2024 Awards Predictions: Our MVP Lock + a Ballot Takeover for OKC Thunder?
Just when it seemed all of the NBA's major awards were locked down with only a few weeks left in the season, we've got one significant shake-up to discuss, plus at least two more races that are getting tighter by the day.
Rudy Gobert remains the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, but how much longer can he hold off Victor Wembanyama and his increasingly gaudy numbers—now featuring actual team success!
Gobert's teammate, Naz Reid, is making a real run at Malik Monk for Sixth Man of the Year, and the Oklahoma City Thunder's Jalen Williams just refuses to stop getting better. Might he be making a late surge to track down Coby White for Most Improved?
We're heading down the home stretch, but these awards races aren't over yet.
MVP: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
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Other than Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards possibly giving Jayson Tatum a run for fifth place, not much has changed in the MVP forecast. Nikola Jokić's grip on the top spot remains firm, as his Denver Nuggets have quietly posted the best record and net rating in the West since the All-Star break.
Jokić has a trio of 30-point efforts since we last checked in on awards two weeks ago, and he continues to tailor his approach to whatever the game demands.
Sometimes that means keeping the ball moving against a Miami Heat defense committed to forcing it out of his hands. That restrained effort on March 13 produced a 12-point victory with just eight field-goal attempts. Others, it means bludgeoning a Minnesota Timberwolves team lacking size (due to the absences of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns), racking up 35 points on 14-of-22 shooting in a three-point win on March 19.
Don't worry, his passing is still generating head-spinning highlights.
Jokić controls the game like no on else. His ability to manipulate the nine other players on the floor is a superpower that truly sets him apart.
Runner-Up: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
SGA continues to grade out ahead of Jokić in Estimated RAPTOR and Estimated Plus/Minus, so his case for an MVP remains legitimate if you focus solely on advanced metrics. He also grades out just fine from a team-success standpoint, as OKC is right there with Denver in the fight for No. 1 out West.
That said, tiny signs of slippage are evident in the wake of the league's officiating changes. Gilgeous-Alexander's offensive game is as varied and adaptable as anyone's, and it's wrong to say he depends on foul-drawing craft to be effective. But that's long been a real skill for him, and the league is reducing its value by allowing more defensive contact than it used to.
As a result, SGA's scoring rates and free-throw attempt rates are trending down. He got to the foul line 15.2 times per 100 possessions in January, but that number slipped to 10.1 in February and sits at 10.5 to this point in March.
With full-season averages of 30.5 points, 6.3 assists, 5.6 boards and a league-leading 2.1 steals, Gilgeous-Alexander is still on a historic pace. But it's not quite historic enough to run down Jokić.
Worth a Mention: Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks; Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks; Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics; Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
Rookie of the Year: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
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The highlights often feel like enough to solidify Victor Wembanyama's case for Rookie of the Year on their own. He's pulling off three or four physical feats in every game that no one else in the league could accomplish.
Now, though, we're also starting to see evidence that Wemby's nightly reel of jaw-dropping plays are actually fueling team success.
In the month of March, the San Antonio Spurs have a 103.2 defensive rating with Wembanyama on the floor, a figure that would rank roughly five points per 100 possessions ahead of the league-leading Timberwolves over a full season. Take Wemby out of the game, and the number balloons to 116.6. Due in large part to that defensive swing, the 16-56 Spurs are posting a plus-3.4 net rating with Wembanyama in the game this month.
He's had his rough patches, most of which came early in the year. But the current version of Wemby has clearly grown and is now showing the ability to elevate team performance at superstar levels. This is the beginning of something special, and it almost feels wrong to even compare him to other rookies.
The ROY race is officially over.
Runner-Up: Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
It's increasingly clear the Thunder will have to settle for a pair of second-place awards finishes. Just as Jokić, an all-time great, stands in SGA's way for MVP, Holmgren's rookie season won't be enough to overtake Wembanyama's generational performance for Rookie of the Year.
Under normal circumstances, both Thunder players would be clearing space on their mantles for some shiny new additions.
Holmgren may have played his best game of the season in a 119-107 win over the Utah Jazz on March 20, banging out a career-high 35 points on just 18 field-goal attempts and hoarding 14 rebounds. He also reminded everyone that Wemby's not the only first-year highlight factory.
