Buying or Selling Ronel Blanco, Oswaldo Cabrera and MLB's Most Unexpected Hot Starts
There are always a handful of unexpected players who get off to hot starts at the beginning of each new MLB season, and while many fade, sometimes that strong first few weeks can be the precursor to a breakout season.
So let's take a deep dive into some of the most unexpected hot starts of 2024.
The focus here is on players few expected to be early standouts, so you won't see guys like Mookie Betts, Shane Bieber, Fernando Tatis Jr. or Bobby Witt Jr. on this list despite their stellar numbers. Popular breakout picks like CJ Abrams, Yainer Diaz, Cole Ragans and Spencer Steer were also omitted from the conversation since there were plenty of eyes on them already.
What we're left with is a collection of players outperforming expectations by leaps and bounds, and with a closer look at the numbers, we've made our choice whether to buy or sell that hot start.
SP Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros
1 of 10
Stats: 1 GS, W, 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
Houston Astros right-hander Ronel Blanco gave us what will almost certainly be one of the best stories of the season when he threw a no-hitter in his first start of 2024 and just the eighth of his career.
Not bad for a guy who would not even be in the Opening Day rotation if not for injuries to Justin Verlander and José Urquidy.
"It's been a very long road traveled for me, a lot of ups and downs—a lot of falls and me getting back up," Blanco said through an interpreter. "But I think all of that has been worth it for me to be able to get to this moment."
The 30-year-old did not even start pitching until he was 18 years old, and the Astros signed him for just $5,000 out of the Dominican Republic.
After allowing just six hits over 15.2 scoreless innings while racking up 18 strikeouts during spring training, it does seem like he has turned a corner, and the development of his changeup as a go-to pitch after he threw it just 9.0 percent of the time last year looks like the X-factor.
Buy or Sell: Buy
OF JJ Bleday, Oakland Athletics
2 of 10
Stats: 7 G, .333/.379/.593, 9 H, 4 XBH (1 HR), 4 RBI, 2 R
JJ Bleday sent his draft stock soaring during his junior season at Vanderbilt University, hitting .347/.465/.701 with 27 home runs and 72 RBI in 71 games before going No. 4 overall in the 2019 draft to the Miami Marlins.
He struggled to live up to expectations during his first few seasons of pro ball and hit just .167/.277/.309 for a 66 OPS+ over 238 plate appearances as a rookie in 2022 at which point the Marlins cut their losses and traded him to the Oakland Athletics in a one-for-one swap for A.J. Puk.
The 26-year-old hit .195/.310/.355 for a 91 OPS+ with 11 doubles, 10 home runs and 27 RBI in 303 plate appearances last season, and he made strides with his walk rate (12.6% to 13.9%), strikeout rate (28.2% to 23.8%), hard-hit rate (33.8% to 35.3%) and average exit velocity (86.3 to 88.6 mph).
His on-base ability might be his best present tool, and he can turn around a mistake, but his batted-ball metrics are still below average and make it difficult to fully buy into a breakout campaign at this point.
Buy or Sell: Sell
3B Oswaldo Cabrera, New York Yankees
3 of 10
Stats: 7 G, .346/.393/.615, 9 H, 3 XBH (2 HR), 7 RBI, 4 R
Oswaldo Cabrera was never a top-tier prospect during his time in the New York Yankees farm system, peaking at No. 8 in the organizational rankings in 2022 and never earning a spot on leaguewide Top 100 lists.
The 25-year-old made the most of his first MLB opportunity in 2022, posting a 108 OPS+ with 15 extra-base hits and 2.0 WAR in 44 games while seeing action at six different positions defensively.
Expected to serve as the team's primary left fielder in 2023, he instead hit .211/.275/.299 with an ugly 58 OPS+ over 330 plate appearances, and he finished with minus-1.5 WAR as one of the team's least productive players.
He entered spring training as something of an afterthought, expected to at best be a utility infielder in a bench role, but an injury to DJ LeMahieu opened the door for him to see regular action at third base.
His 2023 numbers are accompanied by a .208 expected batting average, so luck has played a major role in his early success. He can still be a useful utility piece, but maintaining his current numbers is a long shot.
Buy or Sell: Sell
.png?w=256)
C Luis Campusano, San Diego Padres
4 of 10
Stats: 7 G, .400/.400/.600, 12 H, 4 XBH (1 HR), 7 RBI, 5 R
After years as a top prospect in the San Diego Padres farm system, Luis Campusano finally got an extended look in the big leagues last year while splitting catching duties with Gary Sánchez during the second half of the season.
The 25-year-old hit .319/.356/.491 with seven doubles, seven home runs and 30 RBI in 174 plate appearances, and that was accompanied by a .305 expected batting average that backs up his potential to repeat that production over a full season.
With Sánchez gone in free agency, Campusano is now the unquestioned starter with Kyle Higashioka serving as his backup, and he is off to a terrific start at the plate.
He has put the ball in play in 29 of his 30 plate appearances, and he has been absolutely crushing breaking pitches, hitting .727 against them during that small sample size.
Behind the plate, he is 1-for-3 on nabbing base stealers in the early going after allowing 29 of 30 to steal on him a year ago. He still has work to do defensively, but the pieces are there for him to be an All-Star-caliber backstop.
Buy or Sell: Buy
OF Michael Conforto, San Francisco Giants
5 of 10
Stats: 7 G, .370/.414/.778, 10 H, 5 XBH (3 HR), 9 RBI, 8 R
Most of the guys highlighted in this article are young up-and-comers who are enjoying a newfound level of success in the early going this year, but Michael Conforto is no stranger to big league production.
