The 2024 Best-Case Scenarios for Every MLB Team
With spring training now well underway and all of the overreactions that come in response to those exhibition games, we've put together best-case scenarios for every Major League Baseball team in 2024.
Go ahead and make your "the best-case scenario for every team is winning the World Series, wow, I should write for B/R" jokes, but our goal here is realistic best-case scenarios.
And just so it's not a whole bunch of repetitive blathering about division races, we're doing both a player-specific best-case scenario and a team-wide best-case scenario. (In most cases, whether the former transpires will determine whether the latter can, too.)
Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
Over/under win totals for 2024 are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 30
2023 Season: 84-78, NL Wild Card
2024 Over/Under: 83.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Brandon Pfaadt builds on his impressive October
A highly touted prospect heading into the 2023 campaign, Pfaadt got the call a couple of weeks after Madison Bumgarner got the boot. But he struggled, posting a 5.72 ERA during the regular season before delivering on his potential in the postseason. And if October Pfaadt shows up for April-September, Arizona is going to be a problem.
Team-Oriented: Run it back again, and win it this time
The betting odds don't reflect this, but doesn't it feel like Arizona has a better chance of winning the World Series than it has of winning the NL West? The Dodgers are likely going to be a season-long juggernaut. But the Diamondbacks should at least be worthy of another wild-card spot, at which point anything can happen in a best-of-five or best-of-seven series.
Atlanta Braves
2 of 30
2023 Season: 104-58, NL East Champ
2024 Over/Under: 101.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Early 2023 Jarred Kelenic shows up
Kelenic's career numbers in three seasons with the Mariners left a lot to be desired. But for the first nearly two months of last season, it looked like he was finally ready to become a star. In his first 45 games, he hit .297/.350/.564 and was on pace for 36 home runs, 90 RBI and 22 stolen bases. He ended up nowhere close to those marks, but maybe he can get there in Atlanta, where seemingly everyone hit 30 home runs in 2023.
Team-Oriented: Get home-field advantage, topple the Dodgers in the NLCS and win another World Series
For the Dodgers, anything short of winning the World Series is going to be a disappointment. But while Atlanta's level of desperation isn't that high, its ceiling certainly is. If the Braves are able to stay reasonably healthy—there's not much depth in that lineup, nor much in the farm system to call up if things go awry—they should win the NL East for a seventh consecutive year and could win their second World Series in four years.
Baltimore Orioles
3 of 30
2023 Season: 101-61, AL East Champ
2024 Over/Under: 90.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Jackson Holliday unanimously wins AL Rookie of the Year
After hitting .323 in 125 minor league games last season, the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft has picked up right where he left off, racking up extra-base hits left and right thus far in spring training. Barring injury or just a disastrous run through the next few weeks, he simply has to be on the Opening Day roster and the overwhelming favorite to win AL ROY. And an upgrade from Jorge Mateo's .607 OPS to something more in the .900 range from Holliday would be massive for the O's.
Team-Oriented: Get the AL's No. 1 seed again, but do something with it this time
Baltimore kind of came out of nowhere to lead the AL in wins in 2023, and that O/U suggests an expectation that the Orioles will fade back to the pack to a somewhat significant degree. But you sure 'bout that? After they added Corbin Burnes and will be adding Holliday to the mix? Without losing much of anything? You sure 'bout that? Baltimore could be even better than last year and will be better equipped for postseason success with Burnes in tow.
Boston Red Sox
4 of 30
2023 Season: 78-84
2024 Over/Under: 77.5 Wins
Player-Specific: A healthy Trevor Story reharnesses his 2018-20 levels of greatness
The first two seasons of Story's six-year, $140 million deal have been...well, about as good as Javier Báez's have been in Detroit. But he started to show signs of life late last season after coming back from the UCL injury, and maybe this is a case where the third year's the charm. If he has a big year while Triston Casas builds on his 2023 breakout and Rafael Devers continues to do his thing, Boston should at least be able to score at a high level.
