The 10 Most Intriguing NBA Free Agents This Offseason
NBA free agency seems designed to keep everyone guessing.
From one year to the next, almost nothing stays the same. The teams with cap space to spend are always different, and, of course, the actual free agents themselves undergo an annual refresh—with the rare exception of high-end players reentering the market after inking one-year deals.
The league itself undergoes shifts in its power structure, shuffling things up, turning rebuilders into contenders and vice versa.
All these ever-changing variables introduce unpredictability and set us up for surprises every summer.
That said, a few free agents come with extra dashes of excitement and uncertainty. We're focusing on those figures here as a way to frame the upcoming offseason.
LeBron James (Player Option)
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LeBron James might not seem like a particularly intriguing (potential) free agent because, as ESPN's Brian Windhorst said on Get Up: "I think the Lakers are going to give LeBron whatever contract he wants."
That may be true, but there are several hurdles and uncertainties between now and the moment James signs his next deal. For example, it's possible he won't enter free agency by declining his player option at all.
Per Shams Charania of The Athletic, "the opt-in and opt-out routes are both on the table."
Opting out of next year's $51.4 million would allow James to sign a three-year deal worth up to $162 million, and he could lobby for a no-trade clause on any new contract. Also a possibility: a two-year deal worth $104 million that includes a player option. Don't forget the potential for him to pick up his option and extend for two more years and up to $113 million.
It's difficult to imagine the 39-year-old opting out and signing elsewhere, even if the Philadelphia 76ers have ample cap space, an MVP running mate in Joel Embiid and the boundless ambition of team president Daryl Morey. Let's get prepared for at least one day of the news cycle to fixate on Morey's pursuit of the league's all-time leading scorer.
We also can't forget the variable of Bronny James and where he's drafted. Perhaps LeBron would more seriously entertain leaving the Lakers in free agency if his son did wind up on the right team.
If you're not convinced James belongs here because a Lakers return is a foregone conclusion, just ask yourself one quick question: Can we really have a discussion about intriguing free agents without including the only one who regularly posts hourglass emojis to his socials and has made a career out of applying leverage to his team?
It turns out we can't.
Paul George (Player Option)
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The LA Clippers signed Kawhi Leonard to a three-year, $149.7 million extension in January, a move that signaled Paul George's own re-up was imminent.
Yet here we are mere weeks from free agency, and George hasn't put pen to paper. That could be because he believes he's worth the full four-year, $221 million extension for which he's eligible. Those terms also applied to Leonard, who signed for less.
Does George really view himself as more valuable than Leonard? Would the Clippers actually risk losing the 34-year-old for nothing with a new arena to open next season?
The Philadelphia 76ers are probably licking their chops. They have a superstar-sized hole on their roster and the cap space to pay George as much as $212 million over four years.
Even if no one else is willing to outspend the Clips on a contract offer for the nine-time All-Star in free agency, plenty of teams could complicate this situation by emerging as trade destinations. He would have significant leverage over L.A. and could steer himself to a desirable landing spot, considering he can threaten to opt out and leave.
It'd be one thing if the Clips could sell themselves as the highest bidder and the place where George has the best chance to win. So far, they appear to be neither of those things. Hence the intrigue.
Klay Thompson
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Sentiment says Klay Thompson has to finish his career with Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Steve Kerr and the Golden State Warriors. Financial realities, pride, the Orlando Magic's need for shooting and the non-negotiable fact that all things must come to an end beg to differ.
That's the basic setup for what could be one of the more emotionally fraught free-agent situations we've seen in several years.
Thompson suffered major slippage last season and didn't perform like a no-questions-asked starter for the first time in a decade. In fact, he briefly lost his first-unit gig to rookie Brandin Podziemski. That suggests the $48 million extension Golden State offered in October, which Thompson declined, will not be on the table again.
If the four-time champ is willing to accept something like $40 million over two years, which would line up the conclusion of his contract with Curry's, the Warriors would probably have to grit their teeth and offer it. If that's a bit of an overpay, Golden State can justify it by noting Thompson will have a statue in front of Chase Center someday.
It's also entirely possible the 34-year-old will be eager to a) get the most money he can and b) prove he's not cooked by lighting it up for another team. Yes, his 2023-24 production looks bad compared to what he'd done in the past. But we're still talking about a "down year" marked by 17.9 points on 38.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc.
If a free-agent suitor comes calling with a two-year deal worth $50 million or $60 million, Thompson and Golden State could absolutely part ways.
James Harden
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So...is anybody going to offer more than one guaranteed year for James Harden's services?
