Early Predictions for the Champions of Every 2024 CBB Conference Tournament
With the calendar set to flip to March and just a handful of regular-season games left across the college basketball landscape, conference tournament time is right around the corner.
Once again, the NCAA tournament's 68-team field is made up of 32 automatic bids and 36 at-large selections, and those first 32 slots will be decided by the winners of each conference tournament.
The Atlantic Sun will be the first conference tournament to tip off on March 4, kicking off two weeks of action across college basketball that concludes during the day on Selection Sunday when the AAC, A-10, Big Ten, Ivy League and SEC will all play their title games in the afternoon.
There is still a lot to be decided in the coming days, but for now, here's an early look at predictions for each conference tournament champion heading into March.
Mid-Majors, Part I
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America East: Vermont Catamounts (23-6, 13-1 in AEC)
The Catamounts have reached the NCAA tournament four times in the past seven years, including as a No. 15 seed in 2023. They have once again been the class of the AEC, with only one loss in conference play and a five-game winning streak heading into the final two games of the regular season. They rank No. 66 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency and allow just 62.9 points per game.
Atlantic 10: Dayton Flyers (21-5, 12-3 in A-10)
After 16 consecutive NCAA tournaments as a multi-bid league, the A-10 is shaping up to have just one team make the field for the second year in a row. The Flyers are relevant on a national level, projected for a No. 5 seed in the most recent Bracket Matrix, but they have also picked up a pair of Quad 2 losses in February. Their biggest competition will be Richmond and Loyola-Chicago.
Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb Bisons (19-11, 10-5 in A-Sun)
Eastern Kentucky (12-3) and Stetson (11-4) currently sit ahead of Lipscomb in the Atlantic Sun standings, but the Bison have the conference's highest NET rating (No. 160) on the strength of a high-powered offense that ranks 67th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency. They are 17-1 when they score at least 80 points and have six players averaging at least eight points per game.
Big Sky: Eastern Washington Eagles (18-10, 12-3 in Big Sky)
The Eagles won the regular season title in the Big Sky last season, but a loss to Northern Arizona in the opener of their conference tournament forced them to settle for an NIT appearance. This year's top four scorers were all part of last year's squad, so they will be hungry to avoid another letdown as the likely No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.
Big South: High Point Panthers (23-6, 12-2 in Big South)
The Panthers won 12 in a row earlier this season, so they are capable of getting hot and going on a roll. They rank No. 29 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency and lead the nation with 20.6 made free throws per game, and while their defense doesn't stack up by comparison, they are capable of scoring their way to the first NCAA tournament appearance in school history.
Big West: UC Irvine Anteaters (20-8, 13-3 in Big West)
The Anteaters have split the season series with UC San Diego, and those two teams currently sit tied atop the Big West standings with a 13-3 record. However, the Tritons are not yet eligible for the NCAA tournament in just their fourth year at the D-I level, so the Anteaters might just need to make it to the conference tournament title game to clinch their bid.
Coastal: UNC Wilmington Seahawks (20-8, 11-5 in CAA)
The College of Charleston finished 31-4 and climbed as high as No. 18 in the AP poll last year en route to a No. 12 seed in the NCAA tournament, and with several players back from that team, they are the favorites in the CAA once again. However, the Seahawks won both regular-season matchups with the Cougars, and they also have a Quad 1 victory over Kentucky on their resume from non-conference play.
Conference USA: Sam Houston Bearkats (17-11, 10-3 in CUSA)
Next Thursday's game between Sam Houston and Louisiana Tech will go a long way in determining who the favorite will be heading in the Conference USA tournament. The Bearkats won 81-77 the first time the two teams met this year, but that was back on Jan. 6 to kick off conference play. For now, the Bearkats get the slight edge.
Mid-Majors, Part II
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Horizon: Youngstown State Penguins (22-9, 14-6 in Horizon)
After setting a school record with 24 wins last season and winning the regular season conference title, the Penguins are still searching for their first NCAA tournament appearance in 44 years at the D-I level. Oakland (NET: 131) is just a few spots behind them in the NET rankings and beat them in both regular-season matchups, but it's never easy to beat a team three times.
Ivy League: Princeton Tigers (21-3, 9-2 in Ivy)
The Ivy League has three teams in the top 100 in NET ranking in Princeton (No. 51), Yale (No. 84) and Cornell (No. 93), so it should be a fun tournament. The Tigers are currently riding a six-game winning streak, including a 73-62 win over Yale on Feb. 17, but they still have a big matchup at home against Cornell on March 2. If they can maintain their current momentum heading into the conference tournament, they will be heavy favorites.
MAAC: Fairfield Stags (18-10, 12-5 in MAAC)
With a trio of high-scoring guards in Jalen Leach (16.4 PPG), Caleb Fields (16.0 PPG) and former 4-star recruit Brycen Goodine (13.5 PPG), the Stags have a solid offensive squad, and they rank 10th in the nation with a 38.3 percent clip from beyond the arc. There are five teams sitting between 10 and 12 wins in conference play in the MAAC, so it's crowded at the top.