The 31-year-old entered the season with a 120 OPS+ and 16.3 WAR over eight seasons, and his resume includes an All-Star appearance in 2017 and a 33-homer, 92-RBI campaign in 2019 during his time with the New York Mets.
After sitting out the entire 2022 season recovering from shoulder surgery, he signed a two-year, $36 million contract with the San Francisco Giants last winter, but he looked like a player who had missed a full year.
He hit .239/.334/.384 for a 99 OPS+ with 15 home runs and 58 RBI in 470 plate appearances, and his batted-ball metrics were below the 50th percentile across the board.
This season has been a different story, with an elite 50.0 percent hard-hit rate and a career-high 93.2 mph average exit velocity, and his rebound performance could be the real deal for a Giants team with a new-look lineup.
Buy or Sell: Buy
SP Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox
6 of 10
Stats: 2 GS, 1-1, 1.38 ERA, 13.0 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 16 K
Armed with a high-octane fastball and a wipeout slider, Garrett Crochet was taken No. 11 overall in the 2020 draft, and he jumped straight to the majors and made his MLB debut later that year with six scoreless innings of relief for a Chicago White Sox team that reached the playoffs.
The following year he was one of the team's top setup relievers, logging a 2.82 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 with 13 holds in 54 appearances, but his entire 2022 campaign was wiped out by Tommy John surgery.
The 24-year-old made 13 relief appearances in his return to the mound last year, but the new front office decided to shift him back into a starting role this spring after he served as a starter at the University of Tennessee.
The late-spring move to trade Dylan Cease to the San Diego Padres thrust Crochet into the role of Opening Day starter, and he has logged a pair of quality starts to open the 2024 season against the Detroit Tigers (6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 8 K) and Atlanta Braves (7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 8 K).
With a fastball that has averaged 97.0 mph, a slider that has generated a 33.3 percent whiff rate and an improved cutter that serves as a solid third offering, he has the stuff to be a legitimate breakout star in the South Siders rotation.
Buy or Sell: Buy
3B Maikel Garcia, Kansas City Royals
7 of 10
Stats: 7 G, .267/.281/.700, 8 H, 6 XBH (3 HR), 8 RBI, 4 R
Maikel Garcia was a solid contributor for the Kansas City Royals last season, emerging as the team's primary third baseman as a rookie while hitting .272/.323/.358 with 28 extra-base hits and 23 steals in 123 games.
Is his power surge real?
The 24-year-old hit just 17 home runs over 1,800 plate appearances during his time in the minors, and he had four long balls in 515 plate appearances last season, so the fact that he has already almost reached last year's total is shocking to say the least.
There is some reason to believe he has taken a step forward.
He already has six barrels after tallying just 14 barrels all of last season, and a better launch angle (6.1 to 11.9 degrees) could help him maximize his ability to make consistent hard contact.
He is not suddenly going to be a 30-homer threat, but his uptick in power production does look like it could be somewhat sustainable.
Buy or Sell: Buy
1B/OF Connor Joe, Pittsburgh Pirates
8 of 10
Stats: 6 G, .346/.469/.615, 9 H, 5 XBH (1 HR), 7 RBI, 9 R
Connor Joe had a quietly productive season for the Pittsburgh Pirates last year, hitting .247/.339/.421 for a 107 OPS+ with 31 doubles, 11 home runs and 42 RBI.
His middling defense playing primarily corner outfield made him just a 0.7-WAR player in 133 games, but he has always had some intriguing offensive upside, and now he is filling a utility role platooning with Rowdy Tellez at first base while also making starts at designated hitter and in left field.
The 31-year-old already has three multi-hit games, and he spent the first five games of the season penciled into the leadoff spot in the Pittsburgh lineup.
The Pirates are off to a hot start, and he could be a solid under-the-radar contributor in the lineup this season if he continues to see regular playing time.
He has always had solid offensive upside, and this could be the year he finally gets some national attention.
Buy or Sell: Buy
RP Cade Smith, Cleveland Guardians
9 of 10
Stats: 3 G, 4.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
The Cleveland Guardians are as good as any team in baseball at developing pitching talent, and it looks like Cade Smith might be their latest success story.
The Guardians signed Smith for $20,000 as an undrafted free agent out of the University of Hawaii following the shortened 2020 draft, and he began the year as the No. 24 prospect in the Cleveland system.
The 24-year-old had a great 2023 season, pitching for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic before tallying 15 saves and striking out 95 batters in 62.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.
He pitched his way onto the Opening Day roster with a strong spring, and he has struck out nine of the first 16 batters he has faced to begin his MLB career. He has pitched mostly in low-leverage spots thus far, but with a lively mid-90s fastball and a good splitter, he could emerge as a key arm as the season unfolds if he keeps consistently missing bats.
Buy or Sell: Buy
RP Abner Uribe, Milwaukee Brewers
10 of 10
Stats: 3 G, 3/3 SV, 3.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
With All-Star closer Devin Williams sidelined with two stress fractures in his back, the Milwaukee Brewers have turned to young right-hander Abner Uribe to close games.
So far, so good.
The 23-year-old had a 1.76 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 with eight holds and one save in 32 appearances as a rookie last season, and he has the electric stuff to be a staple in the late innings for the next decade.
He averaged 99.4 mph with his sinker and generated a 58.1 percent whiff rate with his slider last year, giving him the prototypical late-inning arsenal, though his 20 walks in 30.2 innings did speak to where he still needed to improve.
He has walked just one batter through three innings of work this year while nailing down all three of his save opportunities, though Pete Alonso did turn him around for a solo home run last Saturday.
The closer's job will be waiting for Williams once he returns, but Uribe is more than capable of holding down the fort before shifting into a primary setup role. He could be what Bryan Abreu was for the Houston Astros the last few seasons.
Buy or Sell: Buy
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
