Will Your Favorite NBA Team Be Better or Worse in 2024-25?
Pretty much every NBA team has wrapped up the main event(s) portion of their 2024 offseason. And that must mean it's decide-whether-your-squad-is-better-or-worse o'clock.
Progress is not linear, as we all hopefully know. Improvement and regression cannot solely be boiled down to wins and losses.
For the purposes of this exercise, though, that's exactly what Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes and Dan Favale are going to do.
This is not about whether your favorite franchise will be better equipped to win playoff games, even if its record slides. Nor is it about whether your squad will have a brighter long-term outlook, thanks to players or extra draft picks, beyond the 2024-25 campaign.
Our mission here is guided by one question: Will each team win more or fewer regular-season games than it did last year?
Atlanta Hawks: Worse
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The darned alphabet is making us kick things off with the mother of all head-scratchers.
On the one hand, the Atlanta Hawks don't have a high bar to clear. Winning more than 36 games in the deep-with-competence-not-powerhouses Eastern Conference isn't an especially tall order.
And to its credit, Atlanta has rebalanced some of the roster with the Dejounte Murray trade. Two extra first-rounders are always useful in prospective trades, and both Dyson Daniels and Larry Nance Jr. should be non-negotiable rotation players from the jump.
Deliberately veering away from 36-win territory and into more of a caps-lock REBUILD might be on the table...if the San Antonio Spurs didn't control the Hawks' next three draft picks. This squad has the incentive to #goforit.
On the other hand, what in the actual heck does going for it look like?
Trae Young is officially closer to underrated than overrated. The defensive issues will never dissipate, not even when he tries, which he's done for like a season-and-a-half now. But he's an offensive superstar. Atlanta outscored opponents by 3.1 points per 100 possessions last year during his minutes without Murray.
This organization has a tentpole player. That's a big deal. But the rest of the roster doesn't tilt the Hawks in an obvious direction. They will be reliant on at least two youngsters, in Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher, and neither Jalen Johnson nor Onyeka Okongu is what you'd call a known commodity.
Even more uncertainty is found in Atlanta's most glaring needs. Losing Murray has created a secondary-playmaking void. Some of it can and will be filled by Bogdan Bogdanović. After him, good luck. Will Daniels soak up point guard reps? Will the Hawks suddenly depend on sophomore Kobe Bufkin?
Beyond that, does this team even have a two-way wing? Daniels' offensive game is limited, though he's displayed nice feel. De'Andre Hunter is more like a 1.65-way wing. Does Risacher already need to fill that role?
There may not be a franchise in a more confounding position than Atlanta. And a lack of fundamental clarity doesn't typically lead to victories—literal or figurative.
—Favale
Boston Celtics: Worse
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Consider the Boston Celtics a casualty of their own success.
Improving upon a 64-win regular season is, like, impossible under the most ideal circumstances. Though the Celtics are sitting pretty by returning their entire championship core, they won't be without hiccups.
Kristaps Porziņģis' health is the biggest wrinkle of all. He will miss the start of next year and probably won't suit up before Christmas after undergoing surgery to repair a torn retinaculum and dislocated posterior tibialis tendon in his left leg. Who knows what he'll look like upon return, or how much he'll be able to play on a nightly basis.
Increasing the workload of 38-year-old Al Horford before the postseason is a risky proposition. Boston has Luke Kornet, Xavier Tillman and Neemias Queta to trot out, but all of them represent a stark drop-off from both Horford and Porziņģis
This says nothing of what could be a deeper Eastern Conference. The New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers were already two of the Celtics' immediate "rivals," and both are significantly better.
The Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers will be more menacing if they're healthier. Less established squads like the Indiana Pacers and Orlando Magic were already good and could pop.
None of which means that Boston is screwed. Its continuity alone is enough to declare its championship stock in better shape compared to last year. But it's unfair, even irrational, to expect a generationally good regular-season team to level up its dominance while missing a critical rotation piece. Especially when they have no business caring about anything other than preserving itself for a (totally plausible, if not likely) championship repeat.
–Favale
Brooklyn Nets: Worse, Worse, Worse
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Just in case it wasn't already clear: The Brooklyn Nets are in the pooper for Cooper (Flagg).
Should the deliberateness with which they'll suck make them more enjoyable to watch? That likely depends on how you feel about sitting through 37 shots per game from Cameron Thomas.
Don't listen to anyone sugarcoating this. The Nets didn't just trade Mikal Bridges for (all of the) draft picks. They gave up longer-distance first-rounders to re-acquire the rights to two of their own (2025 and 2026) from the Houston Rockets. You don't head down that path unless you're planning to, and counting on, spitting out a bottom-five record.
Perhaps Brooklyn stumbles into more success than expected out of the gate. We have seen it happen before. Hell, it's happened in Utah each of the past two seasons.
In the event of accidental victories, though, the Nets will unmake themselves. There's no guarantee Dorian Finney-Smith and Cameron Johnson will still be on the roster for opening night, let alone after February's trade deadline. Nicolas Claxton will become a trade candidate as soon as his restriction lifts in mid-December. Rookie head coach Jori Fernandez might just mess around and have Ben Simmons uncork 27-footers off pindowns.
