5 MLB Hitters and Pitchers Best Positioned for Breakout Season in 2024
With Opening Day just over a month away, it's time to get ahead on some of the breakout-season candidates across MLB.
Breakout players are ones you may know but don't consider a household name just yet. Maybe it's a young player learning the big league game, or a more seasoned player still looking to take the next step forward.
Whichever the case, it's always fun to have some surprises emerge in a given campaign. Here, we look at players positioned to have a breakout season.
We have picked five hitters and five pitchers based on a combination of strides they've made with data points from last season and the opportunity in front of them to be great.
For fun, let's alternate between hitters and pitchers. Then let us know what you think in the comments section below.
St. Louis Cardinals RF Jordan Walker
1 of 10
Jordan Walker has the physical capabilities to be one of the better sluggers in baseball. He seemed primed for a breakout season as a rookie last year, but he faded due to a mix of his own struggles and the Cardinals' dreadful season.
This season, the 21-year-old is expected to take a leap. He slashed .276/.342/.445 in 2023 and was briefly demoted after struggling defensively, where he was learning a new position in right field. He hit 16 home runs and knocked in 51 runs in 117 games.
In year two, FranGraphs ZiPS projects him at 27 homers with 84 runs batted in. Walker has plenty to improve. He whiffs a lot and could barrel it better. If he does, the Cardinals could be primed for a resurgence.
The biggest concern with Walker is his defense. While he was new to right field, he was also one of the worst at the position by outs above average. That can't fly in St. Louis.
As a hitter, though, Walker is as intriguing as any non-star in the big leagues.
Kansas City Royals LHP Cole Ragans
2 of 10
One of the more underrated trade acquisitions at last year's deadline was the Royals getting Cole Ragans back from the Texas Rangers for reliever Aroldis Chapman.
The bigger headline was Chapman and the far superior team was the Rangers, as evidenced by them winning the World Series.
However, Ragans has an opportunity this season to prove himself to be the best player in the deal. He added a slider while in Triple-A last year, opening up his game.
The 26-year-old then posted a 2.64 ERA across 12 starts and struck out 89 batters while walking just 27.
The advanced numbers are another window into potential dominance by Ragans. His xERA (3.33) in 29 total appearances was in the 84th percentile. His fastball velocity was in the 89th percentile, while his whiff percentage and strikeout percentage were in the 83rd and 85th percentile, respectively.
The Royals are projected to win no more than 71 games by PECOTA this season, but Ragans could become a star.
Atlanta OF Jarred Kelenic
3 of 10
It will be fascinating to see how Jarred Kelenic responds to a fresh start in Atlanta, without the pressures of playing as the top prospect in Seattle who arrived in the trade for All-Star closer Edwin Diaz.
It's easy to forget after three seasons in the bigs that the former top prospect and No. 6 overall pick is still just 24.
He is not expected to be the second or third best player on the team. He gets to live in the shadows of NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley and Matt Olson with a star-studded rotation to go with it.
Kelenic is, however, expected to upgrade an Atlanta lineup that was already the best in baseball last year. After struggling in his first two big league seasons, he seemed to be figuring things out last year before his season was derailed by fracturing his foot on a dugout cooler out of frustration.
He strikes out more than you would like, but he gets to operate toward the bottom of Atlanta's lineup and provide some thump in a spot where it's more luxury than necessity.
Perhaps the best part for Kelenic is that Atlanta plans to play him every day rather than platooning, which gives him a chance to really spread his wings.
Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Bobby Miller
4 of 10
Bobby Miller is as talented as any pitcher on this list. He's a former top 100 prospect with a 100 mph fastball, velocity that very few can match.
The 2020 first-round draft pick ended up starting 22 games for the Dodgers last season, largely due to injuries. All he did was post a 3.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 11-4 record across 124.1 innings.
The fastball velocity is elite, but it's the offspeed stuff to balance it that makes him so dangerous. He uses the curveball to put away hitters 28.2 percent of the time. As his third-most used pitch, his curveball had a .184 opposing batting average and .198 xBA last season.
Miller's seldomly used changeup, mostly reserved for left-handed batters, had the highest whiff percentage (39.9) of his entire arsenal last year.
All of this suggests the 24-year-old could be the Dodgers' ace of the future. L.A. will certainly allow him the chance to test the theory.
Los Angeles Angels Catcher Logan O'Hoppe
5 of 10
Logan O'Hoppe is one of the Angels' exciting young players who still gives them some optimism, despite losing Shohei Ohtani in free agency. He hit 14 home runs and 29 runs batted in last season in just 51 games.
A torn shoulder labrum limited his action, but the 24-year-old is hoping to build off a limited yet productive sample size.
There is a power component to his game that is increasingly rare in catchers. But O'Hoppe must improve against breaking balls and offspeed pitches, to which he is susceptible to the swing-and-miss.
Still, his expected slugging, hard-hit and barrel percentages are promising. FanGraphs is projecting 20-plus homers for O'Hoppe, who is viewed by the Angels as their catcher of the future.
If the Angels are going to be competitive in what seems like a two-team race between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers (sorry Mariners), the development of O'Hoppe will be key.
