Winners and Losers of NFL's Early Tampering Period
Technically, free agency in the NFL does not begin until 4 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. But unless you've been hiking the Andes, you know that there has already been a flurry of activity. Dozens of players have switched teams. Hundreds of millions in contracts have been agreed to, even if pen has yet to be put to paper.
You see, it's the NFL's legal tampering period—the league's answer to the fact that players and teams were obviously tampering ahead of the official start of free agency was to essentially throw up their hands and say, "Have at it."
Hey, if it gets the fun started a couple days earlier, why not?
Over these past few days, we have seen Pro Bowl quarterbacks change teams. Star running backs and linebackers not only do so but bolt for division rivals. Defensive linemen and edge-rushers have hit the proverbial jackpot. Tom Brady even un-retired again.
OK, that last one may be made up—I get carried away this time of year.
Now that the official start of free agency is just hours away, let's look back at this year's legal tampering period. Which teams and players made out like bandits, and who could be looking for a do-over before free agency even truly begins?
WINNER: Pittsburgh Steelers
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There's really only one place to start this look at tampering period winners and losers—the Steel City. Because before the tampering period even officially started, the Pittsburgh Steelers had pulled the coup of free agency in 2024—adding a nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback for $1.2 million.
Yes, Russell Wilson's two seasons in Denver weren't as productive as his years in Seattle. The 35-year-old's 3,070 passing yards in 2023 were a career low. But he also threw 26 touchdown passes against just eight interceptions and posted a passer rating of 98.0.
Steelers quarterbacks had 13 touchdown passes last year—combined. Even if you believe that Wilson's best days are behind him, he's an upgrade over Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph—and the Steelers won 10 games and made the playoffs with that dudnamic duo in 2023.
Now, there has been talk that nothing will be handed to Wilson and that he'll compete with Pickett to start. But if you believe that, there's a bridge for sale I can get you a sweet deal on. Wilson didn't agree to play for peanuts so he could watch Pickett—although the $35-plus million the Broncos will be paying him would take quite a bit of the sting out of that.
The Steelers haven't had a losing season during Mike Tomlin's tenure with the team, and it's not just because of his coaching acumen. This organization has a reputation for drafting well and making savvy signings.
Getting Wilson for essentially nothing certainly counts as the latter. And if that wasn't enough, Pittsburgh also addressed arguably its biggest defensive need by stealing away linebacker Patrick Queen from the Ravens on a three-year, $41 million deal.
Now it's just a matter of replacing wide receiver Diontae Johnson, who was dealt to Carolina on Tuesday. Expect that to be a priority moving forward, whether it's with a free agent or an early draft pick.
LOSER: Green Bay Packers
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Might as well get the conversation started.
Right now, fans with foam cheese wedges in their closets are glaring at this and wondering, "How can the Packers be 'losers' of the tampering period?" Green Bay just added the 2022 rushing champion in running back Josh Jacobs and brought in one of the most talented young safeties in the NFL in Xavier McKinney.
Well, let's look at those additions.
Yes, Jacobs paced the league in rushing two years ago, piling up 1,653 yards on the ground and 12 touchdowns. But his numbers backslid last season—Jacobs missed four games, averaged a career-low 3.5 yards per carry and barely cracked 1,100 yards from scrimmage. Despite that backslide, the Packers handed Jacobs $12 million per season and just under $15 million for 2024. That signing necessitated the release of Aaron Jones, whose outstanding play down the stretch last year played a big part in Green Bay making the playoffs.
Jacobs may be younger. But better is another discussion.
Yes, McKinney is an excellent player who excels in coverage. But he's not the sort of "impact" player who takes over games. At $17 million per season, the Packers are paying him as if he is. This was a deep crop of free-agent safeties and the Packers had needs at both spots. For what they paid McKinney, Green Bay could have signed upgrades at both positions—and quite possibly had some money left over.
Add in the not unexpected release of veteran tackle David Bakhtiari and the departure of guard Jon Runyan to the New York Giants, and the Packers spent a lot of money but didn't get appreciably better.
For a team with Green Bay's aspirations, that's just not good enough.
WINNER: Atlanta Falcons
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This one should also generate quite a bit of eye-rolling—because Kirk Cousins is the quarterback many fans love to hate. To them, the idea of handing $45 million per season and $100 million in guarantees to a 35-year-old coming of an Achilles tear who has won one playoff game is an even bigger boondoggle than what the Minnesota Vikings have done the past few years.