Team-Oriented: Win back a frustrated fanbase and crash the playoffs as a wild card
Things were supposed to be different in Beantown after they parted ways with Chaim Bloom and replaced him with Craig Breslow, but thus far it has just been a different C.B. who is out of touch with the fans and doesn't seem to know what the team needs. Winning fixes everything, though, and the Red Sox faithful would rally behind a playoff team—if this pitching staff can possibly get them to October.
Chicago Cubs
5 of 30
2023 Season: 83-79
2024 Over/Under: 84.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Pete Crow-Armstrong and Shota Imanaga battle each other for NL ROY
LAD's Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the clear preseason favorite for NL Rookie of the Year, but the Cubs do have a couple of strong candidates if it doesn't go to the guy who signed a $325 million contract before throwing a pitch in the majors. Crow-Armstrong had a bitter cup of coffee in the bigs last spring, going hitless in 19 plate appearances, but he could be a massive part of Chicago's outfield plans. And Imanaga will be crucial as the Cubs' plan for replacing Marcus Stroman.
Team-Oriented: Comfortably win the NL Central and pull off a few upsets in October
In early September, the Cubs were just 1.5 games back of Milwaukee and had a real shot at the NL's No. 3 seed. But they went an NL-worst 7-15 down the stretch, missing the postseason by a single game. With largely the same cast of characters, maybe the sour grapes from that rough finish will inspire a better, more complete run through the 2024 campaign.
Chicago White Sox
6 of 30
2023 Season: 61-101
2024 Over/Under: 63.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Eloy Jiménez plays well for four months, becoming a top commodity ahead of the trade deadline
We assume the rebuilding White Sox will be trading away Dylan Cease at some point. Perhaps Luis Robert Jr., too, if they're all-in on starting over and can get great value for the All-Star with four years of team control left on his contract. But Jiménez is the wild card who occasionally looks great and has team options for 2025 and 2026. If he has a strong first half, they should try to turn him into a legitimate prospect.
Team-Oriented: Get the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft lottery
For 90 percent of the teams, there's at least some tangible reason to have hope for the 2024 season. Maybe not World Series hope, but hope for at least a brighter tomorrow. That's not really the case for the White Sox, who would be best suited bottoming out, turning MLB talent into prospects and getting the best 2025 draft pick possible.
Cincinnati Reds
7 of 30
2023 Season: 82-80
2024 Over/Under: 82.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Good Frankie Montas comes back
From the beginning of 2019 through the 2022 trade deadline, Montas made 78 starts with Oakland, posting a 3.43 ERA and 9.8 K/9. The Yankees gave up some serious prospects to get a year-and-a-half of his services, but he struggled for the final two months of 2022 and missed almost the entire 2023 season. Cincinnati was able to scoop him up for relatively cheap and could be in great shape to win the NL Central if he pitches like he did with the A's.
Team-Oriented: Young bats mash their way to Cincinnati's first NL Central title since 2012
The Reds had 11 players hit at least 11 home runs last season, but none had more than Spencer Steer's 23. It felt like there was more star power than that in the lineup, didn't it? But between most of the young bats only playing about half the season and Elly De La Cruz not fully tapping into his potential at the dish, there's a surprising amount of room for improvement for a team that was already way better than expected in 2023.
Cleveland Guardians
8 of 30
2023 Season: 76-86
2024 Over/Under: 78.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Brayan Rocchio thrives as the everyday shortstop
Amed Rosario wasn't the singular reason that Cleveland sputtered to a sub-.500 record last year, but getting next to nothing out of the shortstop spot while also trying to overcome an outfield made up entirely of light hitters was more than the Guardians lineup could bear. But if Rocchio—who had 47 home runs, 96 stolen bases and a .774 OPS in his minor league career—can hit the ground running as a regular in the lineup, that could be a game-changer.
Team-Oriented: Steal a winnable AL Central
Winning the World Series doesn't seem feasible for Cleveland. But winning this division is absolutely on the table. Detroit and Kansas City should be better than last season, but it's not like either one is destined for 90 wins. Nor is there any good reason to expect Minnesota will exceed its 87 wins from last season. Really might be a case where 84 wins is enough for the AL Central title, and Cleveland could get there.