Tampa Bay Rays RHP Zach Eflin
6 of 10
This is the oldest (29) and most-established of the pitchers' group. Zach Eflin is no newcomer, even clinching a save in the NL Wild Card Series for the Philadelphia Phillies on their way to the World Series two seasons ago.
He was brought into Tampa Bay as a free agent last season to provide depth and another veteran presence for what figured to be a stacked Rays rotation.
Since then, health and attrition have taken over and thrust Eflin into the limelight.
With Shane McClanahan sidelined by another Tommy John surgery, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen rehabbing injuries likely until midseason and Tyler Glasnow traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Eflin is the last man standing.
Fortunately for Tampa Bay, he's coming off a career year. His 3.50 ERA and 186 strikeouts were career bests, good enough for him to finish sixth in AL Cy Young voting.
Hardly anyone remembers the runner-up, much less the sixth-placed finisher. Yet the improved strikeout percentage, from 20.8 percent in 2022 to 26.5 percent in 2023, has to encourage the Rays. Tampa knows how to get the most out of its pitchers and Eflin is poised to be the latest example.
Between his strides from last season and the current situation in Tampa, it's a clear path for a breakout season.
Arizona Diamondbacks CF Alek Thomas
7 of 10
Alek Thomas has already established himself as an Arizona postseason hero and a solid member of its young core. It's been mostly his defense building that reputation, as his performance at the plate has left much to be desired in two big league seasons.
Except in the most recent postseason, where the 23-year-old hit four home runs in the first 14 games leading into the World Series. He was at his best in the seven-game NLCS, where he launched a pair of home runs with a .937 OPS. The most memorable moment was his two-run shot to tie Game 4 against the Philadelphia Phillies.
It was Thomas finally showing the hitting potential that made him such a prized prospect a couple of years ago. He played exceptional enough defense to be a Gold Glove award finalist and figures to again be a contender for the award.
The expected offensive leap is what would make this a breakout season. Thomas is projected to be better across the board, with a .259/.313/.415 slash line compared to last year's .230/.273/.374, according to FanGraphs.
His plate discipline is also projected to improve, from a 21.4 strikeout percentage last year to 19.8 percent in 2024, and from a 4.7 walk percentage to 6.5 percent.
Baltimore Orioles RHP Grayson Rodriguez
8 of 10
Grayson Rodriguez deserves a lot of credit for how he handled adversity in his big league debut last year.
After a rough first 10 starts and a demotion back to Triple-A, the 24-year-old returned as a different pitcher in mid-July. It was the tale of two seasons for him: 7.35 ERA in the first 10 starts, then a 2.58 ERA in 13 second-half starts.
In that stretch, Rodriguez was one of the AL's best starters.
What did the former top prospect figure out during his time in Triple-A? The biggest difference was how hitters no longer slugged his fastball at such an alarming clip (1.048 over 48 player appearances in May, compared to .346 in July, then .420 in both August and September).
Rodriguez has exceptional fastball velocity and some of the best pure stuff among young pitchers. With expectations rising each year in Baltimore, it's the perfect time for him to break out in his second season and be a co-ace alongside newly acquired Corbin Burnes.
Houston Astros Catcher Yainer Díaz
9 of 10
If it was left entirely up to Astros second-year general manager Dana Brown, the breakout season for catcher Yainer Díaz would have happened in 2023.
The issue was that well-respected veteran Martín Maldonado continued to play in front of him, despite abysmal offensive numbers.
The Astros were willing to sacrifice production at the plate for production from behind it, as the 37-year-old is one of the game's most brilliant minds. Houston's pitching staff trusted him in a way they never could with a rookie like Díaz.
With Maldonado gone to the Chicago White Sox in free agency, now it's time for the Díaz show. He slashed .282/.308/.538 with 23 home runs in 377 plate appearances last season.
Every projection shows a decline in those numbers as he's expected to get 50-80 more plate appearances. But those projections are short-changing the 25-year-old, whose expected numbers were elite last year. His .288 xBA was in the top 8 percent of MLB and his.543 xSLG was in the top 4 percent.
Longtime Astros beat reporter Brian McTaggart wrote for MLB.com in December that it's not a stretch to think Díaz could top 30 homers if he gets 500 plate appearances this season.
Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal
10 of 10
Tarik Skubal has been mostly out of sight and out of mind for two reasons. One, the Tigers have been dreadful and difficult to follow in recent years, but more importantly, injuries have kept him off the mound except for short doses.
The 27-year-old was the AL Pitcher of the Month in September and October. His 2.04 FIP and 2.58 xFIP in the second half of the season led all of the major leagues by a significant margin.
The advanced statistics indicate he has little to no weakness in his game. His xwOBA (.236) was in the top 1 percent of baseball. His 11.32 strikeouts per nine innings from the July 17 return until the end of the regular season trailed only Nick Pivetta and Spencer Strider.
Opportunity now awaits Skubal with Eduardo Rodríguez gone to the Arizona Diamondbacks. He's the obvious candidate to take the reins with a solid young core of starters to go with veterans Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda.
.jpg?w=600 "Former President Crashes Cowboys Presser")
.jpg?w=600 "Cardinals May Be Bluffing Pick")