Say what you will about Cousins, but from a financial perspective he has handled his NFL career as well as any player ever.
But the Falcons needed an upgrade at quarterback badly enough to roll the dice. And per ESPN's Michael Rothstein, it's a gamble that could pay off handsomely.
"Cousins is a four-time Pro Bowler with a career completion percentage of 66.9," he wrote. Young Atlanta offensive playmakers such as wide receiver Drake London, running back Bijan Robinson and running back Tyler Allgeier have never played with a quarterback of Cousins' caliber. Tight end Kyle Pitts saw only glimpses as a rookie during Ryan's final season in 2021. Cousins has shown he can be clutch, too. Since becoming a starter in 2015, his 27 game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime are tied with Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford for second most in the league, behind Derek Carr's 33, according to ESPN Stats & Information."
The Falcons have skill-position talent (adding more with Tuesday's acquisition of former Chicago Bears receiver Darnell Mooney) and a better defense than many realize. There isn't a more wide-open division in the NFL than the NFC South.
And the Falcons (if Cousins is healthy) now have the best quarterback in the division.
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LOSER: Minnesota Vikings
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There's a flip side to Cousins' departure—the Minnesota Vikings are in limbo at quarterback. The team released a statement in which general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah both thanked Cousins for his six years in the Twin Cities and reassured fans that the team had a plan for this contingency.
"After significant and positive dialogue with Kirk and his representatives, we were unable to reach agreement on a contract that fits the short and long-term visions for both Kirk and the Minnesota Vikings," Adofo-Mensah said. "Kirk holds a special place in Vikings history, and we appreciate his leadership and contributions to the team and the Minneapolis-St. Paul community over the past six seasons. We wish him, his wife, Julie, and their children all the best. Our approach heading into free agency always included layers of contingencies regarding the quarterback position. We are moving forward with plans that allow us to continue building a roster that can compete for a championship."
The question is, what is that plan? A trade for Justin Fields isn't happening—the Chicago Bears aren't dealing him inside the NFC North. Getting even Michigan's J.J. McCarthy in the 2024 draft would probably require a trade up from No. 10. Signing Sam Darnold doesn't exactly inspire confidence. So what's next? And how does this affect Justin Jefferson's future with the team?
But wait, there's more! The team gave $19 million per season to Texans edge-rusher Jonathan Greenard and inked Andrew Van Ginkel as well. Greenard is an excellent player just entering his prime, and Van Ginkel showed flashes a year ago. But Greenard's arrival meant Danielle Hunter's departure to Houston, as fate would have it.
In the short term at least—that's not a net positive either. At least the Vikes upgraded in the backfield with the addition of Aaron Jones.
WINNER: Philadelphia Eagles
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The 2023 campaign was a tale of two seasons. The first was great—the Eagles spent most of the first three months of the season looking like one of the NFC's best teams. The second was a disaster—five losses in their last six games and a blowout defeat at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round.
If the legal tampering period was any indication, the Eagles aren't taking that late-season collapse lying down.
Philly's most surprising signing had to be the three-year, $37.5 million pact with running back Saquon Barkley, a deal that has already ratcheted up tensions in the rivalry between the Eagles and New York Giants. Eagles general manager Howie Roseman usually doesn't invest big money at the position, but ESPN's Tim McManus explained why Barkley is a different story.
"The Eagles view him as a multithreat weapon that excels as a runner, receiver and pass-blocker. The numbers back that up: Since entering the NFL in 2018, Barkley has averaged 98.8 scrimmage yards per game, fifth most in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information. He has rushed for over 5,200 yards and has more than 2,100 receiving yards with a total of 47 touchdowns over six seasons. He has also ranked sixth as a pass-blocker among running backs the past two seasons."
That's not all the Eagles did. Pro Bowl guard Landon Dickerson got a massive extension that averages over $20 million per season. Philly's love of all things edge-rusher continued, with the team agreeing to terms with one of the most effective pass-rushers in the NFL on a per-snap basis last year in Bryce Huff. Matt Hennessy certainly isn't Jason Kelce, but the young center is a capable player with 22 starts under his belt. And safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson is back on a three-year deal—his presence in the Eagles secondary was sorely missed while he was in Detroit in 2023.