Say it with me: Brooklyn is going to stink worse than a corpse flower hosed exclusively with months-old whole milk stored in direct sunlight. And that isn't just OK.
It's necessary—and by design.
—Favale
Charlotte Hornets: Better
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Coming off a 21-win season certainly works in the Charlotte Hornets' favor here. But this isn't just about their potential to move from the cesspool into the sub-basement. They have quietly assembled a legitimate NBA roster.
Just look at this (loosely) projected rotation:
- Starters: LaMelo Ball, Josh Green, Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, Mark Williams
- Primary Reserves: Seth Curry, Cody Martin, Vasilije Micić, Nick Richards, Tidjane Salaun, Grant Williams
Yes, Charlotte remains in the early stages of this rebuild. And it's now run by a first-time head coach in Charles Lee. Whatever.
Better health from LaMelo and Williams alone will render them a lot better. That's before baking in potential development from both, as well Miller and, perhaps, Green.
Maybe the Hornets wind up jettisoning some of their more proven depth. Short of moving on from LaMelo, though, nobody's prospective departure would consign them to 20-wins-or-fewer territory.
—Favale
Chicago Bulls: Worse
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Don't look now, but the Chicago Bulls might just be charting a new direction. Where, exactly, are they headed? I have no idea. But they're doing something different.
Should we rule out a scenario in which Chicago forks over first-round equity to continue its play-in pursuits? Absolutely not.
Benefit of the doubt belongs to those who have earned it. The Bulls have not. But they have walked away from some of their most important players—Alex Caruso, DeMar DeRozan, Andre Drummond—without adding viable replacements.
Whether they made the most of those departures is debatable. (It's actually not. They didn't.) And there remains plenty of proven and up-and-coming talent on the roster.
Coby White is fresh off a Most Improved Player bid and can get better. Don't sleep on Ayo Dosunmu continuing to broaden his scoring horizons. This could be the year Patrick Williams is both healthy and an offensive constant.
Perhaps the Bulls have rallied together just enough spacing to optimize Josh Giddey. It looks like Zach LaVine may have to don Chicago colors again after all. Ditto for Nikola Vučević. Matas Buzelis looms as a sneaky Rookie of the Year candidate when you factor in skill and prospective opportunity. Lonzo Ball may actually play.
Still, the Bulls have so far (kind of) telegraphed that their intentions skew towards the bigger picture. More talent sheddings are on the way. Even if they're not, the sheer reliance on Giddey and a rookie should ensure that Chicago is no longer in its 39-to-40-wins era.
—Favale
Cleveland Cavaliers: Better
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Next season's Cleveland Cavaliers can be viewed through one of two lenses. The first: Better availability will lead to a better product.
Darius Garland (25), Donovan Mitchell (27) and Evan Mobley (32) all racked up at least 25 absences last year. Meanwhile, Cleveland's Core Four of these three plus Jarrett Allen took the floor together in just 28 games. If that latter number goes up, so too should the Cavs' win total—unless you believe better collective availability will have the inverse effect.
That brings us to our second lens: functional overlap.
Can Mitchell and Garland do a better job of playing off one another? Do they even want to? Will new head coach Kenny Atkinson lean into more dual-big minutes with Allen and Mobley? Or will the heavy staggering continue? Or grow even starker? How much of this question depends on Mobley's appetite for juicing up his three-point volume? Is he actually a center?
The Allen-Mobley dynamic has captivated the most attention. Understandably so. Cleveland's offensive rating with Garland, Mitchell and Mobley went from 115.4 (52nd percentile) when playing beside Jarrett Allen to 121.7 (91st percentile) in lineups with Mobley as the sole big.
This isn't enough evidence to mandate the Cavs cannonball into a new identity and the transactional overhaul it'll require. The latter sample size was tiny (249 possessions), and writing off dual-big setup presumes Mobley won't get better.
And hey, staggering your four best players is hardly a nightmare scenario. Atkinson will have a better understanding of how to do it after watching what worked during Cleveland's hottest shorthanded stretches last year.
Let's also not forget the Cavs blasted opponents by over 10 points per 100 possessions with their Core Four on the floor in 2022-23, when they were newer to each other and the supporting cast was worse. Even if Isaac Okoro (restricted) doesn't come back, it's possible Cleveland is a sleeping giant about to awake after a year of hibernation.
Fifty wins isn't just in play. It should be the expectation.
—Favale
Dallas Mavericks: Better
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Don't be suckered into thinking the Dallas Mavericks were only a 50-win team last year. After remaking the roster at the trade deadline, Dallas' defense surged and produced a 12-3 stretch to close out the season.
Their run to the Finals was just more evidence that the Mavs were better than their record showed.
