Way-Too-Early Predictions for 2024 NHL Free Agency
The Winnipeg Jets and Colorado Avalanche made three significant deals in the same week as the NHL 2023-24 regular season got underway.
Last Monday, goaltender Connor Hellebuyck and center Mark Scheifele inked identical seven-year extensions with the Jets. Four days later, the Avalanche agreed terms with defenseman Devon Toews on a seven-year extension.
Those moves took three of the biggest names in the 2024 class of NHL unrestricted free agents off the market. Others who re-signed with their clubs since July 1 include Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews, Los Angeles Kings center Anze Kopitar, Carolina Hurricanes center Sebastian Aho and New York Islanders goaltender Ilya Sorokin.
Other notable players, such as Leafs winger William Nylander and Tampa Bay Lightning captain Steven Stamkos, could also end up signing new deals with their current clubs. On the other hand, they might end up testing next summer's free-agent market if those negotiations fall through before the 2024 frenzy opens on July 1.
With that in mind, here's our look at 10 impending unrestricted free agents and way-too-early predictions as to where they'll end up next July. We haven't included Patrick Kane on our list as he continues to rehab from offseason hip resurfacing and has yet to sign with a team for this season.
You can weigh in with your thoughts on this topic in the comments section below.
Jake Guentzel, Pittsburgh Penguins
1 of 10
After joining the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2016-17, Jake Guentzel wasted little time establishing himself among their core players.
The 29-year-old winger has netted 20 or more goals and 43-plus points in six straight seasons since 2017-18, including a career-best 40 goals and 84 points in 2021-22.
Guentzel is in the final season of his five-year contract with an average annual value of $6 million. He also has a 12-team no-trade list for this season.
It's clear he has been underpaid for most of this contract. He's put up offensive stats comparable to that of Toronto Maple Leafs winger William Nylander, who is seeking $10 million annually on his next contract, according to Damien Cox of the Toronto Star.
In an Oct. 9 interview with The Athletic's Josh Yohe, Guentzel indicated he wants to stay in Pittsburgh. He cited how much he enjoyed playing alongside Sidney Crosby and praised the club and the city.
"This is where I want to be," he said.
Prediction
The Penguins have a projected $17.2 million in cap space for 2024-25 with 15 active roster players under contract. They will do everything they can to keep Guentzel, though he might have to accept something around $8.5 million annually on a five-year deal. He could be receptive to that if he also gets a no-movement clause in the deal.
Noah Hanifin, Calgary Flames
2 of 10
Calgary Flames defenseman Noah Hanifin earned the No. 3 spot on our September NHL Trade Block Big Board following reports that he told management he wasn't interested in signing a contract extension.
The 26-year-old is in the final season of a six-year contract with an average annual value of $4.9 million and an eight-team no-trade list.
However, a offseason change in coaches and management, along with a summer to reflect, has Hanifin reconsidering his future. On Sept. 13, TSN's Salim Nadim Valji reported the blueliner will wait for this season to play out but is open to a new contract with the Flames.
At 6'3" and 207 pounds, the Boston native is a big-bodied, strong-skating player who logged 22:39 of ice time per game last season, including time on the power-play and penalty-killing units. He reached or exceeded 32 points in four of his five previous seasons with the Flames, including a career-best 48 points in 2021-22.
New Flames general manager Craig Conroy wouldn't want to lose such a key player from his blue line. With $30.2 million in projected cap space for next season and 13 active roster players under contract, there's room to sign Hanifin to a long-term extension with an AAV of around $7.5 million.
Prediction
Hanifin could stick around if the Flames bounce back from last season's disappointing effort. If they miss the playoffs again, though, he could decide that his chances of winning a Stanley Cup lie elsewhere with a club such as the Dallas Stars or the Florida Panthers if they lose Brandon Montour to free agency.
Elias Lindholm, Calgary Flames
3 of 10
A disappointing 2022-23 season for the Calgary Flames prompted Elias Lindholm and Mikael Backlund to express uncertainty over whether they'd sign contract extensions during their end-of-season press conference.
Both players became the subject of trade speculation, especially Lindholm, who topped our September NHL Trade Block Big Board.
Following a change in head coaches and management, though, the vibe seemed to change for both men upon their return for training camp last month. Backlund signed a two-year extension on Sept. 27, while Lindholm indicated he was willing to sign to stay with the Flames after this season.
A skilful two-way center, Lindholm is in the final season of a six-year contract with an average annual value of $4.9 million and lacks no-trade protection. The 28-year-old reached or exceeded 47 points in each of his five previous seasons with the Flames, including a career-best 82 points in 2021-22 and 64 points last season.
With $30.2 million in cap space for 2024-25 and 13 active roster players under contract, the Flames can afford to re-sign Lindholm. They could attempt to sign him to a seven-year deal comparable to the $8.5 million AAV that center Mark Scheifele recently got from the Winnipeg Jets. But the Lindholm camp could seek over $9 million.
