Men's NCAA Tournament 2024: B/R Expert Predictions for Elite Eight

All eight top-two seeds entered the Sweet 16—only the fifth time in the 64-team era—but only three are headed to the Elite Eight of the 2024 men's NCAA tournament.

Top seeds Houston and North Carolina both dropped heart-breakers, along with No. 2 seeds Arizona, Iowa State and Marquette.

But that means the Elite Eight is loaded with a fun group.

Illinois hasn't reached this stage in 19 years, while it's been 20 seasons for Alabama. ACC schools North Carolina State and Clemson have snapped 38- and 44-year droughts, respectively.

B/R has provided a preview of the weekend's matchups and an expected path to victory for each team, along with predictions from our college basketball writers.

Tennessee vs. Purdue

Mike Mulholland/Getty Images

Zach Edey

Tipoff: Sunday, 2:20 p.m. ET

Tennessee Wins If: The supporting cast shows up for Dalton Knecht again. Defense is the Vols' strength, but they absolutely, unequivocally beat Creighton because the other guys hit some shots efficiently. Zakai Zeigler had 18 points and six assists, while Josiah-Jordan James scored 17 points. They combined for a 6-of-11 mark from three.

Purdue Wins If: Braden Smith continues his surge, in addition to the Boilers' excellent long-range shooting. Smith racked up 14 points and 15 assists in the Sweet 16 victory, and four Purdue players buried a pair of triples. Few things are more devastating to a defense than "it seems like everyone is hitting threes," and Purdue—at its best—has that upside while boasting All-American center Zach Edey in the post.

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Predictions

David Kenyon: Purdue

Kerry Miller: Tennessee

Joel Reuter: Purdue

NC State vs. Duke

Greg Fiume/Getty Images

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 14: Kyle Filipowski #30 of the Duke Blue Devils drives to the basket in the second half against Mohamed Diarra #23 of the North Carolina State Wolfpack in the Quarterfinals of the ACC Men's Basketball Tournament at Capital One Arena on March 14, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

Tipoff: Sunday, 5:05 p.m. ET

NC State Wins If: The combination of improved defense and fortunate three-point variance stays in the Wolfpack's favor, plus not allowing many offensive rebounds. Duke buried nine threes and snatched 17 of its misses in a February win over NC State but tallied five and 10, respectively, when the Pack upset the Blue Devils in the ACC tournament.

Duke Wins If: Well, the opposite, right? In seriousness, this may be a battle of the backcourts. As you'd expect, Duke has an advantage in pure talent. That doesn't necessarily lead to wins, but the Blue Devils do not lack playmakers on the perimeter—both as passers and shooters.

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Predictions

David Kenyon: Duke

Kerry Miller: Duke

Joel Reuter: NC State

Illinois vs. Connecticut

Michael Reaves/Getty Images

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - MARCH 28: Donovan Clingan #32 of the Connecticut Huskies high fives Stephon Castle #5 against the San Diego State Aztecs during the second half in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at TD Garden on March 28, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Tipoff: Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET (TBS)

Illinois Wins If: The offense has a lights-out performance. It's safe to assume Terrence Shannon Jr. will be around 20-plus points, and the Illini certainly expect Marcus Domask and Coleman Hawkins to hit their double-digit averages. To keep up with UConn, however, Illinois likely needs the complementary pieces—especially Quincy Guerrier and Luke Goode on the perimeter—to knock down a few timely shots.

UConn Wins If: An elite team continues to play anywhere close to its ceiling. So far during the NCAA tournament, the Huskies have connected on 50.8 percent of their attempts while holding opponents to a 34.9 clip. That's not glamorous analysis, sure, but UConn is undeniably the most dangerous team in the country.

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Predictions

David Kenyon: UConn

Kerry Miller: UConn

Joel Reuter: UConn

Clemson vs. Alabama

C. Morgan Engel/NCAA Photos via Getty Images

Mark Sears

Tipoff: Saturday, 8:49 p.m. ET (TBS)

Clemson Wins If: Cade Klubnik—wait, sorry. Clemson wins if a surging defense shuts down the three-point line. Clemson held New Mexico, Baylor and Arizona to a combined 18.7 clip, which is probably unsustainable and nonetheless very impressive. Alabama is 20-2 this season when it shoots 35-plus percent from long distance and otherwise 4-9. (Alabama hit 31.4 percent in the November loss to Clemson.)

Alabama Wins If: Along with burying more triples than Clemson's recent foes, second-chance opportunities lean heavily in the Tide's favor. Clemson has yielded 13 offensive rebounds per game in March Madness, and Bama corrals its misses at the 29th-highest rate nationally.

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Predictions

David Kenyon: Alabama

Kerry Miller: Alabama

Joel Reuter: Alabama