MAC: Akron Zips (20-8, 12-3 in MAC)
Akron (NET: 99) and Toledo (NET: 142) are the two top dogs in the MAC this year, and both teams won their home game in the regular-season matchups. The Zips have a top-100 defense in KenPom's adjusted efficiency metric and allow just 65.3 points per game while limiting the opposition to 30.3 percent from beyond the arc.
MEAC: Norfolk State Spartans (19-9, 9-2 in MEAC)
The Spartans are 9-1 in their past 10 games and are rolling toward a third NCAA tournament appearance in the past four years. UNC Wilmington transfer Jamarii Thomas has stepped right in as the team's leading scorer, averaging 17.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 2.1 steals. North Carolina Central will be their toughest competition.
Missouri Valley: Drake Bulldogs (24-6, 15-4 in MVC)
There's an outside chance that the MVC will be a two-bid league this year with Indiana State (NET: 28) and Drake (NET: 50) both looked at favorably from a metrics standpoint. Both teams won at home in their two regular-season matchups, and anything but a third meeting in the title game would represent a huge upset for both teams. The Bulldogs have the MVC's best player in Tucker DeVries, who averages 21.7 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.6 assists.
Northeast: Merrimack Warriors (18-10, 12-2 in NEC)
The Warriors won the D-II national title in 2018 and 2019 before moving up to the D-I level, and they are now eligible for the NCAA tournament for the first time this year following the four-year waiting period after reclassification. With a nine-game winning streak heading into Thursday's game against Fairleigh Dickinson, momentum is on their side.
Ohio Valley: Little Rock Trojans (18-11, 12-4 in OVC)
There is currently a three-way tie atop the Ohio Valley standings with Morehead State (NET: 117), Tennessee-Martin (NET: 202) and Little Rock (NET: 216) all sitting at 12-4 in conference play. The last time the Trojans made the tournament was during the 2015-16 season when they finished 30-5 in Chris Beard's lone season before taking the Texas Tech job. They have won seven in a row, with home wins over both Morehead State and Tennessee-Martin during that time.
Mid-Majors, Part III
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Patriot: Colgate Raiders (21-9, 15-2 in Patriot)
The Raiders have made the NCAA tournament four times in the past five years, and they are the cream of the crop in the Patriot League once again. This year's team is built on defense and a grind-it-out tempo, allowing just 63.5 points per game while limiting the opposition to 40.8 percent shooting from the field.
Southern: Samford Bulldogs (25-5, 14-3 in Southern)
The last time Samford made the NCAA tournament was all the way back in 2000 as a member of Trans America Athletic Conference, which is now known as the Atlantic Sun. They have already secured their third straight 20-win season, and since season-opening losses to Purdue and VCU, they have gone 25-3 while scoring 80 or more points on 18 different occasions.
Southland: McNeese State Cowboys (25-3, 14-1 in Southland)
The Cowboys have been one of the best mid-majors teams in the country this year in their first season under former LSU coach Will Wade. TCU transfer Shahada Wells (17.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) has been a star running the offense, while the defense ranks fourth in the nation with 61.0 points allowed per game. They rank in the top 80 in KenPom's offensive efficiency (No. 79) and defensive efficiency (No. 67) as a well-rounded group.
SWAC: Grambling Tigers (14-13, 11-3 in SWAC)
The Tigers played a grueling non-conference schedule, facing Iowa State, Dayton, Washington State, Florida, Drake and Colorado, and they started the year 2-10 with their only victories coming against non-D-I opponents. That seemingly prepared them well for conference play, and a win on the road over Southern on Saturday cemented their status as the favorites in the SWAC.
Summit: South Dakota State Jackrabbits (17-12, 10-4 in Summit)
The Jackrabbits are no strangers to the NCAA tournament, having made the field six times in the past 12 years. They close out the regular season with road games against North Dakota (Feb. 29) and North Dakota State (March 2), and those two teams currently sit second and third in the conference standings, so their status as front-runners will be put to the test.
Sun Belt: Appalachian State Mountaineers (25-5, 15-2 in Sun Belt)
James Madison opened the season with a win over then-No. 4 Michigan State before spending eight weeks in the AP poll, and they still have an outside shot for an at-large bid if they don't win the Sun Belt tournament. The team standing in their way is Appalachian State, which won both regular-season matchups to give the Dukes two of their three conference losses. The Mountaineers are 14-1 in their past 15 games.
WAC: Grand Canyon Antelopes (24-4, 14-3 in WAC)
The Antelopes benefit greatly from the fact that Tarleton State—the second-best team in the conference—is not yet eligible for the NCAA tournament in their fourth season at the D-I level. That leaves a favorable path to a third tournament bid in the past four years for an Antelopes team that could also receive some at-large consideration thanks to a strong NET ranking (No. 57) and a nice Quad 1 win over San Diego State.
WCC: Saint Mary's Gaels (23-6, 14-0 in WCC)
The Gaels have not lost since Dec. 23 and are currently projected for a No. 6 seed in the latest Bracket Matrix. They won at Gonzaga earlier this month but still have to face their rival at home in the regular-season finale. The Zags might need the automatic bid to make the NCAA tournament field this year, so Saint Mary's will be looking to make sure its rival stays on the bubble.
