at the U.S. Championships in 2022 and besting that slightly with a mark of 50.65s at the Olympics trials this past June.
She will have competition, though. Femke Bol of Netherlands has seven of the 15 fastest times ever recorded, including runs of 50.95s and 51.30s within the past few weeks. Should be quite the battle for gold.
But the women's 4x400m relay is pretty much what Team USA does best.
It's not always as convincing a victory as it was in Tokyo, but the U.S. women have taken gold in that event in seven consecutive Olympics and have never done worse than silver. We don't know for sure yet who will be part of that relay team, but McLaughlin-Levrone certainly should be on it and may well be double-dipping in gold once again.
Confidence Meter: 8.5 for 400m hurdles, 9.8 for 4x400m relay
Men's Soccer
7 of 10
Schedule: August 2 at 9 a.m. (Quarterfinal vs. Morocco), August 5 at 12 p.m. (Semifinal vs. Japan/Spain winner), August 9 at 12 p.m. (Gold Medal Match vs. TBD)
To put it lightly, history isn't on our side here.
Team USA has never won Olympic gold in men's soccer, hasn't reached the quarterfinals of the tournament since 2000 and hasn't won a medal since 1904—which hardly even counts, as that "tournament" consisted of two U.S. clubs and one Canadian team and they still couldn't win.
The U.S. men's national team also has not made it to a semifinal of the World Cup since placing third in the first one back in 1930, so it's not just tough luck in the Olympics.
After failing to even qualify for four of the previous five Olympics, though, they dominated the 2022 CONCACAF U-20 Championship, outscoring the competition by a total margin of 31-2 to qualify for the Olympics.
And after an initial 3-0 loss to home favorite France in pool play, they emerged somewhat convincingly as the runner-up from Group A with a 4-1 victory over New Zealand and a 3-0 win over Guinea—making it into the knockout portion of the tournament for just the second time since 1956.
There's a decent chance they'll win the quarterfinal against Morocco. The subsequent game against either Japan or Spain is considerably less likely, but not impossible. And if they run into France again in the gold-medal match, maybe they'll have a better plan of attack for the rematch.
Confidence Meter: 1.3
Women's Soccer
8 of 10
Schedule: August 3 at 9 a.m. (Quarterfinal vs. Japan), August 6 at 12 p.m. (Semifinal vs. Canada/Germany winner), August 10 at 11 a.m. (Gold Medal Match vs. TBD)
Despite taking bronze in 2020 and failing to medal in 2016, Team USA entered Paris as the slight favorite to take gold in the women's soccer event.
Thus far, they have backed that up by looking like the best team.
Things got a little shaky in the closing minutes of their final match of pool against Australia on Wednesday, but they emerged with a 3-0 record and the best goal differential in the tournament (+7).
USA certainly should win the quarterfinal against Japan in what might be a bit of a high-scoring affair. But get ready to hear a lot about that 2011 World Cup final that Japan won in penalty kicks if it's a tight one.
USA will also be a considerable favorite in the semifinals, though Canada is the reigning gold medalist and has some major "nobody believed in us" vibes going after advancing in spite of the six-point penalty for the drone spying scandal.
The gold-medal match against likely Spain or France is where things become more of a coin flip. Spain has looked mighty good, allowing just one goal 13 minutes into its opening match and pitching a shutout ever since. Spain also won the Women's World Cup last summer and sure would love to double dip in what is its first time ever qualifying for the women's Olympic tournament.
You have to like USA's chances, though. I'm nowhere near as confident as I am in basketball getting gold, but the USWNT has a good shot.
Confidence Meter: 5.8
Men's Basketball
9 of 10
Schedule: August 3 at 11:15 a.m. vs. Puerto Rico (last game of group play), TBD Quarterfinal on August 6, TBD Semifinal on August 8 (either 11:30 a.m. or 3 p.m.), Gold Medal Game August 10 at 3:30 p.m.
Since being added to the list of Olympic disciplines in 1936, USA has medaled in men's basketball in every single year, save for the 1980 games in Moscow in which America did not participate.
Of those 19 medals, 16 were gold, one was silver and two were bronze.
The men's overall record heading into Paris was 142-6, with half of those losses coming in 2004.
There's little question, though, that the rest of the world has caught up.
Team USA lost to France in the opener in Tokyo three years ago and narrowly won the rematch in the gold-medal game. Though they went a perfect 8-0 in 2016, four of those games were tight. And in three of the five warm-up games in the "USA Basketball Showcase" last month, they were taken right down to the wire by Australia, Germany and South Sudan—none of whom were considered top candidates for gold.
Granted, the whole point of those games was to build team chemistry. It's also very much worth noting that Kevin Durant didn't play in any of those games before putting on a show in the Olympic opener against Serbia. Lo and behold, they've looked better with that 14-time All-Star at their disposal for the first two games, notably making easy work of the South Sudan team that almost upset them a few weeks ago.
We're reasonably confident they'll get the gold.
They did enter Paris as a -550 favorite, after all.
Both Canada and France are legitimate threats, though, and LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Co. might need to go through both of those teams in the knockout portion of the tournament.
And if I've learned anything in more than a decade of covering college basketball, it's that being the heavy favorite doesn't guarantee you a whole lot in a knockout tournament with three-point lines.
Confidence Meter: 9.5
Women's Basketball
10 of 10
Schedule: August 4 at 11:15 a.m. vs. Germany (last game of group play), TBD Quarterfinal on August 7, TBD Semifinal on August 9 (either 11:30 a.m. or 3 p.m.), Gold Medal Game (August 11 at 9:30 a.m.)
Death.
Taxes.
USA winning Olympic gold in women's basketball.
Of the 12 players on this year's roster, the only ones who were even alive the last time the U.S. women suffered a loss in the Olympics are 42-year-old Diana Taurasi in pursuit of her sixth gold medal and Alyssa Thomas, who wasn't quite four months old at the time of that long-ago misstep against the Unified Team in the semifinals in 1992.
The U.S. women entered Paris on a Joe DiMaggio-like streak of 55 consecutive victories, most of those coming by a laughable margin.
We're talking 53 wins by double digits and an average scoring margin of 28.7 points.
They've already reasserted that dominance in pool play, comfortably taking care of 2020 silver medalist Japan in their 102-76 opener.
The second game against Belgium on Thursday was much more competitive. In the end, though, ho hum, another win by double digits, as Sabrina Ionescu splashed in a last-second three in the 87-74 victory.
Caitlin Clark being left off the roster is all anyone could talk about for several weeks after that decision was made, but maybe trust the process?
It has worked every time for more than three decades, and it's going to work again.
The only question is whether any country can keep a game within 10 points this time around.
Confidence Meter: 10
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