2024 NFL Free Agency, Trade Gambles That Could Make or Break the Season

Any offseason will influence the following year's results, but several NFL teams have recently encountered a metaphorical fork in the road.

Three franchises had to make a tough choice about the future of the quarterback room. Clogged cap sheets required a playoff team to make difficult decisions and a mid-tier contender to embrace a teardown.

While every single route is defensible, each one is a gamble. Sure, it's an educated guess, but a risky one nonetheless.

So far in the offseason, six NFL teams have piqued our attention with a marquee move (or multiple transactions) that can be described as anything but a safe option for 2024.

Steelers' New QB Room

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Russell Wilson and Justin Fields

From a cost perspective, the Pittsburgh Steelers are brilliant.

Sean Payton so desperately wanted to cut Russell Wilson from the Denver Broncos that the Steelers are only paying $1.2 million of his salary. Additionally, they swiped Chicago Bears castoff Justin Fields for a conditional draft pick that's no better than a fourth-round selection.

In turn, Pittsburgh shipped Kenny Pickett to the Philadelphia Eagles, and both Mason Rudolph and Mitchell Trubisky left in free agency.

Rebuilding the position does not mean the Steelers have an open competition, however. Mike Tomlin reportedly told Wilson that he'll be the starter, even after the addition of Fields.

Got all that?

Pittsburgh snuck into the playoffs last season with a carousel under center, so expectations will be higher with Wilson. But if he struggles or the Steelers start slipping, clamors for Fields—an inconsistent player yet still maybe a QB1 in a stable environment—will quickly intensify.

Bears Commit to a Rookie QB

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Caleb Williams and Drake Maye

Speaking of Justin Fields!

Whether you believe the Bears made a good or bad choice, they've officially altered the future of the franchise. Fields is gone, and a rookie selected in the 2024 draft is up next.

Look, the reason is justifiable. Between a poor offensive system and a mediocre supporting cast, Fields never had a great opportunity to succeed. Simultaneously, the franchise was approaching his expensive fifth-year option while holding the No. 1 overall pick of the draft—in a class with Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels.

Chicago traded away the No. 1 choice last season and watched C.J. Stroud lead the Houston Texans to the playoffs as a rookie. (Maybe the Bears would've preferred Bryce Young, but that doesn't change the point.)

There is no guarantee that Williams, Maye or Daniels will be better than Fields. After acquiring Keenan Allen and others, though, at least Chicago is giving its rookie a better chance.

Chargers Revamp the Receiving Corps

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Mike Williams and Keenan Allen

Oh, hey, another easy transition. For the first time in his NFL career, Keenan Allen won't be suiting up for the Los Angeles Chargers.

Brandon Staley's dismissal led to a sweeping change in Los Angeles, which pulled Jim Harbaugh out of the college ranks after he guided alma mater Michigan to a national title. Harbaugh's first order of business was to rework the Chargers' financial picture.

And it resulted in a couple of uncomfortable moves.

In addition to trading Allen, the Chargers released Mike Williams. They'd been integral pieces of the offense since Williams' breakout year in 2018. Now, the main wideouts are Quentin Johnston—who had a very disappointing rookie season—and Joshua Palmer.

Los Angeles should not be interested in short-term solutions, so the transition is defensible.

Nevertheless, that doesn't make the potential of watching a thin receiving corps in 2024 any less difficult for an offense—read: Justin Herbert—that enjoyed a pair of 1,000-yard receivers for several years.

Jags Replace Ridley with Davis

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Gabe Davis

Properly sequencing the events is the fairest way to describe the risk of Gabe Davis joining the Jacksonville Jaguars.

First, last season: Davis made 45 receptions for 746 yards and seven touchdowns, all of which adequately aligned with his career numbers. However, the Buffalo Bills relied on him as their No. 2 wideout, and Davis caught zero passes in four games during which he played 72-plus percent of snaps.

Second, the Jags signed him to a three-year contract with $24 million guaranteed anyway.

Third, they lost Calvin Ridley—who reeled in 76 passes for 1,016 yards and eight scores in his debut season with Jacksonville—to the Tennessee Titans for $47 million guaranteed on a four-year agreement.

That's the context. Here's the summary.

Jacksonville is hoping Davis, a volatile No. 2 behind All-Pro receiver Stefon Diggs in Buffalo, can become a fringe No. 1 receiver next to Christian Kirk.

Bit of a gamble, I would say.

Dolphins Trim the Cap

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Christian Wilkins

You can't pay everyone forever, and the Miami Dolphins had to navigate that unfortunate reality this offseason.

Star defensive tackle Christian Wilkins signed a nine-figure deal to join the Las Vegas Raiders, as did right guard Robert Hunt with the Carolina Panthers. Key defenders Andrew Van Ginkel, Raekwon Davis, Jerome Baker, DeShon Elliott and Brandon Jones also left in free agency.

Cap-strapped Miami cut cornerback Xavien Howard and edge-rusher Emmanuel Ogbah, as well. As the proverbial dust settled, the Dolphins lost Hunt and eight impactful contributors to the defense.

Again, the decisions are sensible. I'm not suggesting a retooled Miami defense absolutely will not be improved, either.

Still, such a dramatic transition—especially with new coordinator Anthony Weaver coming to town—is loaded with risk.

Vikings Let Cousins Walk

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Kirk Cousins

Takeaway 1: Logical and understandable.

Takeaway 2: Courageous and risky.

Entering his age-36 campaign, Kirk Cousins is recovering from an Achilles injury and guided the Minnesota Vikings to a single postseason victory in six years. How much should that be worth to Minnesota?

On the other hand, Cousins—with the asterisk of his health—is a known commodity. Sure, he's not been hugely successful, but the Vikings have consistently had productive offenses and hung around the wild-card chase. It can certainly get a lot worse.

Minnesota's final offer did not convince Cousins to stay; instead, he signed with the Atlanta Falcons.

And now, the Vikings are turning to an unproven option. That'll be either Sam Darnold—who signed a one-year deal—or a rookie presumably taken in the first round of the 2024 draft.