UFC 301: B/R Main Card Staff Predictions
Saturday's UFC 301 card will be the promotion's first in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil since UFC 283 in January of 2023. There have been some complaints about the quality of the line-up, and while there's certainly no denying it's a bit short on household names, it looks like it could we could be in for a very entertaining night of fights nonetheless.
In a somewhat unusual twist, the top spot for the card will go to the flyweights, with champion and hometown hero Alexandre Pantoja defending the belt against Steve Erceg from Australia. Pantoja has long stood out as one of the flyweight division's best fighters, but after he won the belt from Brandon Moreno earlier this year, he's the top dog outright. Erceg is a newer face in the division—so much so that people were shocked when he announced as Pantoja's first challenger—but after 11-straight wins, most notably a sizzling one-punch KO of Matt Schnell, he's clearly a threat to anybody in the weight class.
The co-main event could fairly be called the people's main event, as MMA legend Jose Aldo returns from a brief retirement to take on Jonathan Martinez at bantamweight. Aldo is arguably the best featherweight ever, and while he was removed from the bantamweight rankings after announcing his retirement, stands to burst back into the title conversation with a win over Martinez, who is ranked No. 12.
In the middle bout of the main card, No. 10 light heavyweight contender Anthony Smith will look to slow the rise of undefeated Brazilian Vitor Petrino, and take a big step toward a fight with champion Alex Pereira in the process.
Before that, we'll get back-to-back middleweight fights to kick off the main card. First, fast-rising Brazilian Caio Borralho will take on Scottish grappler Paul Craig. Then, Brazilian action fighter Michel Pereira will take on Ukraine's Ihor Potieria.
These are some tough fights to call, but as always, the B/R combat sports squad has you covered for pre-fight predictions. Here's who we see winning in Rio.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg
1 of 5
Haris Kruskic: Although an underwhelming PPV card, the main event should be quite entertaining. Alexandre Pantoja looks to bring some order to the flyweights, a division that hasn't had a two-time defending champion since Demetrious Johnson (!)
He'll attempt to do so against fast-rising Steve Erceg. While a peculiar choice to headline a PPV given he's only ranked tenth in the division, "AstroBoy" is 3-0 in the UFC and coming off a knockout win over Matt Schnell.
I'm taking Pantoja here. This feels like an incredible leap of faith the UFC is taking on Erceg, and it's unlikely to pay off against someone of the veteran's magnitude.
Prediction: Pantoja by submission, Rd. 3
Tom Taylor: If we're being honest, Erceg didn't really deserve this title shot — at least not before guys like Amir Albazi and Brandon Royval. Still, I kind of feel like he's going to win this one. On paper, he is definitely the less skilled fighter than the champ, but he should also have a nice power advantage, and with five rounds to work with, I can't shake the feeling that he's going to land something and tip the MMA world on its axis.
He ends the night as the champ, and a viral sensation.
Prediction: Erceg by KO, Rd. 2
Lyle Fitzsimmons: I appreciate Tom creating some intrigue by forecasting an upset, but I just don't see it. It's not that I think Pantoja is some unbeatable commodity at 125. Far from it, in fact. But 10th-ranked fighters don't often do well against champions. Particularly champions with a home-crowd advantage. It's not a PPV-quality main event but Pantoja will do his bit to make the fans happy.
Prediction: Pantoja by submission, Rd. 2
Jose Aldo vs. Jonathan Martinez
2 of 5
Haris Kruskic: Don't be fooled. This fight is only happening so José Aldo can finish his UFC contract and do whatever combat event he wants. Still, it'll be nice to see the Hall of Famer back in the Octagon.
He'll face Jonathan Martinez who's looking for his seventh straight win against his most notable opponent yet. As much as I'd like to see Aldo end his UFC career with a win, ring rust is a real hurdle for someone who was typically fighting three times a year. It's been nearly two years since his last MMA bout. The math doesn't look very good against a surging opponent.
Prediction: Martinez by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: All I'm going to think about as this fight unfolds is how badly I wish the UFC could have pulled together a showdown between Aldo and his fellow legend Dominick Cruz instead. Martinez is an incredible fighter, and maybe even a future champ, but he's just not the kind of B side Aldo deserves in what should be his final MMA fight.
The odds of Aldo hanging up the 4 oz. gloves for good seem all the higher if he loses this one, and regrettably, that's what I see happening. Martinez will be too fast and too powerful for the former champ, and wins a close fight.
