Why Bronny James Didn't Make Our Last Mock Draft, and How That Can Change
Under the microscope of NBA scouts, fans and media, Bronny James has delivered mixed results since making his USC debut two months ago.
There is a general agreement that last summer's cardiac arrest should be factored in when assessing James' performance, given its likely impact on his offseason preparation. Inserting yourself onto a team mid-season isn't easy.
Still, his stats don't reflect a one-and-done draft pick: 5.8 points and 2.6 assists per game on 35.6 percent shooting, hence his omission from our latest mock draft.
James has drawn attention from NBA scouts for years, and there are recent examples of NBA teams ignoring underwhelming freshman seasons, taking into account unfavorable college situations and stronger high school evaluations.
The Denver Nuggets are currently being rewarded for using a first-round pick on Peyton Watson after he averaged just 3.3 points in 12.7 minutes per game during his one season at UCLA.
The big difference between James and Watson are their physical tools. James is a 6'4" guard lacking elite offensive weaponry and Watson is a 6'7" wing and dynamic defender. James has not shown enough offensive upside to establish a floor to give scouts confidence. Even with point guard and potential lottery pick Isaiah Collier missing six games, USC did little to increase James' on-ball reps or half-court looks.
James is missing the elusiveness and shiftiness to shake and manipulate like a lead ball-handler, not to mention the the size and scoring resume of an NBA-level 2-guard/wing. It makes it difficult to visualize a star or starter, let alone a rotation player. At USC, he ranks last on the team in offensive box plus-minus among players who've appeared in more than six games.
James could always be drafted by a team willing to look past this year's percentages, and instead bet on the eye test, his pre-USC tape, work ethic and a unique support system that can all point to expected development. But he'll still want to show some improvement in specific areas over the next month to maximize his chances of being selected in June.
Shooting Woes
Poor shooting is the biggest reason for James' inefficiency. Shooting was supposed to be a strength that would primarily fuel his scoring. Instead, he's made 27.4 percent of his total jump shots, which is problematic for a player who doesn't get to the rim or free-throw line often.
Playing off the ball, he's struggled badly in catch-and-shoot situations (9-of-39), particularly when contested (2-of-16 guarded). A slight hitch at the top of his release is visible, as there's a noticeable pause at the top that seems to disrupt the energy transfer/rhythm.
Changing shot preparation can indicate a lack of confidence or decisiveness. Sometimes he rushes. Other times, he takes too long or holds it before releasing, turning it into a contested isolation jumper. There seems to be some overthinking going on before the attempt.
Having watched James since his early days at Sierra Canyon, I have optimism that the now-19-year-old is a better shooter than what the numbers say. But the bar has to be extra high for a player like James, who isn't a high-level creator and doesn't put pressure on the rim in the half court.
Lack of Rim Pressure
James has had little success turning the corner on defenders, resulting in contested finishes below the rim. He's prone to taking off too early on drives or rushing lay-up attempts and runners without the confidence or ability to get close enough to the cylinder.
Any signs of self-creation have resulted in lower-percentage pull-ups, step-backs or longer floaters. A decent chunk of these shots have been mid-to-long-range twos.
One of the most telling stats that highlights James' worrisome lack of burst or wiggle handling the ball in the half court: He hasn't gotten to the rim once during any of his ball-screen possessions.
He's only made 16 free throws in 16 games.
Even in transition, James has had trouble on the fast breaks that aren't open dunks. He needs to get stronger with the ball in traffic. A loose handle can limit his ability to explode vertically.
James doesn't get himself easy looks, which is why his margin for error as a shooter will be so small. He'll have to be above average around the perimeter to hold NBA rotational value offensively, and so far, he's been well below average.
The Strengths Scouts Buy
The two areas scouts feel most confident can translate for James: passing and defense.
His 22.1 assist percentage reflects viable playmaking ability in a combo role. Scouts remain hesitant to call him a point guard, given the idea that NBA teams typically want their primary initiator to be more of a threat creating advantages off the dribble.
But James' court vision and feel have been evident in ball-screen situations, where he shows poise and makes smart reads, either setting up the screener or hitting the rotating wing shooter if the big man is tagged.
Despite taunting chants from the crowd whenever he touches the ball on the road, he generally lets the game come to him. Rarely does he stop the offense to try to make something happen. His ball-moving and decision-making are clearly appealing for a supporting role in any setting.
Defensively, he demonstrates quick feet and anticipation on the ball. He gets in a stance, slides and extends his arms. He doesn't die through screens and does a good job getting back into the play if he does get picked.
Off the ball, he's active and alert in passing lanes. He gets out to shooters. Any criticism of James' defense this early would be nitpicking. While his size may limit his positional versatility—he won't be guarding small forwards or big wings—James' ability to contain ball-handlers and process as a team defender are big pluses on the scouting report.
How James Can Draw More Interest for 2024 NBA Draft
With the idea that LeBron may come as a package deal with Bronny, there are unusual, outside factors that could play a role in the freshman's draft outlook. LeBron aside, Bronny deserves to be thought of as an NBA prospect, and it still seems possible that a team could take him without any assurance or interest in signing LeBron.
Realistically, Bronny's handle, burst and finishing won't change much from now until June. His shot can, and it's the obvious, easy way to win back hesitant scouts and restore the three-and-D and connector projections. He already has translatable passing and defense, so shooting would unlock those archetypes that are coveted and easy to fit.
Finding new ways to use his dribble to generate scoring chances will be a bonus, whether it's at the point of attack or in spot-up situations.
Regardless, all it takes is one team to buy low and see a pro who's being undervalued due to a small sample size of uncharacteristically poor shooting.
Statistics via Synergy Sports and Sports Reference unless otherwise noted.
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