Early Predictions for 2024 NHL Free Agency
With the 2024 NHL trade deadline now history, activity in the trade market has died down and will remain that way for the most part until after the Stanley Cup playoffs. Only non-postseason teams will be allowed to make deals with one another from the end of the regular season through the end of the postseason.
As the regular season nears its conclusion and with the playoffs on the horizon, it's a good opportunity to revisit and revise our October 2023 predictions for when the 2024 NHL free-agency period begins July 1.
We've made a couple of adjustments to our list. William Nylander is no longer available, having signed an eight-year, $92 million extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs on Jan. 8. We've added Detroit Red Wings forward Patrick Kane because of his solid comeback from offseason hip surgery.
We've dropped Florida Panthers forward Vladimir Tarasenko and Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brett Pesce. They're both good players but lack the star power of the others on this list.
Do you agree or disagree with our predictions? Let us know in the app comments below.
Jake Guentzel, Carolina Hurricanes
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After nearly eight seasons with the Pittsburgh Penguins, Jake Guentzel was traded on March 7 to the Carolina Hurricanes. A two-time 40-goal scorer, the 29-year-old winger had 52 points in 50 games this season with the Penguins and recently returned to action after being sidelined since Feb. 15 by an upper-body injury.
The Hurricanes brought in Guentzel to provide a boost to their offense. A lack of scoring punch hampered their efforts to win the Stanley Cup since their emergence as a perennial postseason club in 2018-19.
Guentzel is a proven playoff performer with 34 goals and 58 points in as many playoff games. He helped the Penguins in 2016-17 and is expected to play a top-six forward role with the Hurricanes over the remainder of this season.
The Hurricanes have a projected $31.5 million in cap space for 2024-25 with 12 active roster players under contract. They have sufficient space to re-sign Guentzel if he performs up to expectations, especially if they should reach the Stanley Cup Final. He's completing a five-year deal with an average annual value of $6 million.
Prediction
Guentzel will be such a good fit with the Hurricanes that they'll spend to keep him long term even if they have to trade restricted free agent Martin Necas to ensure sufficient cap room to keep him. He could receive a seven-year extension with the Hurricanes worth between $8.5 million and $9 million annually.
Noah Hanifin, Vegas Golden Knights
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Another notable player on the move before the March 8 trade deadline was Noah Hanifin. On March 6, the Calgary Flames shipped the 27-year-old defenseman to the Vegas Golden Knights.
Hanifin was close to signing a contract extension with the Flames in October. However, the club's sluggish start to the season brought those discussions to a halt. Rather than lose him for nothing to free agency, the Flames opted to move him to the Golden Knights. He's carrying a $4.9 million cap hit on his current contract.
A solid puck-moving defenseman in his playing prime who can log big minutes, Hanifin will draw plenty of attention if he decides to test the free-agent market. Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported the Tampa Bay Lightning tried to acquire him before the trade deadline. Friedman also believes it wouldn't be surprising if Hanifin re-signs with the Golden Knights.
The Boston Bruins could also get into the Hanifin sweepstakes on July 1. Boston Hockey Now's Jimmy Murphy reported on March 6 that they'd been linked to the Boston native for most of this season.
Prediction
Hanifin signs a seven-year contract with the Bruins worth an average annual value of $8 million. The Golden Knights and Lightning lack sufficient cap space while the Bruins will have $22.5 million to work with, plus another $5 million if they trade goalie Linus Ullmark. That leaves enough to sign Hanifin plus another UFA if they wish.
Patrick Kane, Detroit Red Wings
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Signed by the Detroit Red Wings in November to a one-year, $2.8 million contract, Patrick Kane faced considerable scrutiny coming off a hip resurfacing procedure in June. Fans and pundits wondered if he'd regain his form or become a mere shadow of himself.
Kane has proven he remains a reliable NHL scorer with 13 goals and 30 points in 33 games. On pace to exceed 40 points, the 35-year-old winger could draw plenty of interest if he decides to go to market on July 1.
The Red Wings could attempt to re-sign Kane given how well he's done in a shortened season. However, he could decide to see how much interest he'll get among the playoff contenders.
At this stage in his career, Kane won't get any long-term offers for big money. However, the future Hall-of-Famer could become an affordable signing for clubs seeking a scoring winger with championship experience.
Prediction
Kane will test the market intent on signing with Eastern Conference playoff contenders on a one-year, bonus-laden deal that could take him up to $5 million. A return with the New York Rangers is possible. Maybe he will return to his hometown team and help the Buffalo Sabres end their long playoff drought.
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Elias Lindholm, Vancouver Canucks
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The Vancouver Canucks acquired Elias Lindholm in a trade with the Calgary Flames on Jan. 31. After netting 32 points in 49 games with the Flames, the 29-year-old two-way center has seven points in 18 games seeing third-line minutes on a deep Canucks roster.
Lindholm's production has declined since his career-high 82 points with the Flames in 2021-22. At that time, he had superstars Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau as his linemates. Their departures from Calgary in the summer of 2022 hurt Lindholm's offense though his defensive skills remain sound.