Colorado Rockies
9 of 30
2023 Season: 59-103
2024 Over/Under: 60.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Moving to first base fixes Kris Bryant
The Rockies have several intriguing young position players in Nolan Jones, Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar, but the journey to legitimately threatening to make the playoffs again begins with getting Bryant back to playing at an All-Star level. Because what they have right now is a $182 million sunk cost on par with what Miguel Cabrera had been for the constantly sub-.500 Tigers over the past seven years. But maybe transitioning from outfield to first base sparks something in Bryant's bat and keeps him healthier.
Team-Oriented: At least be entertaining
A lot of basement-dwelling teams don't even seem to enjoy getting paid to play the game of baseball, but some are entertaining even through all the losses. And between having several Gold Glove-caliber defenders and a few legitimate sluggers, Colorado could be one of those lovable losers, routinely playing in high-scoring affairs en route to what it hopes will be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft.
Detroit Tigers
10 of 30
2023 Season: 78-84
2024 Over/Under: 80.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Casey Mize shines on the mound
Colt Keith and Parker Meadows thriving as rookies would be great, and Javier Báez doing anything positive in exchange for his $25M salary would be swell. But the catalyst for Detroit emerging as a contender could be Casey Mize. The Tigers already have Tarik Skubal as their ace and added Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda to the rotation this offseason, but can they get anything good out of the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft who missed all of last season and almost all of 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery? If he pitches reasonably well, they should have a strong rotation.
Team-Oriented: Finally post another winning season, maybe win the AL Central
Since the beginning of 2017, only the Kansas City Royals (418) have won fewer games than Detroit's 419. But they legitimately have something percolating for the first time in a long time. The Tigers brought in A.J. Hinch as manager three years ago in hopes he could do for them what he did for the Astros. (Preferably without the cheating scandal.) Maybe this is the year they turn the corner.
Houston Astros
11 of 30
2023 Season: 90-72, AL West Champ
2024 Over/Under: 92.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Cristian Javier rebounds
From 2020 to '22, Javier had a 3.05 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 in 304.1 innings of work. He was even better in October, posting a 2.20 ERA and a 13.2 K/9 in those 32.2 innings on the mound. But he had a rough run through the final three-plus months of last season, and it's kind of a miracle Houston was able to chase down Texas to win the division while he struggled. But with Justin Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia all out to start the season, the Astros pretty well need Javier back to normal this spring.
Team-Oriented: Win a third World Series and embrace the dynasty debate
Winning three titles in the span of eight years hardly compares to some of the runs the New York Yankees have had over the past century. But an eighth consecutive trip to the ALCS followed by a third World Series banner sure would make it easier to make the case that this has been a dynastic run by Houston. And as the slight betting favorite to win the AL, the Astros do have the goods to make it happen.
Kansas City Royals
12 of 30
2023 Season: 56-106
2024 Over/Under: 73.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Cole Ragans continues to thrive
There's no such thing as a "second half Cy Young," but Ragans might have won the 2023 AL version of it if it did exist. He was awesome after relocating to KC in the Aroldis Chapman trade, making 12 starts with a 2.64 ERA and 11.2 K/9, becoming the ace of the Royals staff in what felt like a heartbeat. Can he rekindle that flame as the presumed Opening Day starter?
Team-Oriented: Exceed the already lofty expectations
Most teams have an over/under very close to their 2023 win total, but three are expected to win at least seven more games in 2024: the Yankees (+11.5), who added Juan Soto after an atypically disastrous season; the Cardinals (+13.5), who added Sonny Gray after an atypically horrendous year; and the Royals (+17.5), who added a ton this offseason to hopefully improve from awful to respectable. Improving by 25 wins to a .500 record might be asking too much, but it's plausible.
Los Angeles Angels
13 of 30
2023 Season: 73-89
2024 Over/Under: 72.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Anthony Rendon plays a full season and doesn't complain about how long it is
The Angels third baseman has come under a lot of scrutiny for his words and actions over the past year or so, but there's a reason he got that $245 million contract in the first place. If he can overcome the past three years of injury-plagued, replacement-level production and get back to the MVP-caliber baseball that he was playing from 2017 to '20, that would at least help the Halos adjust to life after Shohei Ohtani.
