2024 Awards Predictions: Nikola Jokić's MVP Statement + Coby White's Surge to MIP
Nikola Jokić is playing like someone intent on wrapping up his third MVP award with several weeks left in the season, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn't going anywhere as his Oklahoma City Thunder try to hold off a horde of contenders vying for the West's top seed.
That high-stakes race is just one of many nearing the finish line as the 2023-24 season speeds toward its conclusion.
Meanwhile, the 65-game limit for awards consideration is rearing its head, knocking out some contenders entirely and eliminating the margin of error for others.
With fewer than 20 games to play, here's where all of the current NBA awards races stand...and how we think they'll ultimately play out.
MVP: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
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MVP cases aren't made in a single game, and it's not like Nikola Jokić's 32 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists in the Denver Nuggets' 115-109 win over the Boston Celtics on March 7 were all that far from his season averages of 26.2 points, 12.3 rebounds and 9.2 assists. But if anyone needed an example of the unmatched control and technical mastery Jokić exerts on games, that performance offered it.
While the East-leading Celtics struggled to generate good looks down the stretch of a contest that had a definite playoff feel, Jokić calmly dissected possessions time and again. He was like a factory whose conveyor belts churn out "correct basketball decisions" without error or deviation.
Jokić is just fourth in Dunks and Threes' Estimated Wins, but he leads in Basketball Reference's Value Over Replacement Player. Numbers aside, that Boston game proved Jokić thinks the game on a higher plane than anyone else.
Runner-Up: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
It was hard to resist moving SGA up a spot in the wake of this mic-drop moment:
In addition to forcing us all to ask "Wait, am I consistent enough?", Gilgeous-Alexander has the Thunder sitting atop the West and riding a 5-2 stretch since we last updated our awards predictions. His 30.6 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists on a 53.1/41.9/87.0 shooting split during that run are closely in line with his full-season stats and mark him as the clear No. 2 behind Jokić.
SGA is an elite version of a player type—elite scoring guard—defenses have seen before and have some sense of how to handle. That distinguishes him from Jokić, who simply can't be defended by any of the currently understood methods.
Worth a Mention: Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks; Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Rookie of the Year: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
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An ankle injury cost him a week's worth of games, but Victor Wembanyama did enough over a smaller sample of contests to solidify his spot here. The definitive moment: Wemby's dominance of a head-to-head matchup with top ROY contender Chet Holmgren on Feb. 29.
Holmgren was no slouch in that game, which the San Antonio Spurs took by a final of 132-118, scoring 23 points, grabbing five boards and handing out five assists while hitting eight of his 12 shots from the field. But Wembanyama didn't just post the superior stat line (28 points, 13 boards, seven assists, five blocks and two steals) and better Holmgren in the plus-minus department (plus-10 to Holmgren's minus-11).
He also did this:
Wemby leads all rookies in scoring during March and has actually bested the typically more efficient Holmgren since our last edition, putting up a 50.9/52.2/84.2 shooting split that outpaces the OKC big man's 49.4/22.2/88.9 effort.
Runner-Up: Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
Let's not misconstrue praise for Wembanyama as criticism of Holmgren, who'd be on track to run away with ROY in most other seasons.
Holmgren is still the more efficient scorer over the course of the year, with his 63.9 true shooting percentage comfortably ahead of Wembanyama's 56.6. He's also one of two players (Brook Lopez is the other) with at least 150 blocks and 100 made triples, which illustrates his two-way impact.
Worth a Mention: Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets; Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors; Keyonte George, Utah Jazz; Dereck Lively II, Dallas Mavericks; Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat
Sixth Man of the Year: Malik Monk, Sacramento Kings
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Malik Monk's last couple of weeks only reinforced his position at the top of our Sixth Man predictions. Though the Sacramento Kings only went 3-3 during this latest stretch, including a brutal home loss to the typically road-win-averse Houston Rockets on March 10, Monk's production and impact remain steadily strong.
Case in point: He was still one of the Kings' best players in that loss to the Rockets, tallying 20 points and five assists on 8-of-16 shooting. That effort paled in comparison to what he did a little over a week prior, completely taking over the proceedings in a 124-120 overtime win on the road against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Monk caught fire late and finished with a career-high 39 points on 16-of-29 shooting, stepping into the star void created by De'Aaron Fox's absence.
Still the leader among backups in clutch scoring average, Monk is extending his lead on the field.
