Latest 2024 NFL QB Carousel Predictions After Super Bowl LVIII
Now that Super Bowl LVIII is in the books, it's time to start focusing on the NFL quarterback carousel that will spin—often unpredictably—during the leadup to and throughout the early stages of the 2024 offseason.
There are several prominent quarterbacks up for grabs this spring, making this potentially one of the most intriguing carousels in recent memory. The availability of a handful of proven veterans, promising young talent and rookie prospects alike is setting the stage for months of non-stop speculation, excitement and intrigue.
With that in mind, here are five predictions related to the NFL quarterback carousel and where it will stop for certain teams this offseason.
Baker Mayfield Will Stay with Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were one of the surprise stories of the 2023 NFL season. Largely expected to be a non-factor, this plucky team made the most of a weak NFC South slate to not only win the division and reach the playoffs, but also topple the Philadelphia Eagles and give the Detroit Lions a run for their money.
The catalyst for this success was the emergence of Baker Mayfield as a bona fide franchise quarterback. While it initially seemed that Mayfield was simply the best of the underwhelming options available to the Bucs following Tom Brady's retirement, the No. 1 overall pick in 2019 played some of his best football ever with the organization and earned his first Pro Bowl nod.
Mayfield finished 2023 having completed a respectable 64.3 percent of his passes for career highs of 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns. He posted a 9-8 record across his 17 starts—marking only the second-winning season Mayfield has produced—and appears to be a viable long-term solution. He now heads to free agency.
While there have been some rumblings that the Buccaneers could try to find an alternative signal-caller on the trade market, it wouldn't make much sense for the team to take a risk and cough up valuable draft capital following Mayfield's debut campaign in Tampa.
An anonymous NFC personnel evaluator agrees, explaining his reasoning to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler as such:
"I'm not sure it makes sense to go after someone else like Russell Wilson or Justin Fields when I'm not sure that's a substantial upgrade. Mayfield isn't perfect, but you can win games with him. He's streaky, but when he gets hot, he can produce like a top-10 guy."
Mayfield just went off for six touchdowns in his first two playoff starts for the Bucs, so there are clearly plenty of reasons to believe this team can rally behind the 28-year-old. Given his affordability—Spotrac calculated Mayfield's market value to be $27 million annually, a rather reasonable deal for a quality starting quarterback—Tampa should have no qualms about bringing Mayfield back on a long-term deal this offseason.
Chicago Bears Will Shake Things Up, Still Land Top Prospect
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The Chicago Bears brass is on the precipice of one of the tougher decisions any NFL front office has had to make in recent years. The team will need to decide between holding the line with Justin Fields for another year or moving on from the polarizing quarterback and selecting his replacement at the top of the 2024 draft.
While Fields righted the ship late in the year following a rough start to his much-anticipated third season, it's becoming clear that he's not going to find consistent success in the Windy City. With ownership remaining committed to head coach Matt Eberflus, it's time to let the current regime select its own signal-caller.
Although the Bears could simply take their guy with the No. 1 overall pick, the Bleacher Report Scouting Department came up with a creative way for Chicago to maximize draft capital and still come away with a blue-chip prospect in their post-Super Bowl mock draft.
In this latest mock, they have the Bears trading down to No. 2, allowing the Washington Commanders to slide up one spot and secure USC's Caleb Williams.
Williams may be an elite prospect, but Drake Maye—the UNC passer who the B/R Scouting Department has ranked No. 3 overall and No. 1 at the QB position on its big board—should be an even better fit for this organization. B/R scout Derrik Klassen explains why:
"Maye to Chicago should be a slam dunk. After Fields' struggles with playing from the pocket and on time, that won't be an issue for Maye. The North Carolina quarterback has exceptional pocket presence, often preempting pressure with shuffles and drifts throughout his drops when he knows he is being heated up. Maye also has a booming arm and is a scary strider out in the open field."
With Maye taking the reins of this offense, the Bears will be free to move on from Fields and add even more capital to their coffers in the process.
Denver Broncos Will Remain Saddled with Russell Wilson
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The Denver Broncos may have dreamt about becoming participants in the 2024 quarterback carousel, but they may be stuck with their incumbent slumping signal-caller for at least one more year.
The costs to rid themselves of Russell Wilson remain astronomically high nearly two years after the Broncos made an all-in blockbuster trade to acquire him. The decision to give him a $242.5 million contract extension that runs through the 2028 season continues to look like one of the biggest missteps in recent league history.
A trade will be tough to find given Wilson's poor play since leaving the Seattle Seahawks. One NFL executive told ESPN's Jeremy Fowler that Denver could offer draft compensation for helping bear the burden of the $39 million that Wilson is owed in guarantees for next season.