Now Roseman just needs to find a trade partner for Josh Sweat or Haason Reddick. Get a decent return for one of those edge-rushers and an already good start to free agency will look that much better.
LOSER: Trevor Lawrence
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The Jacksonville Jaguars didn't sit on their hands during the tampering period—on Monday alone the team signed a handful of veteran players, including a capable veteran safety in Darnell Savage and a former Pro Bowl center in Mitch Morse.
Morse's arrival is admittedly a sizable boost to an offensive line that Dallas Robinson of Pro Football Network ranked 22nd in the league a season ago. That's good news for quarterback Trevor Lawrence as he embarks on what could be a career-defining fourth professional season.
What happened at the wide receiver position was another story.
On its surface, the three-year, $39 million pact signed by Gabe Davis doesn't appear to be a bad deal. Per Adam Stites of Jags Wire, Davis has ranked inside the top 10 in yards per reception in each of his four professional seasons. He's long been considered a rising young vertical threat and contested-catch weapon—especially after he exploded for 201 yards and four scores in a postseason loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
But perception and reality have never really meshed with Davis. Davis has never caught even 50 passes in a season. He has never surpassed 850 receiving yards. The talent is undeniable, but Davis has struggled to gain separation with consistency and dropped almost 10 percent of the on-target passes thrown his way.
Protestations to the contrary aside, bringing Davis in probably means that Calvin Ridley will not be in Jacksonville in 2024. And while Ridley may not have been the offensive force some expected in his lone season in Jacksonville, he's a better player than Davis.
Christian Kirk is going to be very busy this season.
WINNER: Running Backs
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It's not the best era to be a running back in the NFL. Players at the position still take the pounding they always have, but in terms of financial compensation, the running back position has become devalued.
This year, however, possibly due to what's considered an underwhelming rookie class at the position, demand for veteran running backs during the tampering period was high—and more than one ball-carrier did well for himself as a result.
As has already been mentioned, Saquon Barkley got $12.5 million per season to make fans of the New York Giants absolutely furious. The Packers pulled a running back switcheroo, dumping Aaron Jones and adding Josh Jacobs for $12 million per year.
Will those backs see the entirety of those deals? Probably not. But compared to what some backs have gotten in recent years, it's as good as things were going to get.
Derrick Henry got $10 million per season over two years with the Baltimore Ravens—a fit that should terrify the rest of the AFC North. And that's the thing—not only were those backs relatively well-compensated, but all three joined better teams than their previous organization.
Even backs who had rough days saw their fortunes change rapidly. After Jones was released, he quickly found a new home (and the chance to stick it to Green Bay twice a year) in Minnesota. When the Zack Moss signing made Joe Mixon expendable, he was traded to an ascending young offense in Houston.
It wasn't a great time for everyone—Austin Ekeler probably didn't expect to be playing for less than $6 million per season.
But as a whole, a position free agency hasn't been kind to in recent years did well.
LOSER: Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears
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The NFL's quarterback carousel went for quite the spin during the tampering period. Kirk Cousins is now in Atlanta. Russell Wilson is now in Pittsburgh. Sam Darnold is now in Minnesota. Gardner Minshew is now in Las Vegas. Jameis Winston is now in Cleveland.
But every time the music stops and a chair gets removed (OK, we're mixing metaphors here—don't judge me), there's one name about which not much at all has been heard.
Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears.
Maybe it's a matter of the team's asking price. Maybe interest in the 25-year-old just isn't what we expected. But as of right now, Fields is still in Chicago—and the number of places he would ostensibly start in 2024 has shrunk considerably.
At this point, there is open speculation that the Bears could draft Caleb Williams first overall but keep Fields into training camp in the hopes an injury would open up a trade slot a la Sam Bradford when Teddy Bridgewater got hurt in Minnesota in 2016. But that would create quite the Windy City soap opera, and Josh Schrock of NBC Sports Chicago sees that as a bad idea.
"If the Bears want to prioritize maximizing the trade return value for Fields, they could keep him on the roster into training camp and wait for an injury to create the need to drive up value," he said. "But the Bears should prioritize what is best for Williams, their future, and Fields and trade him before mandatory minicamp. It's in the best interest of all parties for this to get done, even if the return is much less than expected."
The choice (right now) is between creating potential friction with the quarterback the Bears are hoping will reverse decades of sketchy play at the position or trade Fields for 30 cents on the dollar.
Neither options is especially palatable.