Prediction
Lindholm appears to be taking a wait-and-see approach to this season, the outcome of which could determine his future in Calgary. Nevertheless, Backlund's signing could help sway him into staying in the Stampede City, especially if they're willing to pony up $9 million annually. Given his value as the team's first-line center, Flames management could meet his asking price.
Jonathan Marchessault, Vegas Golden Knights
4 of 10
Only five players remain of the original "Golden Misfits" who formed the inaugural roster of the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017-18: Forwards Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson and William Carrier, and defensemen Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb.
Marchessault and Carrier could be next out the door by July as both are eligible for unrestricted free-agent status. The former is in the final season of a six-year contract with an average annual value of $5 million, while the latter is on a four-year deal with an AAV of $1.4 million.
It's apparent that Marchessault will be the most expensive to retain. The winger won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP during the Golden Knights' run to their first-ever Stanley Cup last season. He's been a reliable scorer, netting 22 or more goals five times and 44-plus points six times during his six previous seasons with the team.
It could cost around $6.5 million annually on a five-year deal to keep the 32-year-old in Vegas, but the Golden Knights have just $15.9 million in projected cap space for 2024-25 with 16 active roster players under contract.
Even if Marchessault accepts a similar cap hit to what he has now, it would still take a big chunk out of their cap room.
Prediction
The Golden Knights will keep Marchessault for this season as they attempt to successfully defend their Stanley Cup title but could lose him to free agency given their cap constraints. The Toronto Maple Leafs may view him as a possible replacement for William Nylander, and the New York Rangers could consider him an option to skate at right wing on their top two lines.
Brandon Montour, Florida Panthers
5 of 10
Since his arrival in an April 2021 trade with the Buffalo Sabres, Brandon Montour quickly became a key member of the Florida Panthers' core.
Now in his third season with the Panthers, the 29-year-old is slated to become an unrestricted free agent next summer.
Getting Montour under contract could be a priority for the Panthers. Acquired from the Sabres at the low price of a third-round pick, he became a late bloomer as a skilled puck-moving defenseman who can log big minutes. He followed up a solid 37-point performance in 2021-22 with a career-best 73-point effort last season.
He was terrific for the Panthers during their run to the 2023 Stanley Cup Final, finishing with eight goals and 13 points in 21 games. He laid his body on the line in that postseason, playing through an injured shoulder requiring offseason surgery that has sidelined him until December.
Now in the final season of a three-year contract, Montour is in line for a significant raise over his current average annual salary of $3.5 million. His potential departure via free agency would be a big blow to the Panthers' defense corps.
Prediction
The Panthers have a projected $27 million in cap space for 2024-25 with 10 active roster players under contract. Something between $6.5 million and $7.5 million of that will go toward keeping Montour in the fold on a six-year deal. They need him patrolling their blue line if they hope to remain in Stanley Cup contention.
William Nylander, Toronto Maple Leafs
6 of 10
The Toronto Maple Leafs re-signing Auston Matthews in August put more attention on William Nylander's future with the club. He's in the final year of a six-year contract with an average annual value of $6.9 million and a 10-team no-trade clause for this season.
Over the course of that deal, Nylander has emerged as a scoring star in his own right. He has five seasons with 20-plus goals, including a career-best 40 in 2022-23. He's also collected 61 or more points four times, including 80 in 2021-22 and a career-best 87 last season.
Reports of a lack of progress between the Leafs and Nylander in contract negotiations since the summer landed the 27-year-old winger at No. 4 on our September NHL Trade Block Big Board. It's believed his camp is seeking a long-term deal worth an annual average of $10 million, which is fair market value for a player of his ability.
The Leafs could move Nylander at the March 8 trade deadline if they are unable to re-sign him, but they could also retain him for a possible Stanley Cup run next spring.
Toronto has a projected $33.4 million in cap space for 2024-25 but only 11 active roster players under contract. He will draw plenty of interest if he hits the open market on July 1.
Prediction
Nylander indicated he'd love to stay with the Leafs, but they can't afford to keep him. He'll become a UFA on July 1. The Calgary Flames could use a first-line scorer if Elias Lindholm departs via free agency. The Seattle Kraken could be in the market for additional scoring. A rebuilding club with lots of cap space such as the Anaheim Ducks could also come calling.
Brett Pesce, Carolina Hurricanes
7 of 10
The Carolina Hurricanes' deep defense corps could take a hit after this season with Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei slated to become unrestricted free agents next July. The duo form the team's second defense pairing.
Both blueliners are in the final seasons of their six-year contracts. Skjei, 29, carries a $5.3 million average annual value, while 28-year-old Pesce is earning $4.03 million. Of the two, the latter appeared most often in offseason trade rumors, earning a spot at No. 2 on our September NHL Trade Block Big Board.