The 15-year vet explained to Sam Amick of The Athletic that part of the reason he opted in to the final year of his deal and then forced a trade away from the Philadelphia 76ers "was about trying to get to a situation where I could get paid and obviously have a chance to win at the highest level."
That seems to suggest Harden, 34, believed the LA Clippers would lock him down for multiple years at the max, but it's not as if they'd be the first team to land him and then balk at a long-term commitment.
Harden's history of trade requests and willingness to get uncomfortable make him a difficult player to trust. Knowing that, and considering the Clippers retained Kawhi Leonard for less than his max while failing (so far) to agree to anything with Paul George, there's no chance Harden is in line for a multi-year windfall from L.A.
As for other teams who could back up the Brinks truck for Harden? Let's just say the Sixers probably aren't on the list, and even the Detroit Pistons should know better than to invest in a player laughably outside their timeline.
The result of his free agency isn't that tough to forecast. He's probably going to get a one-plus-one deal from the Clippers with a second-year option, perhaps nudging up against $70 million in total value.
Everything that happens before that—which could include Harden lashing out at the Clippers, threatening to go back to the Houston Rockets or any other move in his deep bag of disgruntled-player tricks—is where the real excitement will be.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Player Option)
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The Denver Nuggets can sap the drama from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's free agency by offering him a new contract that either matches or beats the market.
But will they?
Despite falling to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the conference semifinals, the Nuggets should be viewed as a short-list contender going into next season. They're too good to be in cost-cutting mode and should be willing to outbid any other suitors for KCP.
That said, Denver would find itself above the second apron next season if he merely opted in for $15.4 million. Going above that number, which would be a must if the Nuggets actually want to keep their starting shooting guard, will intensify the tax penalties.
Caldwell-Pope is among the league's best supporting pieces. He's won rings with two franchises, defends either backcourt spot at a high level and tends to hang around the 40.0 percent mark from long range. That skill set and experience are in demand in 29 locales outside of Denver. Even at 31 and showing slight signs of decline, it wouldn't be a shocker if another team offered something close to $100 million over four years.
Worth noting: The Nuggets seem to have been preparing for this eventuality. Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett and Hunter Tyson are all young, set to earn under $3 million next year and possibly capable of absorbing the minutes vacated by KCP.
Also worth noting: Denver would be indisputably worse without Caldwell-Pope, one of the core members of its title-winning team.
KCP is going to decline his option. Beyond that, very little about his future seems certain.
D'Angelo Russell (Player Option)
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D'Angelo Russell didn't exactly cover himself in glory during the 2024 postseason, making it two straight playoffs in which he saw his role reduced and impact diminished during the games that matter most.
That's what makes his stated intention to apply leverage against the Los Angeles Lakers this offseason so fascinating. Because, well...what leverage?
Russell has an $18.7 million player option he can decline to enter free agency, but it's difficult to spot the cap-space team that desperately needs him at a price point above that number.
Detroit can clear up to $64 million but is already flush with young guards it needs to develop, and the Magic should aim a little higher in their search for offensive help. Neither the San Antonio Spurs nor the Utah Jazz seem likely to pay top dollar for a veteran guard whose game has never been about making young teammates better.
Russell could broaden his options by cooperating with the Lakers in a sign-and-trade deal after opting out, but any team that acquired him would have the hard cap to contend with.
When the Lakers signed the 28-year-old last summer to a one-plus-one deal in which he agreed to waive his implied no-trade clause, it appeared clear they planned to use him as matching salary in a trade. He performed well enough during the year–18.0 points and 6.3 assists while shooting 41.5 percent from deep—to stay put through the deadline, but L.A. could again view him as more of a trade chip than a key piece of the roster.
Will Russell risk entering a potentially cool free-agent market by declining his option? Will he work out a new deal with the Lakers that sets him up to be traded during the season? Or will he pick up the option, return to L.A. and embrace all the uncertainty that comes with what would be an expiring 2024-25 contract?
Isaiah Hartenstein
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Free agency tends to be most complicated for centers because trends at the position change so quickly. In the last decade alone, teams put high values on plodding paint-protectors like Roy Hibbert, only to pivot quickly to switchable, undersized "Draymond Green Lite" types. Tastes today fall somewhere between those two extremes.
Isaiah Hartenstein's unrestricted free agency will be predictable in only one sense: We know the New York Knicks, using Early Bird rights, can offer him a maximum of four years and $72.5 million.
It's possible another team with cap space could beat those terms. The Oklahoma City Thunder, for example, could justify spending close to $20 million per season on a big man who could defend the pick-and-roll, hold up physically against conventional bigs, facilitate from the elbows and, most importantly, address their crippling rebounding deficiency.