Runner-Up: Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves
With Karl-Anthony Towns out following meniscus surgery, Naz Reid is about to see his counting stats spike. The boost in minutes that'll accompany Reid's new starting role could catch voters' attention, and with his first 64 appearances coming off the bench, there's no danger of him surpassing the starts cutoff for Sixth Man consideration.
Reid is putting up 12.8 points and 4.9 rebounds per game while hitting 41.9 percent of his threes. His ability to stretch the floor from a frontcourt spot is vital to a Wolves offense that always needs spacing, and we should expect him to do a credible KAT impersonation over the next few weeks.
Oddsmakers are already all over this development, bumping Reid up to second at +410 (behind Monk at -240).
Worth a Mention: Norman Powell, LA Clippers; Bobby Portis, Milwaukee Bucks; Bogdan Bogdanović, Atlanta Hawks; Jordan Clarkson, Utah Jazz
Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Rudy Gobert is averaging 10.9 defensive rebounds and 2.9 blocks across his last seven games, putting him first and second, respectively, in those categories during that stretch. And while the Minnesota Timberwolves are just 4-3 in games Gobert has played in that span, they've allowed just 108.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, a figure just one-tenth of a point off the Wolves' league-leading full-season clip.
The leader among NBA regulars in opponent field-goal percentage inside six feet when we tallied the numbers two weeks ago, Gobert's deterrent effect has actually improved, dropping from allowing 48.4 percent to 48.1 percent. The new number, like the old one, is still tops in the league.
With Towns set to miss the balance of the regular season, Gobert's importance to Minnesota is only growing. This scoring-starved group is going to struggle even more severely in its search for points, which means getting stops just got even more important.
Good thing the Wolves have the no-doubt runaway favorite for DPOY.
Runner-Up: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Gobert had better enjoy what'll be his fourth Defensive Player of the Year honor because Wembanyama's recent surge might as well be an announcement that the award will belong to a much younger Frenchman for the foreseeable future.
Wembanyama blocked more shots than seven teams in February and proceeded to deny six shots in his first March appearance, followed by seven in his second. Though he's not besting entire teams in the block category this month, those 13 stuffs in just two games are still good for a No. 3 ranking among all players (many of whom have played a half-dozen games) in March.
Worth a Mention: Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers; Jarrett Allen, Cleveland Cavaliers; Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat; Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Most Improved Player: Coby White, Chicago Bulls
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Toronto Raptors All-Star Scottie Barnes was our pick last time around, but the fractured left hand he suffered on March 1 ended his season and will keep him below the 65-game threshold required to win this award*. His misfortune doesn't detract from what was a legitimate breakout campaign, but it does allow our previous runner-up, Coby White, to move into prime position.
The Chicago Bulls won their first three road games in March, the first time they'd strung that many victories together away from home all year, and White was integral to each of them. His 37 points on 14-of-19 shooting helped Chicago shock the Sacramento Kings on March 4, and he totaled 45 points and 13 assists against just three turnovers over the Bulls' next two wins over the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors, respectively.
On the year, White is up to 19.7 points, 5.3 assists and 4.3 rebounds while hitting 39.1 percent of his triples—all career bests. Once an iffy bet to stick in a rotation as a score-first combo guard, White is now a quality starter at the point.
Runner-Up: Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
Though his teammate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is likely to finish second in MVP voting, it's Jalen Williams who leads the Thunder in fourth-quarter scoring. J-Dub's 374 total points in the final frame are ninth in the league, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is the only player ahead of him with a higher fourth-quarter field-goal percentage.
An ankle sprain knocked Williams out of action after just 10 minutes against the Memphis Grizzlies on March 10, but it hopefully won't prevent him from playing seven more games to reach 65. If Williams gets past that cutoff, his current averages of 19.0 points, 4.5 assists and 4.0 rebounds on a 53.9/44.7/81.7 shooting split will be more than good enough to earn him yet another second-place finish come awards season.
He was No. 2 to Paolo Banchero in 2022-23 Rookie of the Year voting and might actually be the better overall player already.
Worth a Mention: Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers; Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors;
*Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengün joins that unfortunate club as well. He's at 63 games and may not add to his total following knee and ankle injuries suffered in an ugly fall against the Kings.
Clutch Player: DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls
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DeMar DeRozan shoots far fewer threes than any of his competitors for this year's Clutch Player award, but it says something about his late-game focus that he's hit half of the 10 he's taken this season.
