10 Things That Will Decide 2024 NBA Championship
The NBA playoffs are heating up, with every team in the second round winning at least one game thus far.
A number of factors will ultimately decide who wins the 2024 title. Injury concerns are surrounding Jamal Murray, Donovan Mitchell and the entire New York Knicks. Role players on a team like the Dallas Mavericks are crucial. The way teams defend Nikola Jokić and the emergence of Anthony Edwards as a superstar will swing the title race as well.
These are 10 things that will decide the championship in one way or another.
The Dallas Mavericks' Supporting Cast
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The Dallas Mavericks are holding Luka Dončić together with duct tape at this point. Kyrie Irving, while brilliant at times, has also disappeared for entire halves of games.
The Mavs' success will ultimately be led by their two stars, although the supporting cast is needed now more than ever with Dončić so banged up.
The 25-year-old's scoring has dropped from 33.9 points per game during the regular season to 27.7 percent during the playoffs, with his three-ball largely a mess at 26.4 percent accuracy. In the first four games against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Dončić is putting up just 22.0 points per game and has yet to crack 30.
Despite that dip in scoring, Dallas got off to a 2-1 series lead thanks to P.J. Washington and company.
Washington, a trade-deadline pickup from the Charlotte Hornets, averaged 21.8 points, 8.8 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game while shooting 51.4 percent from three in his first four games of the series. His offensive burst has been a huge pickup for a Dallas team hungry to return to the West finals.
Daniel Gafford has been solid against a thin Thunder frontcourt (11.8 points, 7.8 rebounds), and Josh Green (42.1 percent from three in the series) has made an impact as well.
The supporting cast will need to continue to step up if Dončić continues to battle various injuries.
The Health of Jamal Murray's Calf
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Jamal Murray, despite pulling off some heroic game-winners and half-court buzzer beaters this postseason, has been far from 100 percent.
A nagging calf strain has tagged him as questionable and even as a game-time decision on injury reports, despite the 27-year-old suiting up in all nine of the Denver Nuggets' playoff games thus far.
If Murray has to miss time for the injury or he doesn't look like himself, this puts a significant dent in the Nuggets chances of a repeat.
He shot just 37.5 percent overall and 28.6 percent from three over his first seven playoff games, unable to get his usual lift on his jump shots. A 3-of-18 shooting performance for eight total points against a strong Minnesota Timberwolves defense in a Game 2 loss was especially concerning.
The good news for Nuggets fans is that the three days off between Games 2 and 3 seemed to do wonders for Murray's calf.
In back-to-back wins for Denver in Minnesota to even the series, he looked like his 2023 playoff self with 21.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 2.5 steals on 50.0 percent shooting overall and 41.7 percent from three.
Here's hoping this upward trend continues, as Murray is one of the most important players left in these playoffs.
The Boston Celtics' Aggressiveness
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There's no reason why the Boston Celtics shouldn't win the 2024 title.
They finished with a league-high 64 wins, plus-11.7 net rating and the best offense in NBA history (123.2 rating).
So why don't we completely trust them?
Whether it's blowing a 2-1 lead in the 2022 NBA Finals, losing to an undermanned Miami Heat team in the Eastern Conference Finals last season or even failing to win the In-Season Tournament, something just seems off with Boston at times.
We've already witnessed the Celtics losing home games this postseason to a Heat team minus Jimmy Butler and a Cleveland Cavaliers squad without Jarrett Allen. Kristaps Porziņģis has missed time this postseason with a calf strain, but Boston has still been far deeper and more talented than its opponents to this point.
If the Celtics make it past the Cavs and into the East Finals, they'll either be facing a young Indiana Pacers group or an injury-riddled New York Knicks squad. We'd like to say Boston could end either of these series rather quickly, but its tendency to play with its food before eating could turn up again.
The Celtics can't take their foot off the gas, as this is a championship team when focused.
Pascal Siakam Consistently Playing Like a No. 2 Option
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In their initial two games of the first-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks, the Indiana Pacers got exactly what they needed from Pascal Siakam after acquiring him in a blockbuster trade this season.
The 30-year-old torched Milwaukee for 36 and 37 points in back-to-back games, including 24 total rebounds in the two contests.
Since then, though, Siakam has looked like a different player.
The two-time All-Star is averaging just 16.8 points and 6.9 rebounds over his last eight games and has only hit the 20-point mark once. His three-ball has also vanished (19.0 percent over this stretch).
The Pacers could still win the series against a banged-up New York Knicks team with Siakam playing below his ability, but Indiana only stands a chance against the Boston Celtics if he looks like a max player.
Indiana has a real opportunity to make it to the East Finals, even with Tyrese Haliburton not at 100 percent. Siakam, who could sign a max five-year, $250 million deal this offseason with the Pacers, needs to prove he's worth this money now.
Chet Holmgren's Three-Point Shooting
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Few teams left in the NBA postseason have the ability to play five-out in the playoffs with shooters at every position.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of those...that is if Chet Holmgren is on that given night.
The 22-year-old made 37.0 percent of his threes this season, yet his game-to-game accuracy had a noticeable tie into OKC's team success. In 57 wins, He connected on 40.9 percent of his threes. In 25 losses, this number plummeted all the way to 28.9 percent.
The Dallas Mavericks employ two more traditional centers in Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II. Holmgren being able to force them out of the paint to guard his three-point shot is going to allow Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to drive more often, the most lethal part of his game.
Holmgren went 2-of-5 (40.0 percent) in a Game 1 win over the Mavs, yet he finished just 1-of-8 (12.5 percent) during losses in Games 2 and 3. He shot only 1-of-2 from deep in OKC's Game 4 win on Monday.
