Lakers' Blueprint to Regain Contender Status in 2024

The Los Angeles Lakers aren't winning an NBA title this season.

Do they have a one-in-a-million chance? Sure. Get LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the same roster, and there's always at least a slight possibility that they can work roundball magic. But the math says it isn't happening. Basketball-Reference projections give the Purple and Gold a zero percent chance of winning it all and an 11.4 percent chance of missing the play-in tournament.

So, whenever this campaign comes to a close in Laker Land, it'll be back to the drawing board in hopes of uncovering a formula that gives these aging—but still dominant—stars another crack at capturing the crown. This offseason blueprint might do the trick.

Find a Two-Way Point Guard

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LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 18: D'Angelo Russell #1 of the Los Angeles Lakers handles the ball during the game on March 18, 2024 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images)

While the Lakers like D'Angelo Russell enough to give him a second stint on the squad, they may not fully trust their onetime No. 2 pick. When facing elimination from last year's playoffs, they booted him out of the starting lineup and limited him to fewer than 15 minutes of floor time. And when they re-signed him this past summer, they did so after getting him to waive his implied no-trade clause.

They know that, for as talented as he is and how loud his stats can be, he just isn't a great fit for this roster. He has always been a negative presence on defense, and L.A. can't really maximize the impact of his ball-dominant offense, because doing so would require the team to take touches away from James or Davis.

This is one of the best seasons of Russell's career, and that just hasn't mattered much. The Lakers have only landed a touch above breaking even during his 2,051 minutes (plus-1.6 points per 100 possessions).

L.A. needs to upgrade the lead guard spot this summer. Even getting a less talented player who is a much better fit—more reliable on defense, better off the ball—could go a long way toward aligning all of the puzzle pieces.

Address the Shooting Shortage

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LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 29: LeBron James #23 and Head Coach Darvin Ham of the Los Angeles Lakers look on during the game against the Washington Wizards on February 29, 2024 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images)

One might think—or at least hope—that a team featuring both James and Davis would be overloaded with shooters around them.

James has long been one of the league's most devastating downhill attackers, and even in his age-40 season, that's still very much the case. His 477 points off of drives ranks 22nd overall, while his 59.3 field-goal percentage on those plays is third-best among high-volume drivers. Davis, meanwhile, is a bucket-waiting-to-happen around the basket, tallying 363 restricted-area field goals (third-most) while converting 74.5 percent of those looks.

L.A. should be looking, then, for optimal spacing around those two, but the Lakers are one of the Association's least-threatening teams from three-point land. They shoot a good percentage (37.7, seventh), but the volume is too low for that to matter. They are just 26th in three-point makes and dead last in three-point attempts.

Any player added to the roster this summer must arrive with a reliable jumper in-hand.

Cash in Those First-Round Picks

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SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 22: Los Angeles Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka looks on during the game against the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center on February 22, 2024 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

The Lakers could have broke open their piggy bank at this past trade deadline and gone after the best upgrade available. They stood pat instead, which was less about feeling totally content with this core and more about waiting until their trade budget increases this offseason.

"In terms of what was available at the trade deadline, we had one first-round draft pick," Lakers vice president of basketball operations and general manager Rob Pelinka told reporters. "It was our only sort of hook to fish with. And this summer in June, we, at the time of the draft, we'll have three first-round draft picks to look for deals, which I think will really unlock an access to potentially a greater or bigger swing."

That's a wholly reasonable and understandable stance—provided the Lakers actually put those additional trade chips in play once they're allowed.

There could be some real talent on the trade market this summer, and if L.A. is willing to cobble together its best assets, it might have enough to land a difference-maker. It appears increasingly likely the Lakers need an upgrade of that magnitude to rejoin the championship chase.