Predicting the NBA's Best Rivalries of the Next 5 Years
Rivalries in the NBA aren't dead; they've just taken different forms.
Animosity between entire teams is harder to find these days. The reasons behind this decline are manyfold. The league has diluted the importance of divisions, making those clashes almost indecipherable (in most cases) from others.
True rivalries also tend to be forged during the postseason, and the Association's increase in parity has turned recurring playoff (and Finals) battles into more of a rarity. Shrinking title windows, aided in large part by more frequent player movement, merely contributes to the decline.
So, right now, the NBA doesn't have a rivalry on the level of the Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers from decades past. Today's most adversarial matchups are instead driven by players.
We live to see certain household names go up against another who's vying for the same award, positional supremacy, face-of-the-league status or something else. Sometimes, these individual scores can lead to more traditional we-hate-you, no-we-hate-you-more team-vs.-team rivalries.
Regardless, the stakes when a select few players meet up are a notch or three higher than they would be against anyone else—even if those stakes are ascribed by media and fans more than the players themselves. And, of course, there are still some entire-team rivalries shining bright enough to matter.
Which of these cases figure to be most entertaining in the NBA over the next five years? That's the question we're here to answer.
Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks
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For the past half-decade or so, the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks have basically entered every season as the consensus two best teams in the Eastern Conference. That puts them on an annual collision course by default.
And it probably won't change much over the next five years.
Boston's title window is more open-ended than Milwaukee's competitive timeline. The Bucks are older and much, much lighter on assets that can help them beef up the core around Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Still, they have Antetokounmpo. He doesn't turn 30 until December. He should have about a half-decade's worth of basketball left in his prime, and so long as he's playing at or near his peak, Milwaukee will remain relevant.
Both teams ratcheted up the immediate stakes this past offseason. The Celtics turned over part of a 2022 Finals core to bring in Kristaps Porziņģis and, eventually, Jrue Holiday. The Bucks, meanwhile, flipped the latter as part of the Damian Lillard blockbuster and a massive investment in bumping up their offensive ceiling.
This rivalry does, admittedly, need some postseason spice. Boston and Milwaukee have met three times in the playoffs since 2018—and just once in the past four years. The Celtics hold the series edge 2-1, though availability caveats abound in just about every meeting.
Each year, though, these two feel destined to meet in the second round or conference finals. It's hard to see that changing too much over the next five years.
Joel Embiid vs. Nikola Jokić
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Do you need evidence that external forces create player rivalries? Look no further than Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokić.
Positional battles for All-NBA teams (under the previous rules) always stood to thrust them under the same microscope. But as they both rose to the level of MVP-caliber, the "Who's better?" debate became an analog for how you look at basketball and what you value most.
Like all long-running debates that lack meaningful on-court volume to work off—these two have faced off just eight times in their careers—the subject matter turns contentious.
Through last season, Jokić was the source of much unrest. How could he be a two-time, potentially three-time, MVP when he clearly wasn't good enough to be the best player on a championship team? Something, something, something defense, right?
Embiid won his first MVP award last year after finishing second to Jokić on each of the previous two ballots. It wasn't because of the aforementioned narrative, but that framing certainly didn't hurt his case.
Now, though, Embiid is the one facing backlash for prioritizing his 30-point, 10-rebound streak and second MVP chase, potentially at the expense of health. (Note: He has said he cares more about getting healthy for the playoffs than qualifying for the MVP race.) And Jokić, for his part, is fresh off winning a title and 2023 Finals MVP award, a pair of accolades that glitzes up his individual resume while inflating the stakes of every comparison to Embiid.
You can feel the specter of this debate looming over each head-to-head, rare as they are. It was there when the Philadelphia 76ers hosted the Denver Nuggets on Jan. 16, and it will be there when they meet again in the Mile High City on Jan. 27.
And with both superstars still firmly in their prime, the aura of this debate should endure for the foreseeable future.
Devin Booker and Luka Dončić
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Devin Booker was asked about his "rivalry" with Luka Dončić ahead of the Phoenix Suns' Christmas Day tilt against the Dallas Mavericks. He was, not surprisingly, nonchalant about the entire thing.