Worth a Mention: Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets; Dereck Lively II, Dallas Mavericks; Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors; Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets; Keyonte George, Utah Jazz
Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Rudy Gobert didn't look like someone who'd missed over a week with a rib injury against the Cleveland Cavaliers on March 22, providing his typical deterrent effect inside and even switching out successfully onto shifty point guard Darius Garland during the Minnesota Timberwolves' 104-91 win.
The 15 rebounds and two blocks Gobert registered against the Cavs weren't anything out of the ordinary, and neither were the 37 minutes he logged. In fact, his 34.0 minutes per game are within a hair's breadth of his career high, and Gobert has averaged significantly more than that—37.3 per contest—since the All-Star break. As Minnesota plays higher and higher leverage games, Gobert's role is only increasing.
We know Gobert is the leader of the league's best defense, and we also know he remains the best field-goal-percentage suppressor at close range. But when weighing his DPOY candidacy against that of, say, Victor Wembanyama, it's important to consider Gobert's sheer volume of playing time. He's been on the floor for over 350 more minutes than Wemby has.
Runner-Up: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
We already cited Wemby's incredible on-off impact over the last few weeks, and no one should overlook his lead (plus-3.2 to plus-2.5) over Gobert in Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus. If this were "Defensive Player of the Last Few Weeks", we'd have no choice but to move Wembanyama into the No. 1 spot.
The highlights that trickled out earlier in the year are a torrent now, overwhelming news feeds and timelines much like Wembanyama does to the opposition. He's making plays we've never seen before, turning in six- and seven-block games as if it's normal and averaging 4.4 swats per contest since the All-Star break, double the rate of anyone else besides Gobert.
Worth a Mention: Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat; Jarrett Allen, Cleveland Cavaliers; Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers; Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic
Sixth Man of the Year: Malik Monk, Sacramento Kings
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Everybody has off nights, but only a couple of players have had worse showings than Malik Monk did against the Orlando Magic on March 23. The guy we're sticking with as the likely Sixth Man of the Year put up 11 shots in 22 minutes and missed all of them. Only two players, Aaron Gordon and Saddiq Bey, have gone 0-of-12 in a game this year, so at least Monk didn't earn the distinction of having the absolute worst "0-fer" of the season.
Plus, his Sacramento Kings managed to beat the Magic by a final of 109-107 anyway, despite Monk's minus-22 on the night.
That was an outlier in an otherwise unimpeachable 6MOY case.
Monk averaged 20.8 points per game on 48.2 percent shooting in the four games leading up to that dud, three of which the Kings won. His 98 clutch points are tied for ninth in the league and first among backups by a considerable margin. That Monk is on the court contributing in the moments that matter most separates him from his peers, many of whom pile up stats against backups outside of crunch time.
Runner-Up: Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves
Monk remains a massive betting favorite, but Naz Reid's recent insertion into the starting lineup for the injured Karl-Anthony Towns is ironically strengthening his Sixth Man case.
Reid is making efficient double-doubles part of his routine lately, going for 20 points and 12 boards on 7-of-11 shooting in a win over the Golden State Warriors on March 24 and hanging 22 points, 12 rebounds, five assists and two blocks on the Utah Jazz earlier this month. His overall March numbers—17.1 points and 7.0 rebounds with a 60.9 true shooting percentage—look like those of a high-end starter, and that's before considering he's still only averaging 28.2 minutes per game.
Worth a Mention: Norman Powell, LA Clippers; Bobby Portis, Milwaukee Bucks; Jordan Clarkson, Utah Jazz; Bogdan Bogdanović, Atlanta Hawks
Most Improved Player: Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Jalen Williams overtakes Coby White in this edition, knocking the Chicago Bulls' starting point guard out of the spot he's occupied for several weeks. No shade toward White, but Williams' relentlessly staggering efficiency and critical role on a potential No. 1 seed speaks to the degree of his growth.
Up to 19.2 points, 4.5 assists and 4.0 rebounds per game on an incredible 54.1/44.1/81.5 shooting split, Williams has made at least half of his attempts from the field in 11 of his last 12 games. It's not just that Williams is hitting shots more often than he did as a rookie. It's that he's creating them so differently.
Last year, J-Dub was assisted on 90.4 percent of his made threes. He's down to 75.3 percent in 2023-24, which means he's now generating over twice as many off-the-bounce triples. Pair that with a mid-range arsenal that simply didn't exist last season and improved foul-drawing craft, and you get a sense of why he, not MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, leads the Thunder in fourth-quarter scoring.
