AJ Dillon, Keisean Nixon, Packers Free Agents' Projected Contracts
The Green Bay Packers were almost a complete non-factor in free agency last season. Outside of a few safeties, they made almost no notable external free agent signings in the first wave of free agency.
This year, things could be different. General manager Brian Gutekunst talked about being active in the market at the NFL combine and they don't have a great class of in-house free agents that are going to command a lot of money.
The Packers are generally a franchise that looks to take care of their own before handing money to players they didn't draft.
This year, there aren't many essential signings with expiring contracts. Here, we'll take a look at the top players who are set to hit the open market and project what kind of contract they could be in line for this offseason based on previous market.
RB AJ Dillon
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When the Packers drafted AJ Dillon with the 62nd overall selection in the 2020 draft, it was a fair assumption that he was being primed to take over as the lead back eventually. A second-round investment is serious draft capital at the running back position.
However, Dillon has now reached the conclusion of his rookie contract and Aaron Jones is still firmly affixed as the lead back. The 25-year-old has never been able to take over as the top back on the roster and had a 49.8 percent opportunity share last season.
Meanwhile, Jones averaged a full yard per touch more last season and outgained his counterpart despite playing in four fewer games.
It doesn't seem likely that the Packers would bring Dillon back. They can find a secondary back who is younger and less costly through the draft.
At the same time, Dillon's market could be scarce this offseason. He's not a bad back and there is certainly some potential for him to be a team's primary short-yardage and goal-line back at 6'0", 247 pounds.
However, this year's running back class is stacked with names like Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley potentially looking for new homes.
It will probably be mutually beneficial for Dillon to find a one-year "prove-it" deal with a club who might be willing to shell out for a multi-year extension after the season.
Projected Contract: One year, $4 million. $3 million guaranteed.
CB Keisean Nixon
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Keisean Nixon's worth is probably not understood among the rest of the league's fanbases, but he might be the most important for the Packers to retain this offseason.
He was an All-Pro return man and has grown into a role as a fine slot corner. He went from playing 28 percent of the defensive snaps in 2022 to 73 percent of the snaps in 2023.
However, his biggest contributions remain on special teams. He has led the league in kick return yardage in each of the last two seasons, taking one 105 yards to the house in 2022.
In general, the Packers have not been great on special teams. They were 31st in the league in special teams DVOA last season. At least Nixon gives them a kick returner who can set the offense up with an advantageous field position from time to time.
Figuring out Nixon's next contract will be interesting. He's projected to earn a one-year, $1.7 million contract, but the comparables Spotrac uses to project that are all just cornerbacks without Nixon's kick returning credentials.
Instead, Nixon might get something between those contracts and the ones that Cordarrelle Patterson earned before he had success as a running back for the Falcons.
Those were more in the range of $3-5 million a year. Given Nixon's improved defense and his ability to return kicks, the Packers might have to dig a little deeper into the cash reserves to bring him back.
Projected Contract: Two years, $7 million. $5 million guaranteed.
OG Jon Runyan Jr.
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Good offensive line help can be hard to find. That's why the going rate for a starting-quality offensive linemen usually involves some sticker shock.
Looking at last year's free agent class, there were some relatively average starters who saw good paydays. Ben Powers led the way with a contract worth $12.9 million in annual average value, but players like Nick Gates also earned a three-year, $16.5 million deal.
So while Jon Runyan Jr. isn't going to the Pro Bowl anytime soon, he could be surprisingly well-compensated next season. Runyan earned a 54.7 grade from PFF last season but he only gave up two sacks on 928 snaps.
Unfortunately for Runyan, it isn't looking like whatever contract he gets in free agency is coming from Green Bay. He started splitting reps with second-year player Sean Rhyan about halfway through the season and ceded more and more snaps to him as the year went on.
Rob Demovsky of ESPN reported that the Packers, "liked Runyan's performance on the field and the way he handled the rotation at his position without complaints, they prefer having a less expensive option at right guard."
Rhyan has two years left on his contract and will cost them cap hits of $1.1 and $1.4 million over the next two seasons.
Runyan is likely to get a considerable amount more than that in free agency. Even if he only get a one-year deal like the ones that Nick Allegretti and Matt Feiler signed last offseason, it would put him at more than double that amount.
Projected Contract: One year, $3.5 million. $3 million guaranteed.
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