Dallas lost Derrick Jones Jr. in free agency, which could mean some slippage on defense if Naji Marshall can't replicate Jones' disruptive work and hustle. That said, Klay Thompson's elite spot-up shooting could help offset whatever's lost on that D. He gives the Mavs, who finished eighth in offensive efficiency last year, a real shot to rank No. 1.
It's possible that a step forward from second-year center Dereck Lively II will land Dallas in among the top 10 on D, even without Jones. If that happens, the Mavs could push up toward 60 wins.
Plus, what if this is the year Luka Dončić finally gets into peak shape?
The Mavericks project to be one of the top four teams in a stacked Western Conference and could secure the top overall seed if a motivated Dončić brings his absolute best. This feels like a team with a 55-win floor.
-Hughes
Denver Nuggets: Worse
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The Denver Nuggets won 57 games last season, a figure that outpaced the 54.9 victories their point differential says they deserved. That means there's a case to be made that the Nuggets would be worse next season even if they brought back the exact same roster.
Unfortunately for Denver, ownership's unwillingness to spend deeper into the tax cost it starting shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who departed for a three-year, $66 million contract with the Orlando Magic.
Depending on how you feel about Michael Porter Jr., KCP was either the Nuggets fourth or fifth-best player. His exit isn't catastrophic, and the organization seems to think Christian Braun is ready to step in as an impact starter. A live-wire energy player and rugged defender, Braun has his merits. But he won't come close to matching KCP's value as a spacer. The departing veteran guard shot at least 38.5 percent from deep in each of the last five seasons.
Nikola Jokič will keep the offense humming like he always has, and Denver's floor will be high as long as the three-time MVP is healthy. But the fact remains that the Nuggets lost a member of the best high-volume five-man unit in the league and haven't made any meaningful additions to the roster.
Unless several of the team's young guards and wings get significantly better, the Nuggets aren't going to win another 57 games.
-Hughes
Detroit Pistons: Better
9 of 30
Ticketing the Detroit Pistons for more than—*checks notes*—14 wins ranks among the easiest decisions of this exercise. Teams actively trying to lose can tank their way to more than a baker's dozenish Ws.
This is more than that, though.
Detroit has not made any mega splashes under new lead executive Trajan Langdon. But its roster is chock full of real, live, actual spacing following the additions of Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Tobias Harris. along with the return of Simone "Might Be The Summer's Biggest Bargain" Fontecchio.
Do not confuse this with utter admiration for the Pistons' direction. Harris' addition is sensible—justifiable, even. A two-year, $52 million deal is still an overpay, even when weighed against Detroit paying the "We're still going to be bad" tax. The Pistons also definitely didn't get enough to take on Hardaway from Dallas and send back Quentin Grimes.
But this is all a start. And it's a launching pad that includes a pathway to steady three-out lineups mixed with a reasonable dose of four-out combinations and the potential to unbottle five-out arrangements with Isaiah Stewart at the 5.
Whereas last year's spacing was oft-hopeless, Detroit has forged perimeter optionality. And even in its undefined form, this should benefit the developments of Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Jaden Ivey, Ron Holland and Jalen Duren.
The wrinkle in all of this? The Pistons' most important long-term prospects don't exactly complement one another. Playing Cunningham, Thompson, Ivey, Holland and Duren is basically a non-option out of the gate unless someone other than Cade starts knocking down threes.
Regardless, the depth chart is both deeper and a notch or four more coherent. So, you know, congrats to the 2024-25 Pistons on winning more than 17.1 percent of their games!
—Favale
Golden State Warriors: Better
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If Stephen Curry isn't still a surefire All-NBA player in his age-36 season, you can probably disregard everything that comes next. But in the event he produces another scoring average in the high 20s with a true shooting percentage north of 60.0 percent, Curry should get enough help from a revamped roster to beat last year's 46 wins.
Jonathan Kuminga flashed stardom in a larger role last year and should hit that level more consistently in his age-22 season. Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis showed enough as rookies to earn invites to the USA Select team, and the former was good enough to unseat Klay Thompson from the starting five for a chunk of last season.
Maybe this will finally be the year Moses Moody sticks in the regular rotation, and it's hard to imagine how Andrew Wiggins could be any worse than he was last season.
Optimistically, De'Anthony Melton will provide more two-way value than Thompson, while Buddy Hield will juice the Warriors' outside shooting. Kyle Anderson will bring much-needed secondary facilitation and defense, functioning as a credible Draymond Green stand-in for whenever the Dubs' unpredictable veteran gets himself suspended.
Those three new additions could easily outproduce Golden State's outgoing pieces: Thompson, Chris Paul and Dario Sarić.
Finally, Golden State was involved in trade chatter surrounding Paul George and keeps coming up as a Lauri Markkanen suitor. The Warriors missed out on George and may never land Markkanen, but it's telling that they're on the hunt for big upgrades. With young pieces and picks to send out, Golden State could trade its way to a better record if the current roster underwhelms early in the year.
-Hughes
Houston Rockets: Better
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The Houston Rockets added 19 wins to their year-over-year total last season, climbing from 22 victories to 41. It's hard to foresee another leap quite that big, but it'd be a surprise if a team this young didn't take another step forward.
