How 5 Sleepers Can Still Win 2024 NBA MVP

The 2024 NBA race will be one of the most interesting we've had in years, as there's a number of players who could take home the honor with strong play over the final seven weeks of the season.

For this exercise, we're ignoring the three favorites right now (Nikola Jokić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Dončić) and focusing on the next wave of players behind them with far worse odds.

Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, Kawhi Leonard, Jayson Tatum and Giannis Antetokounmpo still have a chance to win MVP, although a lot will have to go right to increase their chances.

From increased stats to leading their teams up the standings and other X-factors, here's how these five sleepers can win the title of the league's most valuable player.

Note: MVP odds are via FanDuel.com.

Donovan Mitchell, G, Cleveland Cavaliers

David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images

CLEVELAND, OH - FEBRUARY 14: Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Cleveland Cavaliers is awarded with the NBA Eastern Conference Player of the Month for January on February 14, 2024 at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images)

Current MVP Odds: +19000, 8th overall

MVP Résumé:

• 28.4 points per game (5th in NBA)

• 1.9 steals per game (2nd in NBA)

• Cavs No. 2 in the East

• East Player of the Month in January

• Has carried Cleveland with Darius Garland and Evan Mobley missing 47 combined games, and he switched positions to point guard when Garland was out

Mitchell Can Win If:

Mitchell ranking just eighth overall in NBA odds is wild considering how much he's been asked to do and how well the Cavaliers have played this season.

Still, voters will need to see more.

Getting to an even 30 points per game may be necessary to really catch some eyeballs, which won't be easy to do now with Garland and Mobley back. The Cavaliers aren't going to catch the Boston Celtics for No. 1 in the East, but they'd almost certainly have to make Boston sweat a little bit while holding off the Milwaukee Bucks for No. 2.

Mitchell still carries the perception of being a bad defender from his last few seasons with the Utah Jazz, although he's been quite good on that end of the floor this year and gives excellent effort on a nightly basis. If he can pass Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for the league lead in steals (2.1), Mitchell should get some bonus points for his work on the defensive end as well.

Jalen Brunson, PG, New York Knicks

Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - FEBRUARY 22: Jalen Brunson #11 of the New York Knicks dribbles during the third quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers at the Wells Fargo Center on February 22, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

Current MVP Odds: +12000, 7th overall

MVP Résumé:

• 27.5 points per game (8th in NBA)

• 9.9 Estimated Wins Added (tied-6th in NBA)

• Knicks No. 4 in the East

• First Knicks All-Star point guard since Mark Jackson in 1988-89

• Has carried New York while Knicks have dealt with injuries to Julius Randle, OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson

Brunson Can Win If:

Brunson faces a double-edged sword in his quest for MVP.

If players like Randle (who hasn't ruled out season-ending surgery on his shoulder), Anunoby and Robinson continue to stay sidelined, Brunson's individual numbers will stay inflated. The 27-year-old point guard is averaging 31.6 points, 3.4 rebounds and 7.1 assists in 37.3 minutes over nine games since Randle was lost to a separated shoulder.

Of course, taking away this much talent has caused the Knicks to go just 5-5 over their last 10 games, putting them in just the middle of the East playoff picture.

If Brunson continues to average 30-plus points per game and carry the Knicks to wins without their starting frontcourt, his odds should increase dramatically. Brunson is an extremely likable player who's worked his way into becoming an All-Star. Playing in one of the biggest markets in the world doesn't hurt his case, either.

Brunson will likely have to jump into the top five in scoring (passing Donovan Mitchell and his 28.4 points per game) and have the Knicks climb to the No. 2 seed in the East to have any chance at MVP.

Kawhi Leonard, F, Los Angeles Clippers

Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images

WASHINGTON, DC -  JANUARY 31: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the LA Clippers handles the ball during the game on January 31, 2024 at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images)

Current MVP Odds: +8500, 6th overall

MVP Résumé:

• 24.0 points per game (22nd in NBA)

• 1.7 steals per game (4th in NBA)

• 45.0 percent from three (6th in NBA)

• Clippers No. 3 in the West

• Has missed just five games all season while leading Los Angeles in scoring and steals

Leonard Can Win If:

Leonard isn't putting up the eye-popping scoring numbers that we've seen from some of the other top MVP candidates, but he hasn't needed to for a Clippers team that just keeps winning.

