8 Early Predictions for the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline
It's never too early to start thinking about the MLB trade deadline, but that's especially true this season. One blockbuster deal has already been completed, and several teams look deader than disco through 40-ish games.
Are the woebegone Miami Marlins going to make any other noteworthy trades between now and the July 30 trade deadline?
What about the San Diego Padres, who swung big to get Luis Arráez from the Miami Marlins but are barely hanging onto what would be the NL's No. 6 seed if the playoffs started today? Will they be one of the more active trade partners this summer?
Who are the marquee names destined to repeatedly pop up as top trade candidates, a la Juan Soto in 2022 and Shohei Ohtani last summer?
We'll touch on each of those topics and more in this still-early-but-not-too-early glance into the trade deadline crystal ball.
Predictions are presented in no particular order.
Surplus of Available First Basemen Makes Things...Interesting
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Miami Marlins first baseman Josh Bell will be a free agent this winter and is probably being shopped to any interested parties since the Marlins already traded away Luis Arráez.
St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is also destined for free agency, and the Cards would likely be a seller if the trade deadline were today. Whether anyone will even want the 2022 NL MVP remains to be seen, as he is having a disastrous season and would be owed around $9 million in prorated funds if he gets dealt at the deadline. He should be available, though.
New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is yet another impending free agent, and he might be the crown jewel of the trade block if he ends up landing on it. The Mets are a game back for a wild-card spot as things currently stand, but they might end up embracing a trade deadline fire sale for a second consecutive summer.
Arizona is in a similar spot in the NL standings with an impending free-agent first baseman of its own. The 33-year-old Christian Walker presumably isn't part of the Diamondbacks' long-term plans and should be made available if they're still a few games below .500 in 10 weeks' time.
Neither the Chicago Cubs nor the Milwaukee Brewers would be sellers today, but if either one fades considerably, the former has Cody Bellinger on a contract with a player option for next season and the latter has Rhys Hoskins on a similar deal.
Here's the thing, though: Who actually needs a first baseman?
The Houston Astros have a gaping hole at first, but they might not be buyers for a change. The Washington Nationals could use an upgrade at first if they're still treading water in the wild-card picture by late July, but they're still considered highly unlikely to make the playoffs.
The Seattle Mariners might be the only team looking to add a first baseman.
Surely someone would make room for Alonso if he's available, but supply of first basemen is all but certain to exceed the demand for them.
Reigning Champs Do Their Deadline 'Buying' Via the IL
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Presently sitting a half-game back in the AL West, the Texas Rangers are in position to be buyers at the trade deadline, just as they were last year. They acquired Jordan Montgomery, Max Scherzer, Aroldis Chapman and Chris Stratton ahead of last season's deadline to get into better shape for their World Series run.
However, do they need to—or could they even afford to—do anything other than get healthy?
Both Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle should be back from their Tommy John surgeries somewhere in the vicinity of July 30.
While the Rangers were initially hoping to get Max Scherzer back on the mound before the All-Star break, his rehab has been delayed by thumb/nerve issues. There has been no updated ETA provided to the public, but he might also be making his return to big league action somewhere around the trade deadline.
Third baseman Josh Jung is likely looking at a mid-June return from the broken wrist he suffered four games into the season. That's well ahead of the trade deadline, but it's yet another "addition by rehabilitation" situation for the reigning champs.
There may well be setbacks or more injuries suffered along the way to change team needs for the Rangers, but they would be in excellent shape for a repeat title just by getting guys back from the IL.
Maybe they make a move for a marquee reliever who they feel comfortable rolling with alongside Kirby Yates and David Robertson, but it seems likely that Texas will have a much quieter deadline than it did last summer.
Talk of 'Blake Snell Sweepstakes 2.0' Dominates July
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Save for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the biggest name available in free agency this past offseason was Blake Snell. And there he sat for well over four months, patiently waiting for the megadeal that never came.
Snell (and Scott Boras) reportedly turned down a six-year, $150 million ($25 million AAV) offer from the Yankees in late January, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. They countered with a nine-year, $270 million ($30 million AAV) deal that the Yanks had no interest in matching.
In the end, he signed a two-year, $62 million contract with San Francisco on March 19. The second year pays $15 million more than the first, but it's a player option which he may well decline to once again pursue a nine-figure, long-term deal.
Meanwhile, things aren't going swell for the San Francisco Giants, in part because Snell made only three disappointing starts before landing on the IL with an adductor strain. Snell should be back in a week or two, but it might not be enough to save the Giants from embracing a fire sale.