"I think that's just another moment that proves what social media is about and people try to stir drama and look for anything clickbait," he told reporters. "Me and Luka's respect for each other has been mutual and at a high level since he came into the league."
Mutual respect doesn't negate a rivalry's existence, though. Reciprocal dislike foments some of the best headlines. Animosity is good for feuds. But rivalries cannot exist without respect.
And while that Christmas Night matchup unfolded without any fireworks—mostly because Dallas cruised to victory—these two stars are much too talented and much too young to declare their rivalry-founded-upon-respect a thing of the past.
Yes, the genesis of this interest dates back more than a year, to the 2022 Western Conference semifinals. Lots of jawing took place throughout that series, culminating in this iconic moment during Phoenix's elimination-game implosion:
But the tension didn't dissipate from there. Things got chippy again this past spring:
Maybe the internet is over these two. But that's only until it isn't—until the next time these two megastars in their 20s square off and see their respect mutate into high-stakes hostility.
Relevance, after all, is a key ingredient of any rivalry. And at 24 and 27, respectively, Dončić and Booker should remain two of the NBA's biggest stars, competing in some of the biggest games, for a long, long time.
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Chet Holmgren vs. Victor Wembanyama
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Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren were always, on some level, destined to be rivals. The basketball intelligentsia, collectively, was never not going to pit two seven-foot-plus skyscrapers with operable ball skills and transformative defensive impacts against one another.
Especially when they entered the league at about the same time.
The right foot injury that cost Holmgren all of his would-be inaugural campaign in 2022-23 has only added to their inextricable ties. They are now members of the same 2023-24 rookie class, ostensibly vying for the same Rookie of the Year honor.
Then again, Holmgren has so far ensured it isn't too close of a race, which again fuels the intrigue. He is no worse than the third-best player on what might be the best team in the Western Conference. He could make the All-Star team. Or an All-Defense team. Or even an All-NBA team.
Hovering around the peripheries of those discussions is largely unheard of for a newbie. And it has put pressure on Wembanyama to be even more transcendent. His paint presence already screams "Future multi-time Defensive Player of the Year." But can he rival Holmgren's outside stroke? Will he definitely be the better self-creator?
Are the masses drooling too heavily over Holmgren, perhaps failing to adequately account for the talent around him that Wemby doesn't have in San Antonio? Or are we just reluctant to admit that the Frenchman might not be the world's best or most complete big-man prospect?
This debate will rage forward into their Jan. 24 clash on ESPN. And then on. And on. And onward still.
And we'll all be better off for it.
Paolo Banchero vs. Chet Holmgren
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I am manifesting this has-to-be-at-least-a-normal-rivalry into a big-picture-mega-rivalry.
Everyone is caught up in the Victor Wembanyama vs. Chet Holmgren hype, and not undeservedly so.
But can we be certain, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that Holmgren mandates Wemby-adjacent consideration when he hasn't technically proved to be the best player in his draft class?
Say what you will, but Paolo Banchero wants a word. Many of them, in fact.
Various metrics will paint Holmgren, drafted second overall in 2022, as the superior player. And he is, no doubt, far more efficient. But Banchero, the No. 1 pick in 2022, is shouldering a more complicated workload.
Noticeably more than half his made buckets are going unassisted. Holmgren, on the other hand, gets teed up for nearly 75 percent of his baskets. And while Banchero won't be contending for any Defensive Player of the Year awards, he is sturdy and consistent enough at the less-glamorous end that you can envision a scenario in which he becomes one of the Association's premier two-way players.
This isn't anti-Holmgren propaganda. It's more like a "Hey! Paolo's here and really good and could be better than Chet, too!" public service announcement.
We were treated to our first-ever matchup featuring these two on Jan. 13. It was a blast...for Holmgren.
We'll hopefully get many more in the future—two per regular season, with the possibility of Finals collisions looming relative to the long-term trajectories both the Oklahoma City Thunder and Orlando Magic are traveling.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac. Draft-pick obligations via RealGM.
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