Everything about this group screams improvement is ahead.
Houston is absolutely loaded with players whose trend lines are angling up, which is what tends to happen when you make high lottery picks for several seasons in a row. Jalen Green caught fire late last year, Alperen Sengün was a legitimate All-Star candidate, Jabari Smith Jr. shot 36.3 percent from deep and cranked up his defense, Amen Thompson flashed game-changing athleticism, fellow game-wrecker Tari Eason should be healthier, Cam Whitmore was a walking bucket and incoming rookie Reed Sheppard's shooting should translate immediately.
The oldest player in that group, Eason, will play his age-23 season in 2024-25.
As long as Fred VanVleet holds up as he enters his 30s and Green's closing run proves more rule than exception, the Rockets should make a return to the playoffs after a four-year absence.
-Hughes
Indiana Pacers: Better
12 of 30
Clearing 47 victories in an Eastern Conference where there may be fewer total wins to go around isn't a given for the Indiana Pacers. It's also tough to imagine their total retreating, like, at all.
Indiana raked in 47 wins despite Tyrese Haliburton missing 13 games and looking like a shell of himself for much of his return from a hamstring injury. The team also turned over its rotation midstream with the Pascal Siakam trade and by jettisoning Buddy Hield at the deadline. And then, of course, Bennedict Mathurin appeared in just 59 regular-season games and zero playoff contests.
Writing off Mathurin's absence given the finite number of touches to go around on offense is somewhat fair. But Haliburton's time away and play upon return cannot be dismissed. He profiled as an All-NBA First Team lock before his hamstring got in the way.
A healthier version of Haliburton appearing in even the same number of games should bank at least a couple of more victories. Tack on the Pacers' chance to go through a full training camp with Siakam integrated into the fold, and this a roster that has 50-win chops without getting continued development or leaps from Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard and Jarace Walker.
—Favale
LA Clippers: Worse
13 of 30
The LA Clippers' 51 wins last year were partially the result of Kawhi Leonard producing his healthiest season (68 games) since 2016-17. History said he was unlikely to match that number next year, and that was true before the knee injury that knocked him out of the playoffs also prevented him from sticking with Team USA ahead of the Paris Olympics.
Leonard habitually ends seasons on the shelf. If he starts this one with an injury, LA could fall apart in a hurry.
Paul George is gone, James Harden is a year further into his decline phase and there's no high-upside youth on the roster—unless you're sold on reclamation project Kevin Porter Jr. playing a winning brand of ball for the first time in his career.
In other words, the Clippers are fading into obscurity right before our eyes.
Actually, that process was apparent late last year. Though they finished with those 51 wins and a plus-3.4 net rating that ranked fifth in the West, the Clippers crumbled down the stretch. After the All-Star break, they were just 15-14 and were outscored by 0.5 points per 100 possessions.
That post-break performance is a good approximation of what's ahead.
-Hughes
Los Angeles Lakers: Worse
14 of 30
If you could guarantee a repeat of remarkably healthy seasons for both LeBron James and Anthony Davis, there'd be an argument for the Los Angeles Lakers at least matching last year's 47 wins.
It'd still be a tough one to make, as the West has only gotten deeper over the summer, and massive uncertainty surrounds first-year head coach JJ Redick. What's more, the Lakers also haven't signed a free agent to replace Taurean Prince, who logged over 2,100 minutes (fifth on the team) last year. When you're worried about replacing a guy who averaged 8.9 points per game and never satisfied fans as a starter, it's a pretty good sign your depth is lacking.
In addition to those complicating factors, there's also this: James' 71 games were his most since 2017-18, and Davis' 76 were a career high.
Even if Redick is more Steve Kerr than Steve Nash, the Lakers acquire someone of consequence in free agency and they improve themselves via a midseason D'Angelo Russell trade, there's still no way to get past the wild unlikelihood of LeBron and AD combining to miss just 17 contests again.
-Hughes
Memphis Grizzlies: Better
15 of 30
This is the easiest "better" call in the West. The Memphis Grizzlies took a full-on gap year last season and should rebound to the level they hit in 2021-22 and 2022-23, when they won 56 and 51 games, respectively.
That means penciling them in for something close to twice this past season's total of 27 wins.
In the nine-game cameo he made between suspension and injury last year, Ja Morant looked very much like the player who finished seventh and 12th in MVP voting during his last two healthy seasons. Morant is entering his age-25 campaign with what should be a laser-focused prove-it mentality. He deserves mention in any serious preseason forecast of next year's All-NBA players.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is also heading into his age-25 season and should be motivated to get back to contending for Defensive Player of the Year, an award he won in 2022-23 after finishing fifth in voting the year prior.
Desmond Bane should be available for more than last year's 42 games and won't be so overtaxed as a creator with Morant back. If he and Marcus Smart stay healthy, the Grizzlies will have a 80 percent of a balanced starting five with no shortage of playoff experience.