If the Thunder can advance, both the Denver Nuggets (Nikola Jokić) and Minnesota Timberwolves (Rudy Gobert) utilize centers who are most comfortable defending in the paint and not on the perimeter.
OKC will need Holmgren to be a threat from deep to keep advancing.
The New York Knicks' Durability
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The New York Knicks have given us two competitive series against the Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers, but the team's growing list of injuries may be its toughest opponent yet.
The Knicks already knew they'd be without Julius Randle due to shoulder surgery. Getting OG Anunoby and Bojan Bogdanović at the trade deadline was supposed to help soften this blow, although both are now sidelined as well.
Bogdanović's season is over with wrist and foot surgeries, while Anunoby's hamstring injury has him out for Game 5 (and possibly longer) against the Pacers. Mitchell Robinson is out for six-to-eight weeks with an ankle injury.
New York was already running on fumes before the Anunoby news.
Josh Hart is averaging 44.1 minutes a game in the postseason, with Jalen Brunson (40.8) and Donte DiVincenzo (35.5) not far behind.
Anunoby's presence has been crucial for the Knicks' success. New York is 26-5 in the regular season and playoffs since trading for the 26-year-old star, yet are just 13-16 overall when he misses a game due to injury.
Hart and Brunson both looked gassed in a Game 4 loss. If their minutes don't come down and Anunoby can't return, the Knicks have no chance at a title this year.
Donovan Mitchell Playing Spoiler
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The Cleveland Cavaliers may not make it past the Boston Celtics, although having a star like Donovan Mitchell means we can't rule them out just yet.
Before missing Game 4 with a calf injury, the five-time All-Star was one of the hottest players this postseason and the primary reason the Cavs knocked off the Orlando Magic in Round 1 and beat the Celtics in Boston in Game 2.
Mitchell has averaged 35.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.0 steals on 50.0/40.7/80.9 percent shooting splits over his last six games, including a 50-piece against the Magic in Game 6 of their first-round series. He was a plus-38 in a 24-point win over the Celtics in Game 2, with both Jrue Holiday and Derrick White unable to slow him down.
Only six players in NBA history have a higher playoff scoring average than Mitchell's 28.1 points per game, a list that includes Michael Jordan, Luka Dončić, Allen Iverson, Kevin Durant, Jerry West and LeBron James.
Mitchell will continue to make life miserable for opposing defenses, even if it's in a spoiler role.
A Potential Jayson Tatum Takeover
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The Boston Celtics don't always need a big game out of Jayson Tatum to secure a win given the amount of talent they possess. To win a championship, though, they'll need consistent greatness out of their best player.
It seems like the stage has been set for the 26-year-old to win a Finals MVP for years, ever since we saw him as a rookie in 2018 dunking on LeBron James in the Eastern Conference Finals while helping Boston push the Cleveland Cavaliers to seven games.
There's been no better time for Tatum to take the throne until now.
It took the five-time All-Star eight games to secure his first 30-point performance of the playoffs despite the Celtics dropping a pair of contests to this point. His three-point shooting will remain an important part of his offense, yet he's nearly unstoppable driving and finishing around defenders with his 6'8", 210-pound frame. He is shooting 74.1 percent from within three feet this season, yet he settled for more mid-range jumpers than in 2022-23.
We're waiting for the Tatum takeover to finally happen. If it does, the Celtics will be world champs.
The Chess Match of Defending Nikola Jokić
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Slowing down Nikola Jokić, especially in the playoffs, has been an unsolved mystery to this point.
Teams have tried putting their best post defender on him (Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert) or used smaller options with their bigs waiting as a second line of defense. The Minnesota Timberwolves are the latest team to try multiple looks on the Serb, although other teams will face the same issue in the Conference Finals and Finals if Denver advances.
The Wolves have recently tried putting Gobert on Aaron Gordon to keep him in the dunker's spot and unable to help if Jokić gets close to the basket with Karl-Anthony Towns as the primary defender.
Jokić is shooting 66.7 percent from inside the arc with Towns contesting, compared to 56.3 percent against Naz Reid and 47.6 percent vs. Gobert per NBA.com's tracking data.
Gobert has been the most successful option to this point, although Minnesota is still experimenting with its coverages.
The Dunker Spot's Steve Jones highlighted other Jokić coverages, including Anthony Edwards as a primary defender, the Wolves doubling and switching the pick and roll.
Jokić has a true shooting mark of 68.0 percent in wins and 59.0 percent in losses this season. Finding the best way to make him an inefficient scorer is key for the Wolves and any other future opponents.
Anthony Edwards Making the Superstar Leap
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One of the best parts of the 2024 postseason has been the play of Anthony Edwards, who is making a leap right before our eyes.
Asking someone his age to lead a team to a title would normally seem impossible, although the 22-year-old has his Timberwolves in a 2-2 tie with the defending champion Denver Nuggets while putting up historically great numbers.
Only three players in the history of the NBA have previously exceeded 32.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists in a playoff run at age 22 or younger, a list that includes Michael Jordan, Tracy McGrady, Luka Dončić and now Edwards.
We'll avoid direct Jordan comparisons for now, although Edwards has made the leap past Devin Booker and Donovan Mitchell as the best shooting guard in the game today.
If Edwards did take the Wolves all the way and won Finals MVP, he would tie Kawhi Leonard and Tim Duncan for the second youngest to do so in NBA history. Only Magic Johnson (20) would be younger.
Edwards is already a star, an All-Star and should be named to his first All-NBA team this season.
If he can make the jump to superstar in these playoffs, Minnesota could win its first title.
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