The biggest knock on Leonard coming into the season was his lack of durability, something that hasn't been an issue this year. The 32-year-old has played big minutes (34.2 per game) and is on pace to suit up in 74 games, the most since his 2016-17 season with the San Antonio Spurs.

Leonard's efficiency should be commended as well, as his 45.0 percent mark from three and 89.2 percent from the free-throw line are the highest of any of the top eight MVP candidates.

For Leonard to win, he will likely need a notable increase from his 22nd spot on the scoring list, and the Clippers will have to win the West (currently 2.5 games behind the Minnesota Timberwolves).

Jayson Tatum, F, Boston Celtics

Erin Clark/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

Boston, MA - February 7: Boston Celtics SF Jayson Tatum reacts after hitting a shot in the second half. The Celtics beat the Atlanta Hawks, 125-117. (Photo by Erin Clark/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

Current MVP Odds: +3100, 5th overall

MVP Résumé:

• 27.1 points per game (10th in NBA)

• 9.9 Estimated Wins Added (tied-6th in NBA)

• 2024 East All-Star starter

• Celtics No. 1 in East/best record in NBA

• East Player of the Month in October/November

Tatum Can Win If:

Being the best player on the best team in basketball should probably be getting Tatum more MVP love, as he's been on a trajectory to win the award for years now.

The 25-year-old shouldn't be punished simply because his team is awesome, especially when he's still the clear alpha of the group. Tatum is also averaging a career-high 4.8 assists per game with the added talent around him and has bought into whatever Boston has asked him to do.

"I don't have the points per game that the other three or four guys will, but I think the voters are smart enough to understand the dynamic of our team," Tatum told The Athletic's Jared Weiss. "Essentially having to do less scoring maybe on certain nights but still impact the game in a lot of ways to kind of ensure that we win every single night."

Even in a lesser role, Tatum is still scoring at a high level, although an increase in overall efficiency would help his MVP case. Tatum's three-point accuracy (36.6 percent) is below his career average (37.4 percent) while his two-point success rate has essentially stayed the same as it was last season (55.9 percent compared to 55.8 percent).

We've seen Kawhi Leonard sacrifice scoring for efficiency, yet we haven't seen the same spike for Tatum yet.

Being the only team to cross the 60-win plateau should help Tatum's case (currently projected for 63.8 according to Basketball Reference), as would an increase in overall shooting efficiency.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, F, Milwaukee Bucks

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - FEBRUARY 12: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks dunks against the Denver Nuggets during the first half of a game at Fiserv Forum on February 12, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Current MVP Odds: +1200, 4th overall

MVP Résumé:

• 30.8 points per game (4th in NBA)

• 32.1 percent usage rate (2nd in NBA)

• 13.5 Estimated Wins Added (2nd in NBA)

• 2024 East All-Star starter

• East Player of the Month in December

Antetokounmpo Can Win If:

While the Bucks have made a lot of headlines for the wrong reasons this season, the one consistent has been the awesome play of Antetokounmpo.

Even adding Damian Lillard hasn't affected the 29-year-old's workload, as only Luka Dončić has a higher usage rate than Antetokounmpo this season. No player outside of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has led to as many wins for their team as well.

Antetokounmpo's raw numbers will be good enough to win, especially with a career high 6.4 assists and an effective field-goal percentage of 62.7 percent, the highest among the top eight MVP candidates.

For Antetokounmpo to win a third MVP, the Bucks simply have to figure things out.

This is a narrative that could work in his favor. The coaching circus that's plagued Milwaukee over the last nine months could be seen as a major obstacle that Antetokounmpo can overcome, something none of the other candidates have had to go through.

The Bucks aren't going to win the East, but they could climb back up to No. 2 overall in the standings and finish with 50-plus wins.

If Antetokounmpo continues to put up monster numbers and Milwaukee gets back to playing elite basketball, the eight-time All-Star will have a chance at some more hardware.

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Stats up to date entering Friday's games.