Zach Edey has looked impressive in stretches during Summer League, last year's injuries allowed youngsters like GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr. to emerge and Memphis should be supercharged by a desire to show it still belongs among the league's up-and-coming powerhouses.
-Hughes
Miami Heat: Worse
16 of 30
Tradition dictates we explain why the Miami Heat will be worse this time around only to then watch them win more games and/or travel further in the playoffs than the season before. I can't get there anymore.
Last year's Heat squad rattled off 46 wins, two more than it did in 2022-23, when it reached the Finals. Leapfrogging that total isn't off the table.
Jimmy Butler missed roughly one-quarter of the season while Tyler Herro was on the shelf for approximately half of the schedule. Midseason trade acquisition Terry Rozier likewise ended the year on the sidelines. Better availability alone could propel Miami to a smattering of more victories.
Except, we're officially past the point in which we can presume better health. Butler is always dealing with...something. He also turns 35 in September. While just 24, Herro is hardly a billboard for durability himself.
Standout sophomore Nikola Jović, meanwhile, is set to miss the 2024 Olympics in Paris with a fractured ankle. This is an issue that, at minimum, could adversely impact his ramp-up for the regular season.
Individual improvement from within Miami's ranks is likely a given anyway. Jaime Jaquez Jr. finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting—and inside the top 10 of Sixth Man of the Year—for a reason. Alec Burks on a minimum deal is a rock-solid addition. Rozier should be more acclimated if he's healthy.
That's not enough to reignite the "Heat going to Heat" rallying cries. And Miami no longer has the collection of assets necessary to land a marquee trade target without heaping amounts of luck. This is a team that, until proven otherwise, seems like it's on the downswing.
—Favale
Milwaukee Bucks: Better
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Most of the Milwaukee Bucks' 2023-24 season was punctuated by disappointment. They underachieved relative to expectations—both internal and external. Yet, for all the hullabaloo over whether they should bust up the core, this team is well positioned to demonstrably improve.
Keeping the same coach for the entire season will go a long way by itself. The Giannis Antetokounmpo-Damian Lillard dynamic will get better. And if it doesn't, Lillard still has room for a more convincing campaign.
Age-34 seasons are not typically conducive to improvement. But the learning curve, both on and off the court, shouldn't be as steep. More basically, Damian Lillard, of all people, isn't going to can under 33 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes again.
Missed time is now part and parcel of the Khris Middleton experience. But he's due for a 60-plus-game season. And for as much as they underachieved last season, the Bucks still took care of business with their best dudes on the court. Milwaukee outscored opponents by 16.3 points per 100 possessions when Antetokounmpo, Lillard, Middleton and Brook Lopez all shared the court.
Slick work on the margins of the roster this offseason only bolsters the Bucks' better-not-worse case. Minimum signings are almost always over-glorified, but Milwaukee nabbed three players who were prominent rotation staples last year in Taurean Prince, Delon Wright and, most notably of all, Gary Trent Jr.
Supplemental athleticism remains a weak spot. And the point-of-attack defense isn't solved by the addition of Wright. But harping on perfection is the enemy of appreciating what's good. And the Bucks, imperfections and all, are set up to be really, ridiculously, 50-wins-or-better good.
—Favale
Minnesota Timberwolves: Better
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This feels risky because the Minnesota Timberwolves are coming one of the best seasons in franchise history, but through Ant all things are possible.
If Anthony Edwards is who we think he is, the Wolves have a real shot to eclipse last year's 57 wins. Whether that'll be enough to win the West is a separate question we don't need to answer here.
Just understand that Edwards' prolonged stretches of show-out play in the postseason, combined with charismatic confidence reminiscent of Kobe and MJ, means something more than last year's "in the conversation" No. 7 finish in MVP voting could be in store. The relentlessly competitive streak that defines Ant as much as his megawatt smile is the kind of standard-setting quality that practically forces maximum intensity out of teammates.
It's hard to imagine Minnesota coasting if Edwards continues to bring it on both ends.
More broadly, there's no reason to believe the Wolves' top-ranked defense is going to slip from its perch. And despite the lack of experienced depth behind aging point guard Mike Conley, Minnesota's offense could take a step forward if Edwards, who averaged a career-high 5.1 assists last year, continues his growth as a playmaker.
-Hughes
New Orleans Pelicans: Better
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It's terrifying to forecast more than last year's 49 wins with Zion Williamson's health record once again looming as an enormous variable. Do we give him credit for playing a career-best 70 games and assume his days of persistent injury and iffy conditioning are over, or do we trust the larger sample that suggests last season was the anomaly?
In the spirit of optimism, we're going with the former. Let's pencil Zion in for 67 games and some All-NBA consideration—with room for something better than that if he can hit a few jumpers and defend more consistently.
New Orleans' roster feels unfinished, but it could reshape things for the better by swapping Brandon Ingram for a center and leaning into a future where Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones get basically all of the wing minutes next to Williamson. Those two, unlike Ingram, have the ability to contribute as lower-usage support pieces who can add value in ways other than self-sufficient shot creation.
If the ball is in Zion's hands most of the time, Ingram's best attributes matter less.
