British Open 2024: Top Storylines to Track, Latest Odds and Predictions
Rory McIlroy will have the bulk of the British Open spotlight on him at Royal Troon this week.
McIlroy is playing in his first major, and just the second tournament, since he fell apart on the back nine of the U.S. Open and lost to Bryson DeChambeau.
The four-time major winner has come close to ending his decade-long major drought on many occasions. He's come particularly close at The Open with five top-six finishes in the last seven editions of the season's final major.
McIlroy owns the second-best odds to win the Claret Jug behind Scottie Scheffler, but recent British Open history is in favor of a first-time champion.
Brian Harman was the fifth golfer in the last seven Opens to win his first major title on the links of the United Kingdom.
Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood are the best long-time major tournament participants to never win a major. Ludvig Aberg owns the lowest odds of any player without a major, but he's only participated in three majors.
British Open Odds
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Scottie Scheffler (+450; bet $100 to win $450)
Rory McIlroy (+800)
Xander Schauffele (+1100)
Collin Morikawa (+1400)
Ludvig Aberg (+1600)
Bryson DeChambeau (+1800)
Jon Rahm (+2200)
Tyrrell Hatton (+2500)
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)
Viktor Hovland (+3000)
Brooks Koepka (+3000)
Shane Lowry (+4000)
Robert MacIntyre (+4000)
Patrick Cantlay (+4000)
Hideki Matsuyama (+4000)
Cameron Smith (+4000)
How Will Rory McIlroy Bounce Back From U.S. Open Failure?
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McIlroy's decade-long major drought is always one of the most talked-about storylines at a major championship.
But it could come under a larger microscope at Royal Troon because of the heartbreak he suffered at Pinehurst. He missed a few putts from close range to lose out on the U.S. Open to DeChambeau.
McIlroy bounced back on the course with a top-five finish at last week's Scottish Open, but now he faces more pressure inside a major field for the first time since Pinehurst.
McIlroy's had plenty of close calls at The Open, including a third-place finish at St. Andrews behind Cameron Smith two years ago.
The Northern Irishman has been a fixture inside the top 10 at The Open since he won the Claret Jug in 2014. He has five top-six finishes, a tie for 46th and a missed cut in that span.
McIlroy is expected to once again contend this week and there's a decent chance we're talking about him on the back nine on Sunday, which will automatically draw comparisons to Pinehurst.
Will Another First Time Major Winner Capture Claret Jug?
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Henrik Stenson's 2016 triumph at Royal Troon started a run of five first-time major champions in the last seven Opens.
Stenson, Francesco Molinari, Shane Lowry, Cameron Smith and Brian Harman all added their names to the list of major champions in that stretch.
Aberg, Fleetwood and Hatton have the best odds of the non-major winners in the field.
Aberg burst onto the major-tournament scene at The Masters with a second-place finish. He landed in a tie for 12tth at the U.S. Open.
Fleetwood earned a tie for third at Augusta and finished inside the top 30 at all three majors in 2024. He owns back-to-back top-10 finishes at The Open.
Hatton put himself in the top 20 at the last two Opens and has not missed the cut at his last 11 major appearances.
All three players enter Royal Troon in solid form and should feature in some of Sunday's final pairings.
They have to compete with a loaded field, led by McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler, but they've played well enough at majors to be the best options to extend the run of first-time winners at The Open.
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Predictions
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A handful of golfers are built for the links-style golf of The Open.
McIlroy and Fleetwood's back-to-back top-10 Open finishes make them fascinating names to consider to win at Royal Troon.
Although Jordan Spieth hasn't been in good form in 2024, he usually plays well at The Open. He finished inside the top 10 in 2021 and 2022 and he has five career top-five finishes at the major, but he has not finished better than 29th at his last six majors.
Collin Morikawa has not made the cut at The Open since his 2021 victory at Royal St. George's, but he comes into Royal Troon in some of the best major form.
Morikawa took a tie for third at The Masters, a tie for fourth at the PGA Championship and a tie for 14th at the U.S. Open.
He's been one of the most consistent golfers at the big tournaments in 2024 and he is coming off a tie for fourth at last week's Scottish Open.
Of course, Scheffler and McIlroy will be picked by many experts because of their favorite status, but Morikawa's major-tournament consistency and previous success on the links-style courses makes him an intriguing pick to win the Claret Jug.
Prediction: Collin Morikawa wins The Open
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