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AAC: South Florida Bulls
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Record: 21-5, 14-1 in AAC
South Florida is one of the hottest teams in the country right now, riding a 13-game winning streak heading into Saturday's matchup on the road against Charlotte.
They beat then-No. 10 Memphis, then-No. 24 Florida Atlantic and a good SMU team during that stretch, and have gone from an afterthought to squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble.
With a relatively easy slate of games to close out the regular season in Charlotte, Tulane and Tulsa, the Bulls should be able to ride their current momentum wave into being the favorites in the AAC tournament.
ACC: North Carolina Tar Heels
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Record: 22-6, 14-3 in ACC
If North Carolina can win out, including the regular-season finale against Duke at Cameron Indoor on March 9, it should be in the mix for a No. 1 seed heading into the ACC tournament.
With RJ Davis coming off a 42-point explosion against Miami and Armando Bacot averaging 14.1 points and 10.5 rebounds as a double-double machine, the Tar Heels have two of the most reliable producers in the nation headlining their roster.
Don't sleep on a Clemson team that has won three straight and handed the Tar Heels their only home loss of the season on Feb. 6.
Big 12: Iowa State Cyclones
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Record: 22-6, 11-4 in Big 12
The Houston Cougars would be an easy choice here, but they might already have a No. 1 seed locked up heading into the Big 12 tournament, and they have already lost to Iowa State once this year.
The two teams match up extremely well, with defenses that rank first and second in KenPom's adjusted efficiency and offenses that are piloted by two of the best point guards in the nation in Jamal Shead and Tamin Lipsey.
After a 57-53 Iowa State victory on Jan. 9 and a 73-65 Houston win on Feb. 19, Round 3 of this heavyweight showdown would be a fitting way to cap off what has been a fantastic season in the Big 12. The Cyclones could be playing for a No. 2 seed, while the Cougars might already have their spot set in stone.
Big East: UConn Huskies
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Record: 25-3, 15-2 in Big East
The UConn Huskies lost a road game against Seton Hall to begin conference play on Dec. 20 and a road game against Creighton last Tuesday, but other than that, they have rolled through conference play.
The defending champs still have a tough test on the road against Marquette among their three remaining regular-season games, and it's that same Marquette squad that beat them in the Big East tournament a year ago.
However, this year's team has looked the part of a title contender all year, and they demolished the Golden Eagles by an 81-53 margin at home when they met for the first time earlier this month.
Big Ten: Purdue Boilermakers
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Record: 25-3, 14-3 in Big Ten
The Purdue Boilermakers won the Big Ten tournament last year on their way to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, only to get upset by Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round, adding to a run of March Madness disappointment.
Having an extremely efficient superstar to lean on like Zach Edey, who is averaging 23.7 points per game on 62.7 percent shooting, makes it difficult to bet against the Boilermakers running the table once again in the Big Ten.
That's especially true now that Illinois and Wisconsin have both taken a step backward relative to their early success, leaving Purdue in a tier of its own at the top of the conference.
Mountain West: Boise State Broncos
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Record: 20-8, 11-4 in MWC
In years past, the Mountain West has been lumped into the "mid-majors" category in this article, but with six teams looking like a safe bet to be part of the NCAA tournament field, it belongs in the major conference conversation this year.
San Diego State is widely regarded as the best team in the conference, but Boise State beat the Aztecs in their first meeting earlier this year, and the rematch will close out the regular-season slate on March 8.
This one is honestly a complete toss-up, and even a team like UNLV that has three straight wins, including one over a ranked Colorado State team, could crash the party and make the at-large decisions even harder for the selection committee.
Pac-12: Arizona Wildcats
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Record: 22-6, 13-4 in Pac-12
It's been a disappointing swan song for the Pac-12, with Arizona and Washington State as the only two teams that appear to be safely in the NCAA tournament field, while Colorado and Oregon sit precariously on the bubble.
Arizona lost both games to Washington State during the regular season, including a 77-74 defeat at home last Thursday, but the Cougars then promptly lost their next game to a bad Arizona State team on Saturday.
It's never easy to beat a team three times in one season, and that's especially true when talking about a Wildcats squad that is currently projected for a No. 1 seed with a well-rounded roster that ranks among the nation's leaders in offensive and defensive metrics.
SEC: Florida Gators
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Record: 20-8, 10-5 in SEC
The Florida Gators have been playing their best basketball of the season over the past few weeks, going 9-2 in their past 11 games with their only losses coming on the road against Texas A&M by one point and Alabama in overtime.
The Gators rank No. 15 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, and they rank second in the nation with 15.8 offensive rebounds per game, which has helped them hoist an NCAA-leading 66.4 shots per contest.
Tennessee and Alabama have been the best teams in the SEC all season, but don't sleep on a Gators squad that is getting hot at the right time and is capable of lighting up the scoreboard when everything is clicking.
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