Of course, when you get to the foul line a league-high 65 times in the clutch, you don't need the long ball to juice your efficiency.
DeRozan is second to Stephen Curry (165) with 147 clutch points, but his Bulls are a sterling plus-72 in 156 close-and-late minutes. Curry's Warriors, by contrast, are only plus-3. Say what you want about the overall efficacy of isolation basketball and two-point jumpers, but at least acknowledge that, for DeRozan, that mostly outdated style gets the job done in pressurized moments.
It certainly did against Curry and the Warriors in Chicago's 125-122 win on March 7, as DeRozan used his skill and craft to score seven points in the final 43 seconds, eliciting praise from opposing head coach Steve Kerr:
Note, too, that DeRozan has the stamina to show out in crunch time, despite leading the league with 37.9 minutes per game at age 34.
Runner-Up: Nikola Jokič, Denver Nuggets
Jokić barely cracked the "worth a mention" section last time, but with conspicuous clutch showings like the one he had against the Boston Celtics on March 7, a 55.6 percent hit rate from the field that bests every other player with at least 100 clutch points and the basic understanding that the ball cannot be in more capable hands when a bucket is necessary, it was time to move the likely MVP into second place for a slightly less prestigious award.
Worth a Mention: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder; Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors; Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks; Coby White, Chicago Bulls
Coach of the Year: Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Coach and Executive of the Year will be less subject to change than most other awards, as injuries and off nights aren't as likely to impact the races. So with Mark Daigneault's Oklahoma City Thunder winning four of their first five March games and still in possession of the West's top net rating, he holds onto the same front-runner spot he had last time around.
The Thunder are young, but Daigneault has turned that bug into a feature by harnessing the team's energetic nature and focusing it on relentless drive-and-kick attacks. It helps that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's presence settles the whole situation and gives OKC someplace to go when plays break down, and Daigneault is flat-out lucky that Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are so far ahead most players their age (22 and 21, respectively) in the poise and maturity departments.
Oklahoma City is the second-youngest team in the league, ranks among the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency and is now totally assured of home-court advantage in its first-round playoff series. Even if he's had the good fortune of leading a talented roster, Daigneault deserves credit for a great deal of what's gone right in OKC this season.
Runner-Up: Chris Finch, Minnesota Timberwolves
Chris Finch is in for a test with Karl-Anthony Towns set to miss the balance of the regular season. An offense that was already struggling to score will only find things tougher without an ace floor-stretcher whose straight-line drives were often the best of its non-Anthony Edwards bailout options.
Like OKC, Minnesota remains on track to finish among the West's top four. And its defense remains the best in the league.
Who knows, maybe Finch will cook up some new Towns-less recipe that gets the offense to overperform down the stretch. If that happens, and Minnesota makes a run at the No. 1 seed, maybe Daigneault will have a little competition for Coach of the Year after all.
Worth a Mention: Joe Mazzulla, Boston Celtics; Jamahl Mosley, Orlando Magic; JB Bickerstaff, Cleveland Cavaliers; Willie Green, New Orleans Pelicans
Executive of the Year: Brad Stevens, Boston Celtics
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The Boston Celtics are 0-2 against the Denver Nuggets, but it's hard to come up with any other criticisms of the roster Brad Stevens put together. Jrue Holiday is among the league's top five in three-point shooting (among players with at least 400 attempts), while Kristaps Porziņģis is the NBA's preeminent post-up threat against mismatches, giving Boston a pair of new dimensions that have worked exceedingly well against everyone but the defending champs.
Xavier Tillman Sr. has seemingly made every shot he's attempted since coming over at the trade deadline, and that end of the floor is basically gravy for him. His defensive impact as a third big man will both spell Al Horford down the stretch and give the Celtics another option up front in the postseason.
Barring an unlikely surge from another team that knocks the Celtics down from their current perch atop the standings, this award is all sewn up.
Runner-Up: Leon Rose, New York Knicks
OG Anunoby is finally back after a long absence, and hopefully the rest of the injured Knicks won't be far behind. Even if we never see New York with the full complement of talent Rose put together over the summer (don't forget Donte DiVincenzo, perhaps the best MLE signing in the league) and at the deadline, he still deserves credit for remaking the team on the fly.
Worth a Mention: Rafael Stone, Houston Rockets; Mike Dunleavy Jr., Golden State Warriors; Daryl Morey, Philadelphia 76ers
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate entering games March 12. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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