Most of the talk about Pesce had the Hurricanes shopping him for a scoring forward. However, The Athletic's Cory Lavalette reported on Oct. 11 that Hurricanes general manager Don Waddell is not actively shopping a defenseman, though he's willing to listen if a rival GM expressed an interest in one of them.
Waddell intends to see how this season pans out before opening contract talks with UFAs such as Pesce and Skjei. With his club considered a Stanley Cup contender this season, he'll likely want to keep his defense corps intact.
Prediction
The Hurricanes have $32 million in cap space for 2024-25, but only nine active roster players under contract. Waddell will likely put his focus on re-signing younger players such as restricted free agents Martin Necas and Seth Jarvis. If Pesce hits the free-agent market, he'll draw interest from potential contenders like the Dallas Stars or Toronto Maple Leafs.
Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers
8 of 10
Florida Panthers general manager Bill Zito paid a big price acquiring Sam Reinhart from the Buffalo Sabres in July 2021.
He shipped out young goalie Devon Levi and a first-round pick, which the Sabres used to select promising forward Jiří Kulich. Zito also signed the restricted free-agent winger to a three-year deal with an average annual value of $6.5 million.
Reinhart enjoyed a career-best performance in 2021-22 with 82 points as he helped the Panthers win the 2022 Presidents' Trophy. His production dropped last season to 67 points, but he still had eight goals and 13 points in 21 playoff games during their run to the Stanley Cup Final.
Last month, the 27-year-old told reporters he wants to stay with the Panthers. He indicated that he wasn't worrying about when extension talks will take place, adding that there's a mutual desire to keep him in Florida.
Keeping the winger in the fold will depend on his performance and that of the Panthers. They have $27 million in projected cap space with 10 players under contract for next season. They have the space to pay him a raise, but how much he wants could collide with how much they're willing to pay.
Prediction
The Panthers also have big-minute defenseman Brandon Montour in need of a new contract, while third-line center Anton Lundell will be a restricted free agent coming off his entry-level deal. Reinhart could become the odd man out here if the team prioritizes signing the other two, which could eat up a big chunk of its cap space.
Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning
9 of 10
During the opening day of training camp, Tampa Bay Lightning captain Steven Stamkos expressed his disappointment at the lack of contract extension talks with management. That raised the possibility (however remote) of him getting moved by the March 8 trade deadline.
However, unless the Lightning's campaign goes off the rails or the forward requests a trade, he's not going anywhere this season. In an Oct. 11 interview with The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun, general manager Julien BriseBois downplayed Stamkos' comments, claiming they're focused on winning the Stanley Cup this season.
However, BriseBois also stated that contract extension talks with Stamkos won't take place until the end of the season. He said he wants to see how well his team performs this year.
The forward is earning an average annual value of $8.5 million in the final season of his eight-year contract. He carries a full no-movement clause, giving him control over whether the Lightning can move him and to what teams.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has $10 million in projected cap space in 2024-25 with 16 players under contract.
Prediction
Despite Stamkos' disappointment, he's not going to push for a trade and BriseBois won't move him. Negotiations could be difficult, but the two sides will likely settle on a three-year contract for slightly less than his current AAV so that he can stick with the only NHL team he's played for.
Vladimir Tarasenko, Ottawa Senators
10 of 10
Following nearly 11 seasons with the St. Louis Blues and a brief sojourn with the New York Rangers, Vladimir Tarasenko became one of the biggest names in the 2023 NHL free-agent market on July 1.
Nearly a month into free agency, though, he wound up accepting a one-year, $5 million contract with the Ottawa Senators.
A six-time 30-plus goal scorer, Tarasenko couldn't find lucrative long-term offers in a tight market for free agents with so many teams carrying limited cap space. Age may have been a factor for the 31-year-old along with a decline in production with just 18 goals in 69 games with the Blues and Rangers last season. He also has a history of shoulder ailments.
The winger is betting on himself with his one-year deal with the Senators. If he can regain his 30-goal form and help the rebuilding club reach the playoffs, it would alleviate any concerns about his level of play or his health heading into next summer's free-agent market.
For the Senators, they're hoping Tarasenko's goal-scoring prowess and his experience as a Stanley Cup champion with the Blues in 2018-19 will provide a boost to their roster.
A big season on his part could also prompt management to attempt to re-sign him. They have $13.6 million in cap space for 2024-25 with 15 active roster players under contract.
Prediction
Tarasenko could mesh well with the Senators and accept a multi-year offer to stay in Ottawa. But it won't be surprising if he parlays what he hopes will be a resurgent season into a better deal with a Stanley Cup contender. The Carolina Hurricanes could be among his suitors.
Player stats via NHL.com with salary info and line combinations via CapFriendly.
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