Team-Oriented: Angels "Ewing Theory" their way to an unlikely wild-card spot
There is no rational reason the Angels should be a contender after losing Ohtani and seemingly devoting their entire offseason to signing relief pitchers and only relief pitchers. This starting rotation is probably bottom five in the majors, and the DH spot has gone from the one clear strength of this team to a huge question mark. But maybe getting out from under Ohtani-mania sparks a little "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" sort of year in L.A.
Los Angeles Dodgers
14 of 30
2023 Season: 100-62, NL West Champ
2024 Over/Under: 103.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Yoshinobu Yamamoto dominates MLB like he dominated NPB
He isn't going to replicate that 1.72 ERA built up over the past seven seasons in Japan, but the Dodgers' $325 million man would be the ace of the pitching staff and the runaway winner of NL ROY (and possibly NL Cy Young) if his stuff even remotely translates to baseball in North America. And after just two spring training starts, it looks like it will.
Team-Oriented: Beat the MLB record for total wins in a year
As far as regular-season wins go, the all-time record is a tie between the 2001 Seattle Mariners and the 1906 Chicago Cubs at 116. But if you factor in the postseason, it's the 1998 New York Yankees, who won 114 regular-season games followed by 11 more in the postseason to finish at 125. And with everything the Dodgers added to their arsenal this offseason, that is breakable.
Miami Marlins
15 of 30
2023 Season: 84-78, NL Wild Card
2024 Over/Under: 78.5 Wins
Player-Specific: A.J. Puk thrives as a starter
Seth Lugo was successful in making the transition from reliever to starter for San Diego last season, and now Miami's former closer is hoping to do the same. Puk has never started a regular-season game in the majors but has allowed just one hit in 5.0 innings of his two starts so far this spring. If he can get stretched out and become a legitimate contributor to the rotation, it either helps Miami contend or it makes it easier to trade away a Jesús Luzardo or an Edward Cabrera.
Team-Oriented: Beat the odds again and make it back to October as a wild card
Without Sandy Alcantara (Tommy John) and with limited pop in the lineup, the expectation is that Miami will regress from last year's surprising postseason appearance. But the Marlins still have quite a bit of quality pitching. And maybe Tim Anderson snaps out of last year's funk and joins Luis Arraez in the race for the NL batting crown.
Milwaukee Brewers
16 of 30
2023 Season: 92-70, NL Central Champ
2024 Over/Under: 77.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Rhys Hoskins looks no worse for wear
Hoskins missed all of last season after suffering a torn ACL late in spring training. But here's a fun fact: In basically the same number of plate appearances, Hoskins (2,877 PA) has a slightly better OPS (.846) than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.844 in 2,843 PA). If he can get back to what he used to be, it raises both Milwaukee's 2024 ceiling and his trade value.
Team-Oriented: Keep the status quo by winning the division again
No team is expected to drop off a cliff more so than the Brewers, going straight from winning the NL Central to projected to finish in fourth place. If Hoskins plays well and if Jackson Chourio shines as a rookie, they should at least have the offense to contend. But there's more than understandable skepticism about the rotation sans Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff. We'll see if the likes of Colin Rea and Robert Gasser can hold down the fort.
Minnesota Twins
17 of 30
2023 Season: 87-75, AL Central Champ
2024 Over/Under: 86.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Royce Lewis plays 150 games
Even in a best-case scenario article, let's not get too out of hand by putting the goal at 162 games. But Lewis having a full, healthy season for the Twins would be huge. The 2017 No. 1 overall pick has a career triple-slash line of .307/.364/.549, but in just 70 games played. He was the catalyst of their Wild Card Series sweep of Toronto last year and could propel them to another AL Central crown.
Team-Oriented: Run it back again as AL Central champs...and win the ALCS
The Twins lost Sonny Gray. And Jorge Polanco. And Michael A. Taylor. And Donovan Solano. And Joey Gallo. And Kenta Maeda. And Tyler Mahle. And Emilio Pagan. And they didn't add much to replace them. (Though trading for Manuel Margot in late February may have been a clutch move.) Nevertheless, Minnesota remains the clear front-runner in this division and has finally gotten the "can't win in October" monkey off its back.