Remember, too, that the Knicks aren't just dealing with Hartenstein's free agency in a vacuum. OG Anunoby is a lock to decline his player option and could technically sign a five-year, $245 million contract to return to New York. His four-year max would top out around $190 million. Even if the Knicks don't go quite that high, they'll be cozied up to the second apron with market-rate contracts for Hartenstein and Anunoby, particularly if they also guarantee Bojan Bogdanović's $19 million for next year.
Odds are the Knicks will keep Hartenstein. He proved too valuable on both ends to let go, and Mitchell Robinson's continued injury issues render the center rotation thinner than it seems. But smart teams who watched him play such a key role for a New York squad that came within a game of the Conference Finals will be tempted to make bigger offers than the Knicks are allowed to match.
Tobias Harris
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To a greater extent than almost anyone else in the league, Tobias Harris' reputation suffered because of his contract.
Across parts of six seasons with the Philadelphia 76ers, the combo forward averaged 17.6 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.1 assists on a 48.8/36.9/83.5 shooting split while punching the clock as one of the more durable players in the league during that span.
And yet, because Harris spent that time playing on a five-year, $180 million contract, he was almost always viewed as something of a disappointment. Basically, public opinion punished him for a job well done by his agent.
An unrestricted free agent at age 31, he can now look forward to something of a career reset. The market will dictate what he's worth, and it seems like a given that his approval rating will rise as he sustains his starter-level production for significantly less than the $39.3 million he earned last season.
The Sixers won't prioritize retaining Harris over going big-game hunting with their cap space, and it feels like a fresh start is in order anyway. The Thunder, Pistons, Hornets, Raptors, Spurs and even the Magic could justify tossing $15-20 million per season at Harris, and the options broaden substantially if we include non cap-space teams that could offer the full mid-level exception.
With bigger names on the market and the "overpaid" label of the past dogging him, Harris feels like a forgotten man in 2024 free agency. Don't be surprised if, when we reassess the offseason in a few months, the team that signs him rates as one of the big winners.
Malik Monk
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Malik Monk's value has never been higher, and he's positioned to cash in as one of the most desirable backcourt scoring threats in a thin market.
We can safely set his floor at four years and $78 million, which is the most the Sacramento Kings can offer using Early Bird rights.
The Magic should be among the first in line for Monk, and the Detroit Pistons might consider spending on a guard who'd fit into configurations with Jaden Ivey or Cade Cunningham. The Toronto Raptors may need to replace free agent Gary Trent Jr. at shooting guard, and the San Antonio Spurs need players who can shoot, dribble and pass more than anyone.
Each of those teams has to consider the risk of spending big on Monk after his career year, but it'd be surprising if at least one outside suitor didn't spike his price above Sacramento's range.
The Kentucky product shouldn't have to convince anyone that he's capable of ditching the Sixth Man label, and his ability to perform at the highest level against top opposing lineups is a huge reason he's going to get paid like a starter. His 98 clutch points ranked in the top 15 leaguewide and were by far the highest total of among non-starters.
Sacramento turned to Monk as a high-volume shot-creator in big moments, and his league-leading assist rate on drives (minimum 6.0 drives per game) marks him as someone spacing-starved teams could trust to loosen up defenses.
The Kings need his offense, but plenty of other teams will want it, too. Don't be surprised if the 26-year-old, a career backup to this point, winds up getting close to a nine-figure deal.
Simone Fontecchio
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We close with a deep cut, as Simone Fontecchio spent last season playing for the Utah Jazz and Detroit Pistons, the NBA's equivalent of the witness protection program.
Though he's probably unfamiliar to non-diehards and those outside Salt Lake City or Detroit, the 28-year-old forward's offseason is bound to be interesting.
Fontecchio is, arguably, the best player nobody seems to know about.
After 50 efficient games with the Jazz, he got a chance to add volume down the stretch with Detroit. Averages of 15.4 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.8 assists don't leap off the page. But a 42.6 percent hit rate from deep with the Pistons, combined with eye-opening defensive skills, suggests the Italian could slot into a major role on a good team.
Restricted free agency will allow the Pistons to match any offer sheets coming Fontecchio's way, but it's unclear what direction the team is heading. If only to keep him around as a trade chip, Detroit should strongly consider matching any non-ridiculous offer. It's not like combo forwards who can shoot and defend have to worry about fickle market forces changing their value. Those types of players are always in high demand.
Though his track record is relatively short (two NBA seasons), and though his age means significant improvement is unlikely, Fontecchio profiles as a quality starter hiding in plain sight. He should expect to get at least the full mid-level exception over three or four years, with the possibility of a shorter contract at a higher annual value as a fallback option.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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