If they do, Michael Conforto, Alex Cobb, Austin Slater and Nick Ahmed are set to become unrestricted free agents after this season, while Snell, Matt Chapman, Robbie Ray and Wilmer Flores all have player options for 2025. That octet could collectively fetch quite the haul of prospects.
The main draw would be Snell, so hopefully you didn't get too sick of those daily "Latest Rumors on Snell" updates from this past offseason. There might be a bunch more in July.
Snell's $38.5 million player option for next season may make it tough for the Giants and a prospective trade partner to find common ground. It's not a impossible hurdle, as we saw the New York Mets deal Max Scherzer and his $43.3 million player option last summer. However, a big part of that trade crossing the finish line was getting Scherzer to exercise his option in advance. Don't bank on Snell agreeing to do that.
The Chicago White Sox Will Be Busy, But Won't Trade Away Luis Robert Jr.
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The Chicago White Sox are nearly 20 games below .500 and have seven impending free agents in Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong, Mike Clevinger, Michael Soroka, Dominic Leone, Brad Keller and Tim Hill. They are as good as gone if anyone wants them. (Soroka and Leone are maybes, but the other five are probably worth trading for, as things currently stand.)
They also have a few 2025 club options on the ledger in Martín Maldonado, Max Stassi, Yoán Moncada and Eloy Jiménez. Of that bunch, maybe Jiménez gets dealt, but the other three figure to be of minimal interest before having their options declined this offseason.
The big one is Luis Robert Jr., who reasonably could be part of yet another White Sox fire sale.
Robert has been out for more than a month with a hip flexor strain, but he should be back soon. He hit 38 home runs in 2023, placing 12th in the AL MVP vote. He has a career OPS of .825, as does Manny Machado. And for as good as he has been when healthy, what's left on his contract—$12.5 million this season, $15 million in 2025 and $20 million club options for 2026 and 2027—is a certified bargain.
If Chicago put him on the trade block, it would receive plenty of phone calls. Are the White Sox willing to admit long-term defeat, though? To give away a star with 3.5 years of team control remaining, especially when they already have one of the best farm systems and reasonably could be respectable again by 2026?
This isn't a "Nationals trading away Juan Soto with 2.5 years left before free agency" situation, where the team both needed to restock its farm system and had an outrageous amount of long-term money tied up in bloated/deferred contracts. The White Sox are a trainwreck right now, but they're set up to potentially turn things around in a year or two like the Baltimore Orioles did two years ago.
The White Sox should be looking to build around Robert as opposed to scrapping him for parts. We shall see if they reach the same conclusion, though.
Toronto Blue Jays Are This Year's Stubborn Team That Does a Whole Lot of Nothing
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There's usually at least one team with a head-scratching approach to the trade deadline.
Last year, the big one was the New York Yankees, who nearly neglected to do anything. They were only three games back in the wild-card standings, but basically all they added was a middle reliever (Keynan Middleton) at the last minute. It was supremely weird for a team that used to spare no expense in pursuit of titles.
The year before that, it was the Boston Red Sox's approach that made the least sense. They entered August one game below .500 and neither sold off their best trade chips nor acquired anywhere near enough to help them finish strong. It's like they changed their minds every morning and never really became a buyer or a seller. (In hindsight, though, getting Wilyer Abreu for a few months of Christian Vázquez was awesome.)
Could it be a third straight year where an AL East team leaves everyone puzzled?
The Toronto Blue Jays are in last place in the division and can't hit anything lately. But if they were to sell this summer, they sure have a lot to offer.
Of the 15 Blue Jays making at least $5 million this season, five (Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Danny Jansen, Yusei Kikuchi and Yimi Garcia) will be unrestricted free agents this winter, while six others (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Chris Bassitt, Jordan Romano and Chad Green) are slated for free agency after 2025.
It could be quite the fire sale. They won't do it, though.
Maybe the Blue Jays will move Kikuchi if he's still pitching at a high level while they're still floundering in last place, but they probably won't give up anyone who could fetch them a legitimately nice package of prospects. Instead, they'll likely choose to hope for the best next season with Guerrero, Bichette, Bassitt, Romano, Kevin Gausman, George Springer, etc.
Miami Marlins Barely Do Anything Else
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The Miami Marlins have the worst record in the majors and have already waved the white flag on the 2024 campaign, shipping Luis Arráez to San Diego for a quartet of prospects on May 4. If they had much of anything to offer, they would be the prime candidate for a full-blown fire sale.
But do they?