New York Mets
18 of 30
2023 Season: 75-87
2024 Over/Under: 81.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Luis Severino rebounds
From 2017 to '22, Severino made 89 appearances (85 starts) with a 3.10 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. He hadn't been particularly healthy since 2018, but he was at least effective when he did pitch. Until last season, when he couldn't get anyone out and posted a 6.65 ERA. But he just turned 30 a couple weeks ago and might be able to bounce back in his new New York home.
Team-Oriented: With drastically lower expectations, the Mets snare a wild-card spot
2023 was a complete disaster for the Metropolitans, but they've still got dudes. If Kodai Senga's shoulder strain doesn't shelve him for too long, the rotation could be solid. Edwin Diaz is back to own the ninth inning. The trio of Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo is one heck of a lineup core, plus they could get a bounce-back year from Starling Marte. There has been a lot of speculation that Alonso could be traded before he hits free agency, but don't sleep on this team possibly becoming buyers at the deadline.
New York Yankees
19 of 30
2023 Season: 82-80
2024 Over/Under: 93.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Juan Soto changes everything for this woebegone offense
There were 22 Yankees who had at least 40 plate appearances in 2023, and the only ones to do so with an OPS+ of 100 or better were Aaron Judge (175) and Gleyber Torres (118). Outside of that duo, they just looked broken across the board. But the infusion of Soto (career OPS+ of 157) could be just what the doctor ordered. His on-base percentage alone should spark better offense.
Team-Oriented: The World Series drought comes to an end
There have been 14 consecutive World Series played without the New York Yankees, which is the longest such streak in more than a century. (They went from 1982 to '95 without winning an ALCS, but remove the strike-truncated 1994 season and that's only 13 years.) Even more so than the Dodgers, this feels like a "World Series or Bust" campaign for the Bronx Bombers. And if the pitching beyond Gerrit Cole is better this season, they can (and probably should) get there.
Oakland Athletics
20 of 30
2023 Season: 50-112
2024 Over/Under: 56.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Zack Gelof builds on a strong second half
If you justifiably paid absolutely no mind to the A's after the All-Star break last season, you missed Gelof making quite the first impression. In 69 games, he posted an .840 OPS with a 162-game pace of 33 home runs and 33 stolen bases. Our Joel Reuter had Gelof at No. 16 in his second baseman rankings earlier this week, which is a whole lot better than any other Athletic is going to fare in that series.
Team-Oriented: A few building blocks rise from the ashes
The A's aren't going to make the playoffs, and the move from Oakland to Las Vegas may well become official in the next few months. Could be a long, depressing season in the Bay Area. But maybe they'll at least have a few shooting stars (in addition to Gelof) who emerge as the keys to getting this franchise back to the postseason before too much longer.
Philadelphia Phillies
21 of 30
2023 Season: 90-72, NL Wild Card
2024 Over/Under: 90.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Cristopher Sánchez locks down a starting gig
The big four in Philadelphia's starting rotation—Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suárez—is about as good as it gets this season. But that fifth spot is more of a wild card. Sánchez pitched well in that role last year, though, logging 99.1 innings with a 3.44 ERA. If he can do more of the same in 2024 while making closer to 30 starts, the Phillies might be able to chase down Atlanta and win the NL East.
Team-Oriented: A third consecutive year making it at least to the NLCS
Winning the division would be swell, but the Phillies have shown over the past two years that it doesn't matter. As long as you make the postseason and save some of your best stuff for October, you've got more than a puncher's chance of winning it all. And they've got both the star power and the depth to outlast both the Braves and Dodgers for a third straight year.
Pittsburgh Pirates
22 of 30
2023 Season: 76-86
2024 Over/Under: 74.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Martín Pérez pitches like he did in 2022
Pittsburgh's lineup could be solid, especially if Oneil Cruz picks up where he left off before the leg injury. But what's holding this team back is the lack of reliable pitching beyond Mitch Keller. Maybe Pérez can be that guy, reverting back to the sub-3.00 ERA he posted two seasons ago. And if he does, maybe the Pirates also call up Paul Skenes to give the rotation a solid 1-2-3 punch.
