NBA Predictions 1 Week Away from 2024 Trade Deadline
Given how active the NBA trade market has already been, it's possible things could be quiet at the Feb. 8 trade deadline.
The market is light on both obvious sellers and on-court difference-makers, so many potential buyers may wind up failing to find whatever they're trying to get.
Then again, the ticking clock of the deadline tends to send front offices into a frenzy. And with an abundance of average-to-good teams angling to separate themselves from the pack, sellers may wind up finding the assets needed to let go of their most coveted contributors.
With fingers-crossed for an active trade season, let's go crystal-ball gazing with a five-pack of trade deadline predictions.
Warriors Trade a Core Player
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The Golden State Warriors are somewhere between floundering and free-falling. Either way, they're nowhere a championship-chaser should ever be.
Since stringing together a five-game winning streak in the middle of December, they've gone just 5-10 with a minus-3.5 net rating (23rd). They've clearly reached the something's-gotta-give stage, and a major move is needed regardless of what they have planned for their next step. And they know it.
"Everyone is on the table except for Steph Curry," Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium said on FanDuel's Run It Back, via NBC Sports Bay Area. "... They're going to take calls on Andrew Wiggins, Chris Paul and could they get interest on a guy even like Klay Thompson? I think those are very much open conversations for the Warriors."
Golden State must choose a direction soon—flipping win-now players for future assets is an intriguing option if it could get Curry's blessing—and pursue it wholeheartedly. This roster obviously isn't cutting it, so some degree of restructuring should be on the docket.
Whether it's Wiggins, Thompson or even Draymond Green—probably listed in descending order of likelihood—look for the Warriors to use a key contributor to facilitate a significant swap.
Mavs Reunite with Dorian Finney-Smith
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While the Dallas Mavericks have had trouble escaping the Western Conference's crowded middle class, they've still seen flashes of a championship-level foundation. When backcourt stars Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving share the floor with rookie rim-runner Dereck Lively II, Dallas has stomped opponents by 8.8 points per 100 possessions.
The Mavs could be even better, though, and would be if two things happened. First, they need that trio to log more floor time together. They've logged just 269 shared minutes over 18 outings, as each player has missed a not insignificant amount of games. Irving, not surprisingly, has been the least available of the bunch and is sidelined by a thumb sprain.
Getting—and keeping—those players on the court is paramount to this team's success, but it may not be enough to hang with the hoops world's elites. To do that, Dallas needs to upgrade the forward spot, and it can do so by bringing back longtime Maverick swingman Dorian Finney-Smith.
The three-and-D ace spent his first six-plus seasons in Dallas, impressing first with his hustle and defensive versatility and later adding a fiery three-point shot to his arsenal. He may not be a star, but he's a more dynamic defender than Grant Williams and a more reliable spacer than Derrick Jones Jr. Finney-Smith is, in many ways, the ideal type of support player to slot alongside ball-dominant, offense-first stars like Dončić and Irving.
The Mavs have previously shown interest in Finney-Smith, per HoopsHype's Michael Scotto, and Dončić has expressed a desire to reunite with his former running mate. Finney-Smith won't come cheap—he has a team-friendly contract that runs through at least next season—but a full-strength Dallas squad is close enough to contention to justify a substantial splurge.
Kings Pry Alex Caruso out of Chicago with Multiple 1st-Round Picks
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The Chicago Bulls have shown almost zero interest in an Alex Caruso trade. Expect teams to keep calling about the lockdown defender, anyway, as he's the top trade chip on a team that should face the facts that it has neither a championship roster now nor any realistic avenues to grow one organically.
Plus, Caruso isn't technically off-limits; he's just super expensive. The Bulls "would need multiple first-round picks to even consider" a Caruso deal, per Yahoo Sports' Jake Fischer.
That trade price may cause sticker shock to some, as none of Caruso's traditional stats paint him like a difference-maker (10.1 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.7 assists over 26.2 minutes).
Yet, that's exactly how advanced metrics view him. He's in the 90th percentile—slotted alongside Jamal Murray and Domantas Sabonis—of estimated plus/minus. By defensive estimated plus/minus, he's in the same 98th percentile as Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Caruso has also amassed a massive 126.2 points per 100 shot attempts, a 93rd percentile mark among combo guards.