Dejounte Murray isn't a star but will help on both ends as a facilitator and defender, and he might be even better positioned to succeed if the Pels can flip CJ McCollum for more of a three-and-D shooting guard.
Lastly, New Orleans' point differential was that of a 52-win team in 2023-24. With a roster that looks better on paper (pending a center addition), it shouldn't be too hard for the Pelicans to crack the 50-win mark.
-Hughes
New York Knicks: Better
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Arguing against the New York Knicks improving upon their 50-win finish should be easier. They are attempting to make the hardest leap of all: that transition from really good to genuinely great. Their margin for error is nil.
Worry warts will point to the implementation of Mikal Bridges—and, perhaps more forcefully, the re-integration of Julius Randle, who finished with just 46 appearances due to a shoulder injury. The concern is fair...to an extent. Bridges is new, and Randle is not some afterthought accessory. There could be a learning curve.
Or the Knicks could just dominate like they did after landing OG Anunoby.
New York squashed opponents by 26.1 points per 100 possessions when Anunoby shared the floor with Randle and Jalen Brunson. Incorporating Bridges should be similarly hunky-dory. He has more on-ball skills than Anunoby but isn't someone who commands or monopolizes touches.
And Randle, for all his flaws, did much better ancillary work prior to his injury. If the willingness to fit inside the Knicks' larger context persists, his added shot creation is a boon, not a potential bust. And his utility increases tenfold if head coach Tom Thibodeau is willing to play him on the frontline as the de facto 5 on offense alongside Anunoby.
Health is a bigger caveat for this team than others. Anunoby always seems to get banged up, and while this group is certainly wired to embrace Thibs' sleep-when-your-dead mantra, wear and tear can build up.
What if Brunson misses actual time or isn't a top-five MVP candidate? And, oh yeah, Isaiah Hartenstein is gone. That matters. But Randle and Mitchell Robinson (31 appearances) should be healthier. That matters, too. And while you could pencil in a slight regular season regression for the sake of playoff preservation, you should also know better. Thibodeau teams aren't programmed that way.
—Favale
Oklahoma City Thunder: Better
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Standings-wise, there's nowhere to go but down for the Oklahoma City Thunder. They finished atop the West in 2023-24, tied with the Nuggets at 57 wins. Only the champion Boston Celtics piled up more victories.
Last year will not be the peak of OKC's rapid ascent.
While MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will find it hard to improve on last season's performance, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren should both be better. Considering those two 2022 draftees both performed near All-Star levels, that's no small claim. In fact, let's go a step further: The Thunder will have at least two All-NBA honorees next season, and Holmgren will finish among the top five in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
Growth is also on the way for Cason Wallace, who played a major rotation role, was a plus defender and shot 41.9 percent from deep as a rookie.
Trade acquisition Alex Caruso will bring some of the best perimeter defense in the league to a roster that already has aces in Lu Dort and Holmgren on that end, and free-agent signee Isaiah Hartenstein should address the Thunder's lack of interior heft and rebounding.
Throw in a towering pile of trade assets that could easily land another star in Oklahoma City, and this team seems destined to vault over the 60-win mark.
-Hughes
Orlando Magic: Better
22 of 30
If you're like me, you're more than a tad bummed the Orlando Magic have yet to more aggressively pursue a high-volume outside marksman, shot creator and/or offensive organizer. And yet, if you're like me, you also recognize this shouldn't prevent them from improving off last year's 47-win total.
Orlando is currently banking on internal growth and, above all, playmaking-by-committee to jazz up the offense. That's a risky proposition, even if you believe in Paolo Banchero's everything (yes), Jalen Suggs' shooting and passing (also yes) and Franz Wagner's 2023-24 perimeter efficiency being a one-year blip (debatable).
Still, the vast majority of the Magic's most important players should get better. And adding Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the nucleus of a top-two defense is a chef's kiss emoji. Even if his shooting splits keep slipping, his arrival positions Orlando to flirt with a 50-win benchmark.
And finally, if you're still like me, you haven't completely ruled out the Magic going bigger-name hunting before next season tips off or in advance of February's trade deadline. They have plenty of movable contracts, all of their own draft picks and Denver's 2025 first-rounder (top-three protection) to peddle in negotiations.
Whether it's a smaller move (Malcolm Brogdon?), medium-sized swing (Anfernee Simons?) or create-your-own-trade-market-in-an-attempt-to-crash-the-inner-circle-of-contenders dice roll (LaMelo Ball?), Orlando remains in the have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too phase of its ascent.
—Favale
Philadelphia 76ers: Better
23 of 30
There aren't many one-two-three punches that strike a better balance than the trio of Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey. The 1-3-5 dynamic looks pleasantly symmetrical on paper, and their collaboration verges on divine in theory.
Embiid, George and Maxey are the rare star trio in which everyone is intimately familiar with generating their own shot and playing off others. Indeed, their fit is merely conceptual at the moment. But the Philadelphia 76ers just outpaced opponents by 16.4 points per 100 possessions when Embiid and Maxey shared the floor with Tobias Harris. The latter's spot now goes to Paul freaking George.