Team-Oriented: A rare winning record in the Steel City
Asking this team to make the postseason is probably a bit much, but it could mess around and win 82 games, right? Bryan Reynolds and Ke'Bryan Hayes have legitimate star power, and the Pirates theoretically shouldn't blow many late leads with Aroldis Chapman and David Bednar anchoring the bullpen. The Pirates did start out 20-8 last season. Maybe they can harness that magic a good bit longer this year.
San Diego Padres
23 of 30
2023 Season: 82-80
2024 Over/Under: 81.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Jake Cronenworth rallies
An All-Star in both 2021 and 2022, Cronenworth really struggled last season. He was starting to come around in the second half as San Diego tried to battle back and make the playoffs, but he suffered a broken wrist in late August. If the primary first baseman can get back on track, San Diego's chances of making the playoffs improve considerably.
Team-Oriented: A lean, mean, winning machine crashes the playoffs
The Padres are on track for an Opening Day payroll more than $110 million below where they finished last season. But there's still some serious potential here. The big four of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Ha-Seong Kim is easily one of the five best positional nuclei in the majors. And the tandem of Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove atop the rotation ought to be solid. But will the pitchers they got in exchange for Juan Soto hold their own? And is Jackson Merrill going to be the answer in left?
San Francisco Giants
24 of 30
2023 Season: 79-83
2024 Over/Under: 81.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Jordan Hicks thrives as a starter
We previously mentioned A.J. Puk's attempt to convert from a closer to a starter in Miami, and Hicks is doing the same for the Giants. If he's able to consistently give them 5-6 solid innings, awesome. They could finish second in the NL West and secure a wild-card spot. But if he struggles, things could go sideways for a team that has given multiple spring training starts to each of Spencer Howard (7.20 career ERA in 115 IP), Kyle Harrison (seven career starts) and Mason Black (zero MLB appearances).
Team-Oriented: The new bats slug the Giants to the postseason
The Hicks X-factor will be interesting to monitor, but what the Giants really need is better hitting after outscoring only Miami in the NL last season. So they brought in Jung Hoo Lee. And Jorge Soler. And Matt Chapman. And now perhaps for the first time since Barry Bonds did it in 2004, they'll actually have a 30-homer bat to lead the offense.
Seattle Mariners
25 of 30
2023 Season: 88-74
2024 Over/Under: 87.5 Wins
Player-Specific: The Mitches avoid stitches
Mitch Haniger has a career .796 OPS with 162-game averages of 31 HR and 91 RBI, with two of his best years (2018 and 2021) coming with the Mariners. Mitch Garver's marks are .825, 30 and 82, respectively. But will either of Seattle's offseason acquisitions be consistently available, considering they've both dealt with more than their fair share of injury woes? If so, that would mean considerably fewer holes in the lineup than the M's had last year.
Team-Oriented: AL West champs for the first time since 2001
Seattle came painfully close to winning the division last year, winning at least 88 games for the third consecutive year. All the Mariners have to show for it, however, is one wild-card berth. But if they come out hot in April with both Houston and Texas likely to be "late arrivers" given all of their pitching injuries, maybe the M's build up a nice early lead and win a division they haven't won in more than two decades. And from there, maybe they win it all.
St. Louis Cardinals
26 of 30
2023 Season: 71-91
2024 Over/Under: 84.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Matthew Liberatore finally arrives
A first-round pick in the 2018 draft and a top-80 overall prospect every year from 2019 to '23 in the eyes of Baseball America, Liberatore has yet to deliver on all of that potential, posting a 5.51 ERA in nearly 100 innings of work in the big leagues. But if he can take a big step forward in year No. 3 as the fifth arm behind Miles Mikolas, Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, St. Louis' pitching woes from last year could feel like ancient history.
Team-Oriented: After one year in the basement, the Cardinals storm back to win a wide-open NL Central
Even when they don't make the postseason, the Cardinals are almost always at least a factor, posting a winning record in 22 out of 23 seasons from 2000 to '22. This is why it was really weird that they were just dead last year. But they've done what they hope is enough to address their poor pitching and should be in good shape on offense, particularly if rookie shortstop Masyn Winn has a good year.