Put plainly, Williams looked like a solid starter and complementary player last year. Now, after adding so much to his game on both ends (you'll catch J-Dub guarding everyone from Giannis Antetokounmpo to Stephen Curry), he's playing like a potential first-option star.
Runner-Up: Coby White, Chicago Bulls
White has made at least half of his field-goal attempts in only three of his last 11 games. While that doesn't diminish the fact that he's added almost 10 points per game to his scoring average since last year, it does at least raise the possibility that some of White's improvement owes to additional playing time.
This award shouldn't go to the guy whose numbers only spike because he's playing more.
White's strides are real. He looks like a legitimate starter who can impact the game on both ends, which wasn't the case a year ago. But much like the leap from 50 wins to 60 wins is tougher in a team context than the climb from 40 to 50, we need to acknowledge that Williams' jump is at a higher elevation than White's.
Worth a Mention: Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks; Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors; Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers;
Clutch Player: DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls
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Stephen Curry still has the edge in total clutch scoring, and it's noteworthy that his 176 points have come in 48 fewer minutes than DeMar DeRozan's 172. But for awards like this, results have to matter.
So in addition to raw point figures, we have to highlight how DeRozan's Chicago Bulls fare so much better in close-and-late situations than Curry's Warriors. On the season, Chicago is plus-78 with DeRozan on the floor in clutch situations, miles ahead of the Warriors' plus-four with Curry. As you'd expect, Chicago is a far superior 22-15 when games go into clutch time. Golden State is a pedestrian 19-18.
Do those numbers fail to acknowledge opponent shooting and the way it can skew individual plus-minus stats? And do they gloss over the fact that Curry has made more clutch threes (29) than the next two highest-volume snipers combined (Buddy Hield and Damian Lillard have 12 apiece)?
Sure. But they also don't change the fact that DeRozan has been the most positively impactful, high-scoring, game-altering clutch force in the league this season.
Runner-Up: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
We gave Curry his due already, but that had more to do with justifying how DeRozan deserves to rank ahead of someone with more scoring volume for an award that tends to favor lots of points.
Jokić is only fourth in clutch scoring, but he's also eighth in assists, fourth in rebounds and seventh in made free throws. Oh, and his 57.6 percent hit rate from the field is tops among everyone with at least 100 clutch points.
It's almost as if his skill set is so complete and his mastery of the game so undeniable that Jokić can swing late-stage results in whatever way is necessary. Weird, right?
Worth a Mention: Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks; Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors; Coby White, Chicago Bulls
Coach of the Year: Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder
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The Thunder finally break through!
Though Mark Daigneault winning Coach of the Year may not totally offset the disappointment of SGA and Chet Holmgren finishing one spot short of MVP and Rookie of the Year, at least the Oklahoma City Thunder's level-up year won't go totally unrecognized come awards season.
We've harped on Daigneault's tactical acumen and the credit he deserves for guiding the NBA's second-youngest team to the second-best net rating in the league. So how about some slightly more niche praise for Daigneault's weaponization of the coach's challenge?
Though he doesn't have the highest overall success rate, Daigneault uses his challenges more often than anyone else and has tended to get them right at the best rate of anyone else who pushes back on a ruling as frequently as he does. His philosophy on being a high-volume challenger belies an edge-seeking competitiveness that seems connected to the way Daigneault's Thunder are always in attack mode.
"I also like doing it because it sends a message to the officials that we're aggressive with it," he told Joel Lorenzi of the Oklahoman. "I want officials going into the game knowing we're a quick trigger with that."
You're on notice, refs. Daigneault and the Thunder are always ready to pounce on an iffy call.
Runner-Up: Jamahl Mosley, Orlando Magic
This is Mosley's first appearance in the runner-up spot, as his Orlando Magic continue to threaten for a top-four playoff seed in the East. Orlando's offensive limitations seem more personnel-based than anything else, and Mosley might actually deserve credit for coaxing a 21st-ranked scoring rate out of a squad that lacks a complete pass-dribble-shoot offensive leader in the backcourt.
On the other end, where we tend to ascribe success on defense to coaching schemes and motivational skills, the Magic are terrifyingly good.
Worth a Mention: Chris Finch, Minnesota Timberwolves; Joe Mazzulla, Boston Celtics; JB Bickerstaff, Cleveland Cavaliers; Willie Green, New Orleans Pelicans
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate entering games March 26. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
