Top Prop Bets, Best Long Shots and Super Bowl LVIII Locks
More bets are expected to be placed on Super Bowl LVIII than any event in the history of the world. And if you're looking to (responsibly) get in on that action, we've got some thoughts.
We've scoured the wagers and props on the table at DraftKings to bring you the very best bets available for Sunday's matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.
Best of luck, folks.
Best Team Prop: Chiefs to Win from Behind (+220)
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We all know the Chiefs are an extremely resilient, battle-tested team. It's hard to believe they're even alive right now considering some of their ruts this season. The team is flawed, and there's a decent chance it'll fall behind an opponent with superior talent. But that's why I'd jump on this prop.
Kansas City came back to win six games this season, and the Chiefs overcame a fourth-quarter deficit on the road against the Buffalo Bills earlier in these playoffs.
Meanwhile, Kyle Shanahan's Atlanta Falcons blew a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI and his 49ers also squandered a fourth-quarter lead over these very Chiefs in the Super Bowl four years ago.
It's hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, even if it's easy to envision them trailing at some point in Sunday's game.
Best Player Prop: Patrick Mahomes over 26.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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Win or lose, there's also a good chance Mahomes will feel the need to take things into his own hands on a few occasions. That's often the case these days for a quarterback who has averaged 36 rushing yards per game in Kansas City's past four outings.
It's hard to imagine him falling short of 27 yards on the ground against a strong 49ers coverage unit that will likely force the two-time MVP to improvise. Five quarterbacks rushed for more than 40 yards against the San Francisco defense this year.
Mahomes has rushed for at least 29 yards in all three of his Super Bowl appearances and should easily hit that range again in this spot.
Best Conventional Bet: Under 47.5 Points (-108)
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So much talk these past two weeks has focused on Mahomes, Reid, Shanahan and the multitude of weapons in San Francisco's arsenal, but few are considering that this is a matchup between two of the three highest-ranked scoring defenses in the NFL.
The Chiefs have surrendered just 13.3 points per game since the start of January, and they also haven't scored 30 points in a game since Thanksgiving weekend. The 49ers defense has been a little less steady of late but is still loaded with talent and isn't too far removed from a six-week stretch in which it gave up just 13.0 points per game.
I know betting the under is neither sexy nor fun, but oddsmakers are aware of that fact and they piggyback on public trends to use that against you.
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MVP Value Bet: Brandon Aiyuk (+6000)
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No receiver in Sunday's game was close to as productive as Brandon Aiyuk this season, and yet seven players—including five non-quarterback skill-position players—have better MVP odds than the 25-year-old former first-round pick.
No, it's not likely a non-quarterback wins MVP. But it does happen from time to time! And when it does, wide receivers are the next-most-common winners. Twelve of the past 19 Super Bowl MVPs were quarterbacks, but next on the list is wide receiver at five. No other position has won it in that time frame except linebacker (twice).
Christian McCaffrey is a special running back, but those recent trends still hurt his case. Meanwhile, a tight end hasn't won the award sine 1978. Deebo Samuel and Rashee Rice are factors, but I think it's easier for a member of Brock Purdy's supporting cast to win it than a member of Mahomes' arsenal, and Samuel might not be fully healthy. And those guys also have much better odds (+2000 and +5000, respectively), so there's less value there.
Right now, Aiyuk looks like a potential steal on the verge of a breakout following a somewhat quiet playoff run to this point.
Super Bowl LVIII Lock: Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD Scorer (-215)
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You just know Shanahan is going to rely heavily on his best player in big spots. The 49ers might not win this game and McCaffrey might not break that running back MVP drought, but a guy who has scored a league-high 25 touchdowns this year (including four in two playoff games) will almost certainly score his first-ever Super Bowl touchdown in Sunday's game.
I'd also consider McCaffrey as a first-time touchdown scorer at +380, because he's found paydirt in the first half of 13 of San Francisco's 18 games this season, but that's obviously a lot less of a lock.
Either way, look for Run CMC to score at least once as Shanahan tries to keep things simple in the biggest game of his career Sunday.
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