Kentucky Derby Entries 2024: Race-Day Predictions for Horses, Jockeys in Lineup

With the 150th Kentucky Derby just hours away, the lineup has mostly gone unscathed throughout the week. Last year's Derby saw multiple horses scratched from the lineup and a much different 18-horse field ultimately compete for the roses.

This year, the 20-horse field has just one scratch so far. Encino, who was primed to break from the ninth post, has been scratched which will allow Epic Ride to enter the field as an also-eligible option.

The favorites remain in play to win the first jewel of the Triple Crown. Fierceness and Sierra Leone remain the horses that the odds favor while Japanese import Forever Young has seen a surge since the opening morning line odds when post positions were drawn.

While those horses certainly have a good case to be favored, they also aren't ironclad choices. This year's race has a wide-open field that should provide another entertaining entry in the race's rich history.

Here's a look at the horses, jockeys and post positions as well as a few predictions.

• Location: Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky
• Start Time: 2:30 - 7:30 p.m.
• TV: NBC
• Streaming: Peacock

Kentucky Derby Lineup: Horses, Jockeys and Odds

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John Velazquez aboard Fierceness at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile

1. Dornoch, Luis Saez 17-1

2. Sierra Leone, Tyler Gafflione 5-1

3. Mystik Dan, Brian Hernandez Jr. 20-1

4. Catching Freedom, Flavien Prat 8-1

5. Catalytic, Jose Ortiz 37-1

6. Just Steel, Keith Asmussen 30-1

7. Honor Marie, Ben Curtis 14-1

8. Just A Touch, Florent Geroux 13-1

9. Encino, Scratch

10. T O Password, Kimura Kazushi 56-1

11. Forever Young, Ryusei Sakai 7-1

12. Track Phantom, Joel Rosario 45-1

13. West Saratoga, Jesus Castanon 30-1

14. Endlessly, Umberto Rispoli 47-1

15. Domestic Product, Irad Ortiz Jr. 31-1

16. Grand Mo The First, Emisael Jaramillo 54-1

17. Fierceness, John Velazquez 5-2

18. Stronghold, Antonio Fresu 35-1

19. Resilience, Junior Alvarado 26-1

20. Society Man, Frankie Dettori 59-1

21. Epic Ride, Adam Beschizza 53-1

Lineup, jockeys and odds courtesy of KentuckyDerby.com.

Predictions for Top Horses and Jockeys

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Derby contender Just A Touch

1. Sierra Leone, Tyler Gaffalione

2. Just A Touch, Florent Geroux

3. Fierceness, John Velasquez

4. Catching Freedom, Flavien Prat

5. Resilience, Junior Alvarado

Fierceness and Sierra Leone are the two heavy favorites in the field. But the Derby rarely plays out with the two two entrants getting first and second. There's usually at least one contender in there that breaks up the obvious exacta.

This year, that colt could be Just A Touch. The son of Justify has been lightly raced which is a big reason his odds are in the double digits. Inexperienced runners have traditionally struggled on the grand stage of the Derby, but the Curse of Apollo was broken by Justify in 2018.

Now his progeny could be next in line.

Jockey Florent Geroux, who won the 2021 Derby aboard Mandaloun until he was disqualified, believes in his assignment running a great race on Saturday.

"I'm really excited about his chances," Geroux told media. "He's light on experience but he's a very talented colt. I think he's ready to run a big race."

Just A Touch was unraced as a two-year-old but has improved in each of his three career races including a second-place finish at the Blue Grass Stakes just behind Sierra Leone.

It could be deja vu all over again under the Twin Spires. Sierra Leone is a hard-charging closer who will need to have a clean break from the second post to put himself in a position to make his run late.

Fierceness is a legitimate first choice despite the third-place prediction here. He can't be touched by this field when he's on his game. He jumped out to the lead at the Florida Derby and left the pack behind.

The problem is that it's hard to trust him because he hasn't been consistent. He's never won two races in a row and it will be hard to get the early lead breaking all the way from the outside.

Catching Freedom and Resilience are two longer shots to watch for. Catching Freedom has proven to be good for the distance. He came all the way back from 11th to win the Louisiana Derby, showing the closing speed to do well over 1 3/16 miles.

Resilience also has shown the potential to do surprisingly well in the 1¼-mile race. He appeared to have plenty of juice left when he closed out the Wood Memorial a month ago for the win.

He's a longshot worth backing.