It helps that Maxey, going on 24, still hasn't hit his peak. And it's comparably important that Philly isn't Phoenix Suns East. Not only is the Sixers' Big Three more of a comprehensive package, but they delivered a masterclass in cap-space management by bringing back Kyle Lowry and Kelly Oubre Jr. while adding Andre Drummond, Eric Gordon and Caleb Martin.
K.J. Martin's human-trade-exception deal (two years, $16 million; second season non-guaranteed) is likewise part of the calculus. Between his salary, the ability to aggregate and a handful of future first-round picks to trade, Philly has the bandwidth to make meaningful midseason additions.
Devil's advocates will gesture toward Embiid's and, to a lesser degree, George's spotty health. That's fair. But that's the luxury of having Maxey and actual depth. The Sixers should never be so short-handed they can't eke out wins.
Speaking of which: Philly put together 47 victories last season despite Embiid appearing in just 39 games. View the Sixers as boom-or-bust if you like. There are scant few scenarios in which they finish next season with under 50 wins.
—Favale
Phoenix Suns: Worse
24 of 30
If Kevin Durant has another 75 All-NBA-caliber games in him, maybe we'll need to adjust our thinking. But the durability KD showed last year was a departure from the norm. He hadn't played that much since tearing his Achilles, and he's already had a calf issue cost him time with Team USA this summer.
Heading into his age-36 season, Durant is a long shot to be on the floor for anything close to the 2,791 minutes (sixth in the league) he logged last year.
Even assuming another outlier health year from KD, the Phoenix Suns still have major depth issues that grow more severe whenever one of their top players misses time. Limited by the second apron, Phoenix will again try to get rotation-level production out of minimum-salaried players.
Monte Morris and Mason Plumlee may or may not outproduce Eric Gordon and Drew Eubanks, who signed elsewhere after one-season stints with the Suns.
Maybe if Devin Booker repeats last season's 68 games and Bradley Beal can suit up for more than 53, the Suns won't find themselves asking end-of-bench guys to sop up so many rotation minutes. It's also possible new head coach Mike Budenholzer continues his trend of establishing reliably successful regular-season schemes on both ends.
Ultimately, it's tough to believe a team this top heavy and injury-prone can best last year's 49 wins.
-Hughes
Portland Trail Blazers: Worse
25 of 30
No team has dimmer playoff hopes in the stacked West than the Portland Trail Blazers, who won just 21 games last year and who also have multiple veterans to trade away for assets better suited to their rebuild.
Malcolm Brogdon is already gone. Turn Jerami Grant and Deandre Ayton into picks and bad salary, and that's another 3,600 minutes Portland can hand over to rookies like Donovan Clingan and young prospects like Jabari Walker or Kris Murray. Deni Avdija, the main return in the Brogdon deal, is good enough to give us pause about guaranteeing Portland's continued slide down the standings, but there's enough youth elsewhere on the roster to set a very low floor.
Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe could be better, but that's not the same thing as saying they're ready to drive winning. Odds are they'll keep taking their lumps, especially if the Blazers ship out their stabilizing vets.
Most years, we get a couple of teams that finish with win totals in the teens. Portland is one of the league's best bets for that distinction in 2024-25.
-Hughes
Sacramento Kings: Worse
26 of 30
The DeMar DeRozan trade raised the Sacramento Kings' overall talent level and should help them get back to the form they showed while leading the league in scoring efficiency during the 2022-23 season.
Will that be enough to cancel out the introduction of another poor defender to a roster that already had a few too many? And what about the fit issues that could arise from three players—DeRozan, De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis—who are best with the ball and don't provide much value away from it?
You could even make the case that Keegan Murray's development, encouraging through his first two years, could be hindered by sliding down to fifth-option status when he plays with Fox, DeRozan, Sabonis and Malik Monk. On the other end, Murray will often be the only high-quality defender in Sacramento's lineup.
There's definitely a chance the Kings as a whole are worse than the sum of their parts.
Full disclosure: Rather than "better" or "worse", I would have picked "same" if we had it as a third option. Another 46 wins feels just about right when weighing the high- and low-end outcomes. But factoring in the possibility that several teams the Kings topped in the standings—Memphis, Houston and maybe even the San Antonio Spurs—could vault ahead of them made "worse" the close-call choice.
-Hughes
San Antonio Spurs: Better
27 of 30
Victor Wembanyama is going to make an All-NBA team, finish no worse than third in Defensive Player of the Year voting and add substantially to his historic rookie averages of 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 3.6 blocks per game.
That, by the way, is the conservative outlook.
On the more aggressive side, no one should rule out Wembanyama finishing among the top five in MVP voting (or winning it!), becoming the first player to average at least 5.0 blocks and 5.0 assists or pulling off any other seemingly far-fetched feats.
Banking on the San Antonio Spurs winning a lot more games isn't just about Wemby, though. It's about who's around him.