Prediction: Martinez by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Jose Aldo is Jose Aldo. He's a Hall of Famer. He's a legend. He need never pay for a drink in any bar where UFC fans congregate. But he's also 37 years old, hasn't fought in close to two years and hasn't won in even longer. And when matched with a guy who's won six in a row, eight of nine and 1o of 12, it's hard to see a path to victory that isn't clouded by sentiment. Hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. But it won't be enough here.
Prediction: Martinez by TKO, Rd. 3
Anthony Smith vs. Vitor Petrino
3 of 5
Haris Kruskic: I think the best of Anthony Smith is long behind him. Now he's being asked to fight an 11-0 26-year-old in front of his home fans? Will be brief here and say Vitor Petrino uses this fight to launch into the light heavyweight rankings.
Prediction: Petrino by submission, Rd. 2
Tom Taylor: All Anthony Smith has been talking about in the lead-up to this fight is reigning light heavyweight champ Alex Pereira. He doesn't seem to be remotely concerned about Petrino. Given that he also seems to be well out of his prime, as Haris said, I too see the trip to Brazil going very badly for him.
Prediction: Petrino by KO, Rd. 1
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Anthony Smith's walk to the cage at UFC 261 in Jacksonville – the first fan-friendly show after COVID lockdowns – remains one of my single favorite moments in terms of live-event coverage. But it's been more than three years and he's beaten exactly one guy, Ryan Spann, since then while losing three times and being finished twice. I'm hoping for him about as much as with Aldo, but I can't see the results being much better.
Prediction: Petrino by TKO, Rd. 1
Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria
4 of 5
Haris Kruskic: I'm someone whose blood still boils remembering Ihor Potieria celebrating after beating an aging Shogun Rua. Now how do you think the Brazilian crowd will react to him?
Add the fact Michel Pereira is an absolute beast, and there is very little reason to go with Potieria.
Prediction: Pereira by KO, Rd. 1
Tom Taylor: I'm with Haris. I can't escape the memories of Ihor Potieria pummelling "Shogun" a few years back. I don't blame him for winning — I blame the matchmakers for sending a Shogun off in such a stupid matchup — but it left a bitter taste in my mouth.
Pereira should be able to get some revenge for his fellow Brazilian. Potieria has been stopped in three of his last five fights, while Pereira has been flaunting some impressive finishing instincts since moving up to middleweight.
Motion seconded.
Prediction: Pereira by KO, Rd. 1
Lyle Fitzsimmons: It's funny. I'm not really a Pereira guy. In fact, I was a little surprised when I looked at his record and realized he's actually won seven straight fights. I'd have never guessed it was remotely close to that number. So, I get why the guys are high on him to win but I feel like I need to serve some contrarian time, too. Potieiria can crack a bit and he can finish guys. I see him hanging around, exploiting a hole in the local hero's game and getting a surprise. Prediction:
Potieria by TKO, Rd. 2
Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho
5 of 5
Haris Kruskic: Nothing cracks me up more than Paul Craig's intensity leading up to a fight only for him to pull guard a minute into it. Yes, he's dangerous, but Caio Borralho is one of the top young middleweights in the world who may just be more dangerous on the ground.
I'm expecting a few fun scrambles before Borralho finds Craig's neck.
Prediction: Borralho by submission, Rd. 3
Tom Taylor: I'm a Paul Craig fan. It's hard to be a Paul Craig fan.
He's had some brilliant wins over the likes of Magomed Ankalaev, Jamahal Hill and Andre Muniz, but has had just as many tough losses. His recent defeat against Brendan Allen was particularly bad. He looked like he had no business being in the Octagon that night, and despite his submission prowess, was systematically broken down and submitted himself.
He's like a middleweight Michael Chiesa: he's got some great jiu jitsu, but he's just as prone to getting outclassed on the ground as he is to dominating his opponents there.
I expect he'll get the same treatment against Borralho as he did against Allen. Sorry for stealing your prediction again, Haris.
Prediction: Borralho by submission, Rd. 3
Lyle Fitzsimmons: I'm the son of a Scottish-born mother, so having all the feels for Paul Craig is not an issue here. And if I could have anyone's voice for only one day, he's on the list. But this seems like a tough spot. I'm sure the broadcast guys will go hard on his submission mastery and his chances to lure Borralho into an inescapable trap, but it's too likely to me that it's Craig in a bad spot. Maybe not a finish, but a one-sided decision seems imminent.
Prediction: Borralho by unanimous decision
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