Releasing him at the start of the new league year would result in an absurd $85 million dead-cap charge, nearly a third of the projected 2024 salary cap. While that can be spread out a bit by designating him as a post-June 1 cut, Denver would still take on a shade over $35 million in dead money for next season and nearly $50 million the following year.
While retaining Wilson for the upcoming campaign also hurts—he'll be owed $37 million for the 2025 season if he's still on the roster past March 17—the beleaguered quarterback might stick around if he alters his current deal.
According to the NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Tom Pelissero and Mike Garafolo, the Broncos may approach Wilson about a contract restructuring that would ultimately lead to his sticking with the club for another year.
Considering the Broncos will have to back up the Brink's truck to pay him regardless, they appear to be accepting the grim reality that there is no better path to take this offseason.
It is a rather stunning change of direction after it appeared inevitable that the two sides would be parting ways earlier in the offseason. Despite their issues, neither party appears to have a better option than staying the course. Don't be surprised if they reunite for another disastrous campaign before mercifully parting ways in 2025.
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Kirk Cousins Will Sign with Atlanta Falcons
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It's not often that quarterback-needy teams have a chance to sign a Pro Bowler to fill that hole. That rare opportunity will present itself this spring with Kirk Cousins set to enter free agency following a six-year run with the Minnesota Vikings.
While Cousins is coming off a season-ending Achilles tear and will turn 36 years old before the 2024 season kicks off, he's played some of his best football in recent seasons and should be able to help whichever team lands him win games for several more.
Cousins, the No. 2 overall player on Pro Football Focus' free-agency big board, is only a year removed from the latest of his four Pro Bowl campaigns. He seemed well on his way to earning another nod, having racked up 2,331 yards and 18 touchdowns against five interceptions over the first eight games of 2023.
That type of sustained high-level play should make him an intriguing target for the Atlanta Falcons, a team that has all the offensive pieces in place to succeed but lacks a quarterback to unlock its potential.
Atlanta boasts a litany of talented skill-position players, including early first-round picks in tight end Kyle Pitts, wideout Drake London and running back Bijan Robinson. The team failed to find success with either Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke under center this past season, however, and needs to make a run at Cousins to start new head coach Raheem Morris' tenure on a high note.
With $29 million in cap space available and the ability to clear plenty more, the Falcons will be able to find a way to squeeze in a market-value deal—pegged by Spotrac to be a shade under $40 million annually—for Cousins while retaining their core players.
This single move will significantly raise the ceiling on Atlanta's offense and make the Falcons a favorite in the wide-open NFC South race next season.
Las Vegas Raiders Will Trade for Justin Fields
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The Las Vegas Raiders have a minor quarterback conundrum to sort out this offseason. The team deployed rookie fourth-rounder Aidan O'Connell to mixed results last year and must decide if it should forge ahead with the gritty but limited prospect or swing for the fences by bringing in a high-upside replacement.
While O'Connell had his moments after taking over the starting role from veteran Jimmy Garoppolo and drew praise from new head coach Antonio Pierce—who compared the first-year quarterback to Eli Manning for his poise following a game in which the Raiders won but didn't complete a pass over the final three quarters—it's going to be tough for this organization to turn down a chance to bring in a signal-caller with a first-round pedigree at a relatively cheap cost.
With Justin Fields likely available for a Day 2 pick—ESPN's NFL Nation predicts that the Chicago Bears would part with him for Vegas' second- and seventh-round selections—the No. 11 overall pick in 2021 could soon find himself heading to Sin City.
While neither Fields nor O'Connell's stats jump off the page, the former has far more upside than the latter thanks to his dual-threat abilities. Fields also has two additional pro seasons under his belt while still being a half-year younger than the current Raiders starter.
For a team that has veteran stars like Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby on the roster, that experience and the potential to win now should have plenty of appeal.
Vegas' decision to hire former Bears staffer Luke Getsy as offensive coordinator after being spurned by Kliff Kingsbury adds another layer of intrigue here as well. Chicago ranked No. 1 in the league in rushing offense in 2022 and No. 2 last year with Getsy as OC and Fields under center for most of the team's contests, although the bottom-tier passing attack did leave something to be desired.
Regardless, the Raiders don't have many better options. The team won't be on the clock until No. 13 overall and barring a massive trade up—a move that would decimate its draft coffers—Vegas won't find itself in a position to draft a quality prospect this season. That leaves Fields as their best path to success and the relatively low-risk, high-reward trade could pay dividends for the franchise.
Salary-cap info via Spotrac unless otherwise noted.
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