Caruso is a brilliant, tireless defender (All-Defensive first-teamer last season) who plays a low-maintenance, high-energy offensive role that fits with anyone. He also happens to play on one of the league's best non-rookie contracts.
He offers missing-piece potential for all win-now shoppers, but the Sacramento Kings, who might need a defense-first glue guy to really level up, should outbid everyone for his services. It'll cost them a pair of first-round picks (and probably more stuff), but the opportunity to give De'Aaron Fox and Sabonis a true shot at contention is worth it.
76ers Swing a Deal for Bogdan Bogdanović
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Assuming Joel Embiid's knee injury isn't anything major, the Philadelphia 76ers have a real chance to make their long-awaited playoff breakout a reality. Their proximity to contention, though, should not be a reason to keep it cautious at the deadline.
In fact, the opposite should happen. Because Philly has a path to the championship podium, this front office should be aggressively searching for upgrades who would improve their title chances. With a healthy collection of draft picks and several mid-sized salaries to make the math work on just about anything, the Sixers should be mentioned as potential suitors of the very best players on the market.
Not all of them are ideal fits, though. Deal for DeMar DeRozan or Kyle Kuzma, and there's a risk of sabotaging the offensive spacing. Add Dejounte Murray, and the Sixers could stall Tyrese Maxey's ascension. Splurge on a specialist shooter or stopper, and there's a chance that player gets schemed off the floor come playoff time.
The Sixers need someone with a fiery three-ball, the ability to create offense off the dribble and some degree of defensive competence. Bogdan Bogdanović checks every box. The 6'5", 220-pounder is pumping in 3.1 perimeter shots per night with a 37.1 percent splash rate. His 17.1 points per game are a career high, while his 7.3 turnover percentage is a career-low. His 54th percentile ranking in defensive estimated plus/minus isn't great, but he isn't someone Philly would have to hide on that end, either.
Now, he isn't cheap, as his four-year, $68 million extension just kicked in this season. He could be costly to get, too, as the Atlanta Hawks "seemingly want to keep [him] past the trade deadline," per HoopsHype's Michael Scotto. Neither of those things should scare off the Sixers.
The 2024 free-agent pool is pretty shallow, and Philly would still have money to spend even after acquiring Bogdanović. Plus, the Sixers have enough assets to convince the Hawks that a trade is in their best interest. Philly can get something done, and it should, because he's an excellent on-paper fit with Embiid and Maxey.
Lakers Land Dejounte Murray Without Losing Austin Reaves
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The Los Angeles Lakers are running on fumes. Since winning the inaugural In-Season Tournament, this squad has stumbled to a 10-16 record with a bottom-third net rating (minus-3.7, 21st). Anthony Davis is nursing hip and Achilles injuries, and LeBron James sounds fed up.
If L.A. is going to salvage this season, it must do something significant at the deadline. More specifically, it needs to turn all of these rumblings of a Dejounte Murray deal into an actual acquisition.
It doesn't appear super promising at the moment, as HoopsHype's Michael Scotto reported Murray-to-L.A. chatter "has lessened" of late. The Lakers need a third team to take back D'Angelo Russell in a deal, but that club "has yet to materialize." Plus, L.A. feels some "hesitancy" about adding an asset to incentivize someone to take back Russell, who's averaging 22.7 points on 48.8/45.9/84.2 shooting this month.
Still, it only takes one phone call to get things going again, and the Lakers should be doing everything they can to get the Hawks on the horn. Murray is the best player on the market, and he can address several of L.A.'s biggest needs, including shot-creation, pressuring the rim off the dribble and point-of-attack defense.
If the Lakers can get Murray without losing Austin Reaves—a package involving Russell, a future first and rookie first-rounder Jalen Hood-Schifino should get them close at the very least—that should be a no-brainer. L.A. clearly needs a boost, and Murray is the trade target most capable of providing it.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference, Cleaning the Glass, Dunks & Threes and NBA.com and current through games played on Tuesday.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on X, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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