That could affect Lindholm's efforts to land a lucrative long-term contract following this season. Still, he shouldn't have much difficulty landing with a club where he could fill a top-six role willing to pay a significant raise over his current $4.9 million annual cap hit.
The Boston Bruins could be such a club. On March 5, TSN's Chris Johnston reported hearing the possibility of a three-team trade in which the Bruins acquired Lindholm while the Canucks would receive Jake Guentzel from the Pittsburgh Penguins. That deal never materialized but it speaks to the Bruins' rumored interest in the Swedish center.
Prediction
The Bruins have $22.5 million in projected cap space for 2024-25 and could free up $5 million more by trading goaltender Linus Ullmark this summer. That gives them enough to sign Lindholm to a seven-year contract with an average annual value of $8 million. They'll bet on him regaining his offensive form skating alongside David Pastrňák or Brad Marchand.
Jonathan Marchessault, Vegas Golden Knights
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We noted in our previous free-agent predictions that Jonathan Marchessault was just one of five original members of the Vegas Golden Knights remaining this season. The 33-year-old winger could likely end up being the next to depart.
It's not that Marchessault or the Golden Knights will want to part ways. He's been among their brightest stars over the past seven seasons, winning the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP last season. He's reached a career-high in goals this season with 37 and has tallied 44-plus points during each season of his seven-year tenure in Vegas.
The problem is the Golden Knights' limited salary cap payroll. They have just $9.7 million in projected cap space for 2024-25 with 15 players under contract. They'll gain another $5 million if Robin Lehner remains on long-term injury reserve. Nevertheless, that won't leave much room to keep Marchessault in the fold and fill out the rest of the roster.
Marchessault carries a $5 million annual cap hit on his current contract. He's also at an age where he won't get a long-term deal but could seek a raise of between $7.5 million and $8 million annually on a three or four-year contract. That would take up too much of the Golden Knights' limited cap space
Prediction
Marchessault will hit the open market this summer. The Carolina Hurricanes could come calling if they don't re-sign Jake Guentzel. He could be a target for the Dallas Stars if they part ways with Joe Pavelski. The New York Rangers could bring him in to address their need for a scoring right wing. So could the Florida Panthers if they don't re-sign Sam Reinhart.
Brandon Montour and Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers
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The Florida Panthers carry two players who would become among the top targets in this summer's free-agent market. Brandon Montour is an experienced puck-moving defenseman while Sam Reinhart has emerged over the last three seasons as a dangerous scoring forward.
Montour, 29, didn't come into his own until the Panthers acquired him from the Buffalo Sabres before the 2021 trade deadline. He enjoyed a career-high of 73 points last season and played a role in the Panthers reaching the 2023 Stanley Cup Final. Montour is due for a big raise from his current cap hit of $3.5 million.
Reinhart, meanwhile, was acquired from the Sabres in July 2021. Signed to a three-year deal with an average annual value of $6.5 million, the 28-year-old winger had 33 goals in 2021-22, 31 in 2022-23, and 46 goals and counting this season. He's poised to become the second player in franchise history to reach the vaunted 50-goal plateau.
The Panthers wouldn't be jockeying for first place in the overall standings this season without Montour and Reinhart. Re-signing both could be a tight squeeze in next season's payroll. They have a projected $21.5 million in cap space for 2024-25 with 12 roster players under contract.
Prediction
With the Panthers looking like Stanley Cup contenders for the foreseeable future, they'll find a way to keep Montour and Reinhart. Florida's lack of a state income tax means both could sign for less than market value. Montour could get a five-year deal worth an AAV of $6.5 million while Reinhart could be seven years at $8 million annually.
Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning
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Eyebrows raised around the league last September when Steven Stamkos publicly said he was disappointed in the lack of contract extension talks with the Tampa Bay Lightning last summer. That sparked some speculation over his future with the club but that died down as both sides agreed to wait until the end of this season to begin talks.
The future of the 34-year-old winger will become a hot topic of speculation following the playoffs, especially if the Lightning make an early exit. He's finishing an eight-year deal worth an average annual value of $8.5 million.
As the Lightning's captain since March 2014, Stamkos has led his team through its greatest chapter in franchise history. They won back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021, reached the Cup Final four times, and won the Presidents' Trophy in 2019. He's also set franchise records for games played (1,066), goals (540) and points (1,112).
Stamkos could be unwilling to part ways with the only club he's played for in his 16-season NHL career. While still a valuable player, he's also at the stage of his career when performance inevitably declines. That will affect his efforts as a free agent to land a more lucrative deal elsewhere.
Prediction
The Lightning has 15 active roster players under contract with a projected cap space of $11.5 million for 2024-25. It won't be easy but the Lightning and Stamkos will find a way to make this work. He could accept a three-year contract worth an AAV of $6 million to finish his career in Tampa Bay.
Stats and standings (as of March 15, 2024) via NHL.com and Hockey-Reference.com. Salary cap information via Cap Friendly.
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