Last year, the Spurs were outscored by 6.3 points per 100 possessions overall, but they actually put up a plus-5.2 net rating whenever Wembanyama shared the floor with Tre Jones, a point guard who'd have a hard time starting for any other team in the league. Swap Jones out for surefire Hall of Famer Chris Paul, and San Antonio could win those CP3-Wemby minutes by 10.0 points per 100 possessions.
The Spurs won 22 games last year. As long as Wemby stays healthy, they're going to be likelier to lose just 22 games in any given season over the next decade or so.
-Hughes
Toronto Raptors: Better
28 of 30
Life, death, taxes and...yours truly being higher on the Toronto Raptors than consensus.
To be fair, we're talking about drumming up a 25-win total. That's not a gargantuan ask.
Toronto has gobs of question marks, but the quartet of RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl and Immanuel Quickley posted a net rating of 11.5 across 500-plus possessions. Extrapolating that sample size while caking in improvement for Barnes and Quickley (mainly live-dribble playmaking) gives the Raptors a line to immediate competence.
Not that anything here is a given. Maybe IQ doesn't have the floor-general gene. Perhaps Barrett's finishing and/or outside shooting falls off from his time in Toronto last season. This roster has tons of talent, but it doesn't have a clear-cut fifth-most important player. Is it Gradey Dick? Ja'Kobe Walter? Bruce Brown Jr.? Kelly Olynyk?
Dependable shooting could also be available in short supply. So much of the Raptors' floor balance rests on Barnes and Barrett holding serve at last season's peaks and continued progression from Dick (who had a very strong close to his rookie campaign).
None of these prospective hangups, along with some others, register as my biggest concern. I'm more caught up in the agenda of team president Masai Ujiri.
Extending Barnes at the max and paying Quickley (five years, $162.5 million) while having Barrett and Poeltl on the books implies a certain devotion to the present. But the Raptors are also dripping with optionality—dispensable pieces and digestible contracts.
If they prove to be more of an immediate threat, will Ujiri and the front office steer into the ascent? Or will they look to maximize their draft-pick stock ahead of a deeper 2025 rookie class?
I have no idea, educated or otherwise. I do know that, even if Toronto has all eyes on the future, 26 wins isn't asking all that much.
—Favale
Utah Jazz: Worse
29 of 30
Fail to tank once, shame on you. Fail to tank twice, shame on the Utah Jazz.
Don't expect Utah to make it three straight years of better-than-anticipated starts giving way to stretch-run shutdowns. This time, the Jazz are going to take more of a start-to-finish approach, and that shouldn't change whether Lauri Markkanen is on the roster or not.
In fact, the strength of the 2025 draft is one of the best arguments for trading Markkanen away. He's too good to play on a tanker.
Outside of the Blazers, Utah is the West's most likely mail-in outfit. It missed on prime position in the last two drafts because it was competent in the early part of the season, banking too many victories to win the race to the bottom of the standings. Assuming a Markkanen trade brings back picks and young players, the Jazz will be perfectly situated to turn the team over to prospects, develop them and let the losses mount.
Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks and Walker Kessler all have tons of promise, but they aren't ready to deliver real success on the floor yet. The same is true for 2024 draftees Cody Williams and Isaiah Collier. Give most of those guys 30-plus minutes a night, and the rest will take care of itself.
There's a lot of room below the Jazz's win total of 31 last season, which makes this an even easier pick.
-Hughes
Washington Wizards: Worse
30 of 30
Washington Wizards fans are free to indulge their inner range monster for yours truly positing that this team will be worse than last year's 15-win iteration.
Conversely, you could also be ecstatic and impressed that I believe your front office is this committed to the bigger picture.
Granted, opting for "worse" over "better" is not an easy decision. Fourteen or fewer wins is the opposite of a lot. But the Wizards are willingly embarking on what should be an even rougher campaign.
Shipping out Deni Avdija makes them worse. Full stop. He entered the Most Improved Player periphery once they upped his offensive responsibility. Surrendering him built up their asset base, including potential primary-playmaker-of-the-future of Bub Carrington. But the operative word here is future.
Washington is slated to depend heavily on two rookies (Carrington and Alex Sarr) and a sophomore (Bilal "Higher Ceiling Than You Think" Coulibaly). That's not a recipe for extra victories—and this is before factoring in the Kyshawn George of it all. He should be getting minutes right off the bat.
Veterans like Malcolm Brogdon, Kyle Kuzma and Jonas Valančiūnas offer steadying hands and the higher ceilings that come with them. But I will be shocked if more than one of them is on the Wizards past the trade deadline. And unless Jordan Poole is on the precipice of reinvention, his veteran presence is conducive to more extreme tanking.
Fun will be had in Washington. The Wizards might be an under-the-radar league pass team depending on how much agency they bestow upon Carrington and Coulibaly. But the fun kind of really bad is still really bad. And unlike a lot of other potential not-good-on-purpose squads, Washington figures to bottom out from the season's onset rather than having to pivot 25-plus games into the schedule.
—Favale
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
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