Hot Takes, Predictions for Packers' Most Impactful Free Agent Signings
The Green Bay Packers aren't typically a team to get too involved in free agency. As a franchise that leans heavily into a draft-and-develop strategy, they routinely bring in one of the smallest external free agent classes.
That trend mostly continued in 2024. The Packers only signed four free agents from other teams this offseason.
However, the ones they ddi target were notable. Xavier McKinney is being trusted to address a need the Packers have had for at least two years, Josh Jacobs is headed for a big role in the offense and kicker Greg Joseph will bring a veteran presence to a three-way kicking battle in the preseason.
Here, we'll take a look at these three signings and make some predictions for what their 2024 holds.
Xavier McKinney Will Earn First Pro Bowl Nod
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Xavier McKinney's contract stands out among all of the safeties signed in this cycle. He is the only safety to get a four-year contract and the average annual value of $16.8 million is just under double what C.J. Gardner-Johnson is earning at $9 million a year.
It all just goes to show how much stock the Packers are putting in McKinney being able to solve their issues at safety. Not only did they spend in free agency, but they paid at the top of the market for a non-premium position player.
McKinney's track record points to being able to live up to the expectations too. He was the fourth-highest graded safety in the league by PFF last season, gave up a passer rating of just 69.8 when targeted and collected a career-high 116 total tackles.
His ball production was good too with three interceptions and 11 pass deflections.
it's the kind of season that should have made McKinney a more popular name when discussing the top safeties in the league, but the Giants were 6-11 and gave up 407 points as a defense.
This year, McKinney should have a huge role in new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley's defense. If the Packers woudln't have given him all of that money and the longer contract if he wasn't a major part of the plan moving forward.
As he rounds into his prime he's in position to put up an elite season and finally get some Pro Bowl recognition.
Josh Jacobs Will Not Surpass Aaron Jones' Production
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The Packers did some shuffling around at the running back position. They started the offseason by making a relatively shocking move by signing Josh Jacobs, briefly forming an interesting duo with Aaron Jones.
They later released the veteran back, getting approximately three years younger at the position. There's something to be said for that. Running backs can hit an age cliff as they get closer to age 30.
But it shouldn't be assumed that Jacobs is going to be an upgrade on the field.
Over the last five years, Jones has averaged `1,324 total yards and 10 touchdowns for the Packers. He has worked as the team's primary threat out of the backfield while also splitting the carries in some form with Jamaal Williams and then AJ Dillon.
Jacobs was dominant in the 2022 season, racking up 2,053 total yards and 12 touchdowns while earning All-Pro honors.
The more realistic expectation is for Jacobs to hit something close to Jones' five-year average statline. There's too much talent in the backfield and in the passing game for Jacobs to get back to his biggest career numbers.
The Packers brought back Dillon on a one-year contract, but they also drafted MarShawn Lloyd. The rookie is already drawing attention at OTAs and mandatory minicamp. He is only going to get better and could eat into Jacobs' workload.
Moving on from Jones was a prudent and necessary move, it just shouldn't be considered an upgrade.
Greg Joseph Will Not Win the Kicker Job
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Kickers go unnoticed until they win or lose a game. NFL kicker offseason movement is an even more overlooked element of the league.
There were plenty in Green Bay that were noticing when Anders Carlson missed a 41-yard field goal attempt in the fourth quarter of an eventually 24-21 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Making the kick would have made it 24-17.
The Niners answered the missed kick with a 12-play, 69-yard touchdown drive that put them up 24-21 with just over a minute to play.
That wasn't the only time that Carlson missed a kick, though. The rookie was just four-of-eight from 40-49 yards and three-of-five from 50 or more. He also missed five extra points on the season.
Carlson could very well be the starter again this season, but he's going to have to earn it. Veteran Greg Joseph was signed to compete for the job and they signed Jack Podlesny who was an undrafted free agent in 2023.
On one hand, Joseph has a lot of experience. He's made 100 field goals and 146 extra points in his five year career with appearances with the Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans and Minnesotav Vikings.
The problem is that he wasn't that much than Carlson last season. He went three-of-six from 40-49 yards and four-of-seven from beyond 50 yards. He also missed two extra points.
The 29-year-old has the edge in experience but Carlson has also had his struggles in Green Bay as special teams coach Rich Bisaccia highlighted for reporters recently.
"In our conversation with him, he hasn't played well here, the two years I've been here. We blocked one, he missed one, so him playing in these conditions is a little bit different for him, as well. He's got a tremendous leg. He's got a great mindset, so it's been a good competition to this point."
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