WINNER: Teams that Exercise Patience
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This might seem a little odd—to call teams that have either done nothing or very little "winners" of the tampering period.
But free agency is a movie that we have all seen before—more than once. And history has shown us that teams that go bananas in the early days of free agency often live to regret it. The 2011 Philadelphia Eagles "Dream Team" is a glaring example of the pitfalls of an early spending spree. But it's not the only one.
It's only natural that fans get antsy when their favorite teams don't do much in the early days of free agency—especially when big names start signing lucrative contracts.
But often times, it's the patient teams who wind up looking the best after a few weeks of free agency frenzy finally starts to die down. Sure, they may miss on marquee names. But inking numerous second- and third-tier free agents to much more reasonable contracts may help a team even more than blowing a huge chunk of cap space on one guy.
The reality is, the longer free agents sit on the open market without a deal, the more their price decreases. It's simple supply and demand. The same goes for trades. The longer a team waits to make a play for a Justin Fields or Josh Sweat, the less that team will probably have to pay for them.
So don't panic about the loss of safety Jordan Poyer or wide receiver Gabe Davis, Bills Mafia—Buffalo didn't have much cap space and general manager Brandon Beane has re-upped some in-house talent like edge-rusher A.J. Epenesa and offensive lineman Dion Dawkins. No worries, Chiefs Nation—Kansas City will do more than drop off a Brinks' truck at Chris Jones' house.
Perennial contenders become perennial contenders not by making knee-jerk moves, but by resisting them—by signing players at value.
Doing that takes patience.
LOSER: New York Giants
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This one almost feels mean—fans of the New York Giants are still smarting over star running back Saquon Barkley not only leaving New York but joining the hated Eagles. But the cold, hard truth is that the tampering period wasn't especially kind to Big Blue—and this is a team with very little margin for error this offseason.
Granted, it wasn't all bad. After allowing approximately all the sacks ever in 2023, the Giants desperately needed to bolster the offensive line, and the addition of tackle Jermaine Eluemunor and guard Jon Runyan should help that. Acquiring edge-rusher Brian Burns from the Carolina Panthers could give the G-Men a fearsome duo of pass-rushers combined with Kayvon Thibodeaux.
But in addition to losing the team's best offensive weapon in Barkley, the Giants also watched their best defensive back depart in safety Xavier McKinney. The Giants replaced Barkley by inking Devin Singletary to a three-year, $16.5 million pact. But Singletary isn't on the same level as Barkley as a talent—or even close.
Burns is a talented young pass-rusher. But he cost the Giants two draft picks (including a second-rounder) before signing a massive extension that averages a whopping $30 million per season. Given New York's other needs, that's a lot to pay a player who has one 10-sack season in five years.
The Giants also signed quarterback Drew Lock as insurance against Daniel Jones' ACL tear. But if Lock is anything more than that to a Giants team that is reportedly "done" with Jones, then it could be a long season in New York.
And at any rate, whoever New York's starting quarterback is has one of the weakest supporting casts (offensive line and skill-position weapons) in the NFL.
WINNER: Houston Texans
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The NFL never ceases to change. To evolve. To surprise.
Last year, the Houston Texans surprised plenty by winning the AFC South. Surprised even more by annihilating the Cleveland Browns in the playoffs. And in news that really shouldn't be a surprise, Houston is going hard at carrying that momentum over into 2024.
For as electric as Houston's offense was in 2023, the defense was—average. And when edge-rusher Jonathan Greenard departed for Minnesota Monday, there was a sizable hole left. But on Tuesday the Texans patched that hole and then some—by signing the guy that Greenard was inked to replace this season.
Signing Danielle Hunter wasn't cheap--$49 million over the next two years. But the Texans have the advantage of a quarterback on his rookie contract, and Hunter has double-digit sacks in four of the past five seasons—including a career-best 16.5 a year ago.
That wasn't the only defensive signing. Denico Autry is one of the more underrated interior linemen in the league. Azeez Al-Shaair is an ascending young linebacker who surpassed 160 tackles last season.
The offense wasn't ignored, either. In 2023, the Texans fielded the 23rd-ranked rushing offense—so when the Zack Moss signing in Cincinnati made Joe Mixon expendable, the Texans swooped in and grabbed a running back who has rushed for 1,000 yards four times, including a year ago.
Somewhere, C.J. Stroud is smiling—because the Texans are pushing their chips into the center of the table.
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