There are only three notable impending free agents on the roster in Josh Bell, Tim Anderson and Tanner Scott. Bell has five home runs, but is barely batting .200. Anderson is also at the Mendoza Line, but without any dingers. And though Scott has a solid ERA (2.25), he has walked 16 batters in 16 innings pitched and is due to implode any day now. Maybe the Marlins can get something for Bell and Scott, but even packaging the two together wouldn't fetch much of a return.
The Marlins' list of players slated for free agency after 2025 is considerably less inspired. It consists of backup catcher Christian Bethancourt, relievers JT Chargois and Burch Smith and OF/DH Avisaíl García, who has a $12 million club option for 2026 with an approximately zero percent chance of being exercised. Drumming up interest in any of those players will be a challenge.
To move the needle, the Marlins would need to offer up Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jesús Luzardo or someone else who is at least 2.5 seasons away from free agency, which isn't likely to happen.
If the Marlins were willing to move Luzardo, the time to do it was this past offseason, when many contenders were reluctant to spend on free agents but were still aggressively pursuing trades for controllable starting pitchers. Any package they could get for him today would likely pale in comparison to what they could have gotten a few months ago.
Thus, moving Arráez may have been the only noteworthy splash that the Fish make this year.
San Diego Padres Are the Most Aggressive Buyers
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It would be just about impossible for the San Diego Padres to exceed what they pulled off at the 2022 trade deadline, when they got 2.5 years of Juan Soto, 1.5 years of Josh Hader and the expiring deals of both Josh Bell and Brandon Drury. We've seen some mighty impressive mid-summer prospect hauls over the years, but that was an all-timer of a multi-pronged approach to upgrading an MLB roster at the deadline.
All the same, it is shaping up to be another aggressive trade deadline for A.J. Preller and Co.
For the record, yes, the already completed acquisition of Luis Arráez from Miami should be counted toward grading San Diego's trade-season aggressiveness. No one will mention it much* in the immediate aftermath of the trade deadline chaos—similar to last year with Aroldis Chapman going to Texas at the end of June and not really being viewed as a deadline deal—but it was a big part of their team-building journey.
It won't be the last one, though.
Assuming they're still in the mix for a playoff spot, they're likely going to acquire another starting pitcher. The 1-2-3 punch of Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove is hard to argue with (if Musgrove gets healthy and turns things around), but upgrading Matt Waldron's spot in the rotation is a near-must.
At least one bullpen arm, possibly two will be on the Padres' wish list. The same goes for bats, with this being the team perhaps most likely to make the Mets an offer they can't refuse for Pete Alonso, should Steve Cohen reach a point where he's willing to consider parting with the Polar Bear.
*Unless the Padres fall apart in these next two months and end up turning around and trading Arraez elsewhere.
Alex Bregman Gets Traded to the NL Central
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Alex Bregman has spent his entire career on a contender. Houston didn't quite make the playoffs when he was a rookie in 2016, but the Astros did finish six games above .500 that year and have made it at least as far as the ALCS in every October since.
But at 10 games below .500, Houston just hasn't had it this season and could be a measured seller at the trade deadline. Emphasis on measured, though.
The Astros re-upped with Jose Altuve on a five-year extension in February and only have three impending free agents: Bregman, Kendall Graveman (who is out for the year), Ryan Pressley (who has a mutual $15 million option for 2025) and Justin Verlander (who has a $17.5 million player option). It wouldn't make much sense for them to blow it all up by looking to unload the likes of Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez or Ryan Pressly more than a year before they can walk of their own accord.
Trading Bregman to a contender before trying to re-sign him this offseason, though? That might be in the cards.
There has already been some talk of Bregman making sense as a target for the New York Yankees, which is valid from a roster-needs perspective. However, do you see that phone call happening? Those franchises haven't made a trade in eight years, and Houston would probably rather just keep Bregman on a sinking ship than help out the Yankees.
The Astros might be willing to help out a former rival from the NL Central, though.
The Milwaukee Brewers have been platooning Joey Ortiz and Oliver Dunn at third base and should be interested in Bregman if they remain in the mix for the division crown. And the Chicago Cubs have been primarily playing Christopher Morel at third base, but they would make him the primary DH in half a heartbeat if they could put Bregman at the hot corner instead.
By the way, this does somewhat hinge on Bregman showing signs of life at some point. After earning AL MVP votes in four of the past six years, he is having a disastrous contract year, presently saddled with a .534 OPS. He does have a history of slow starts, though, and has done by far his best work in August (.996 OPS) throughout his career. Houston would be wise to hammer that point home if it ends up shopping the two-time All-Star.
(Bregman homered twice in Monday's win over Oakland, so perhaps those signs of life have arrived.)
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