Tampa Bay Rays
27 of 30
2023 Season: 99-63, AL Wild Card
2024 Over/Under: 84.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Tampa Bay wins the Tyler Glasnow trade
Between Triple-A OKC and his time in the majors with the Dodgers, Ryan Pepiot logged 192.1 IP with a 2.81 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and a 10.3 K/9 over the past two seasons combined. Meanwhile, Jonny DeLuca had a career .884 OPS in the minors before getting a cup of coffee in the majors last year. But the way people talked about the Glasnow trade, you'd think the Rays got absolutely fleeced. Both could be key cogs for an October-bound squad.
Team-Oriented: Exceed expectations, as always, and make a better showing this October
Pretty wild going straight from the Cardinals to the Rays, both of whom have an O/U of 84.5, despite Tampa Bay winning 28 more games in 2023. You'd think we would eventually learn not to underestimate this small-market force of nature that seems to find two new stars out of nowhere on an annual basis, but here we go again. Based on O/Us, Tampa Bay is supposed to finish eighth in the AL standings. Try not to be surprised when they land in fourth or better again.
Texas Rangers
28 of 30
2023 Season: 90-72, AL Wild Card
2024 Over/Under: 89.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Wyatt Langford takes MLB by storm
After what Evan Carter did for the Rangers last October, he is the top non-Jackson Holliday candidate to win AL Rookie of the Year. But Wyatt Langford—who has three home runs in 20 ABs already this spring and was already one of the top prospects in baseball—isn't far behind Carter. Where he fits into the overcrowded OF/DH situation is unclear, but it's an enviable dilemma for the Rangers to have.
Team-Oriented: First repeat World Series champion since 1998-2000 New York Yankees
Pretty obvious best-case scenario here, right? Sometimes the champ loses so much in the offseason that a repeat run doesn't even feel plausible, but that's not the case here. The Rangers could be even better than last year if Langford is a shooting star and if the acquisitions of Kirby Yates and David Robertson help improve a bullpen that struggled for most of the 2023 regular season.
Toronto Blue Jays
29 of 30
2023 Season: 89-73, AL Wild Card
2024 Over/Under: 86.5 Wins
Player-Specific: Alek Manoah figures things out
Early returns on this front aren't great, as Manoah gave up four earned runs in 1.2 IP in his first appearance of spring training. But whether he pitches like he did in 2022 (2.24 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, third-place vote-getter for AL Cy Young) or like he did in 2023 (5.87 ERA, 6.1 BB/9) just might be the biggest X-factor in all of baseball in 2024.
Team-Oriented: The offense picks up the slack and finally wins a postseason series
Manoah's 2023 shortcomings were noteworthy for sure, but the overall state of Toronto's pitching staff wasn't much different in 2023 than it had been the previous two years. The offense, however, was a far cry from what it used to be, scoring 100 fewer runs last year than in 2021. Can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. get back to battling for a home run crown? Can Bo Bichette stay healthy and lead the league in hits again? Does Justin Turner have one more good year left in the tank? Those answers may determine whether Toronto wins the AL East or finishes dead last in it.
Washington Nationals
30 of 30
2023 Season: 71-91
2024 Over/Under: 66.5 Wins
Player-Specific: James Wood wins NL ROY
Two weeks ago, I would have been imploring the Nationals to think about their long-term future by keeping Wood down in the minors for one more year, thus having one more season of his services before he hits free agency around 2030. But he has been so good in spring training that they might as well think about at least making the current season fun to watch by letting him chase a Rookie of the Year award. FWIW, Dylan Crews and Robert Hassell III are also playing well, so the Nats could just head into 2024 with a brand-new outfield if they want.
Team-Oriented: Make the most of the final "down year" before trying to contend again next year
Maybe Washington starts out hot and makes a run at a wild-card spot, but that's unlikely. The best use of 2024 would be trading expiring assets for prospects and figuring out who's part of the future—which includes hopefully getting Cade Cavalli back onto the mound before the end of the year.
.jpg?w=600 "Report: Lawrence Wants Out of NY")
.png?w=600 "Trae Responds to NYC Mayor 🤫")
.jpg?w=600 "Browns GM Speaks on Trade Buzz")
