Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, Other NFL QBs Who Should Be on Hot Seat Entering 2024
There are two types of teams in today's NFL—those that have an elite quarterback, and those that do not.
Football is still a team sport, and quarterbacks can't control many of the factors that determine their teams' results. However, quarterbacks will always be judged by their ability to play at a high level consistently and find success in the postseason. Quarterbacks who can't will inevitably be replaced.
The standard set for a "franchise" quarterback isn't too altogether different than that of a head coach. There comes a point when good regular-season win/loss records and postseason appearances simply aren't enough. And like head coaches, even high-profile quarterbacks can eventually find themselves on the hot seat.
While many teams are already eyeing their quarterback options in April's draft, several others could be in the hunt a year from now. Below, we'll dive into five quarterbacks who should be on the hot seat entering 2024 and why.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
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Aside from perhaps the Philadelphia Eagles, the Dallas Cowboys were the biggest disappointments of Super Wild Card Weekend.
For Philadelphia, the disappointment stems from its late-season collapse. The defending NFC champs were 10-1 at one point but finished as a wild-card team. The Eagles were also on the road and without No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown.
Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts, who has already been to the Super Bowl once, should get a bit of a pass here. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott should not.
The Cowboys were as healthy as any team entering the playoffs, and they hosted the seventh-seeded Green Bay Packers. Prescott finished the regular season with 4,516 passing yards and 36 touchdowns. At one point, he even appeared to be the MVP front-runner.
Over the weekend, though, he was clearly outplayed by first-year starter Jordan Love, and Dallas fell into an early 27-0 hole before losing 48-32. Prescott eventually padded his stats in in garbage time, but his performance in the first half (87 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) was telling. So is his 2-5 record in the playoffs.
After eight years as the Cowboys' starter, Prescott still isn't a quarterback who can be trusted in the postseason. With Prescott set to turn 31 in July and entering the final year of his contract, Prescott should be looking at one last chance to prove himself.
He'll play for the Cowboys in 2024. His massive $59.5 million cap hit virtually guarantees that. Yet Dallas was expected to work out a new long-term deal in the offseason, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport. An extension after another playoff flop would seem foolhardy.
Prescott has generally been great in the regular season—though his 4-5 road record in 2023 wasn't great—but it should be NFC title game or bust for him next season. If the three-time Pro Bowler can't take Dallas at least that far, expect franchise owner Jerry Jones to start searching for a quarterback who can.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
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Things are a bit different for Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who started his first career playoff game over the weekend. For the Alabama product, questions have hung over his entire pro career.
Early on, those questions involved Tagovailoa's ability to even be a high-level starter. He was in and out of the lineup over his first two seasons and didn't really take off until Miami hired head coach Mike McDaniel and traded for receiver Tyreek Hill.
Those additions unlocked Tagovailoa as a top-tier distributor. With schemes that broke receivers open and plenty of speed on the field, Tagovailoa's vision and accuracy allowed him to succeed. However, injuries—notably a series of concussions—raided more concerns.
This past season, the 25-year-old managed to stay healthy, and he rewarded the Dolphins with a career year and a playoff berth. Tagovailoa led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards and, like Prescott, was once a viable MVP candidate.
However, the Dolphins faded down the stretch, losing three of their final five regular-season games before falling 26-7 to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Wild Card Round. Miami also had a 1-5 record in the regular season against teams that finished above .500.
Two big concerns loom over Tagovailoa now—his ability to beat quality opponents and his ability to create big plays when stars like Hill and Jaylen Waddle aren't at 100 percent. He's been fantastic when things are on schedule and merely average when they're not.
After watching dynamic quarterbacks like Love, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes continually make jaw-dropping plays over the weekend, it's hard to consider Tagovailoa an elite quarterback. Yet he's due to be paid like one.
Tagovailoa is entering the final year of his rookie deal, and fellow 2020 draft-mates Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert have already gotten paid. Both are making north of $52 million annually, and given the next-man-up nature of QB contracts, an extension for Tagovailoa probably wouldn't fall very short of that.
General manager Chris Grier has said that "the goal" is to keep Tagovailoa in Miami long-term (h/t NFL.com's Kevin Patra). Before the Dolphins commit to that, though, they may want to ensure that their quarterback can stay on the field, beat playoff-caliber opponents, elevate the talent around him and start putting wins in the postseason record books.
In other words, 2024 could be a make-or-break year for Tagovailoa.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
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New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones got his lucrative second contract last offseason. While he didn't get a deal approaching those of Burrow and Herbert, the 26-year-old still got a handsome four-year, $160 million extension.
It's already fair to wonder if that contract was a mistake. Jones was rewarded for a season that, from many quarterbacks, wouldn't have impressed. He finished 2022 with 3,205 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions with 708 rushing yards and seven rushing scores.
However, that represented sizeable progress for the 2019 first-round pick, who thrived under rookie coach Brian Daboll and helped New York reach the postseason. Still, Jones probably wouldn't have received such a large contract if both he and running back Saquon Barkley weren't set to become free agents.
The Giants ended up using the franchise tag on Barkley and caving to Jones' contract demands to avoid losing their best offensive player or starting over at the game's most important position. However, Jones struggled mightily (70.5 passer rating) before suffering a season-ending ACL tear.
The fact that four of New York's six victories in 2023 were earned by either Tommy DeVito or Tyrod Taylor—and DeVito finished Jones' second win—doesn't really support the idea that the Giants have found their franchise savior.
Daboll could very well be on the hot seat in 2024 if he doesn't find a way to get the Giants back on track in a hurry. That reality means that Jones will likely be on a short leash next season, and if he doesn't return to his 2022 form, and ideally improve on it, he could be out in 2025.
While Jones currently has $69.3 million in dead money remaining on his contract, New York has a bit of an out next offseason. The Giants could cut Jones in 2025 with a post-June 1 designation and clear $30.5 million in cap space.
If Jones struggles enough that the Giants are in a position to draft a new quarterback, they probably will.
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Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
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With the third overall pick in the 2024 draft, the New England Patriots are already in a position to draft a new quarterback. They may have to move up a spot or two, but a top prospect like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye is within the Patriots' grasp.
This is why quarterback Mac Jones didn't make this list. He was already on the hot season by midseason and was benched for Bailey Zappe down the stretch. Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett, who was drafted in the first round one year after Jones was, could be in a very similar position a year from now.
Though he wasn't a Pro Bowler as a rookie as Jones was, Pickett did show promising glimpses in his inaugural NFL campaign. He finished the 2022 season with a 7-5 record and helped the Steelers achieve a winning record following a 2-6 start.
Pickett also had a 7-5 record in 2023, though he failed to exhibit growth over his rookie year. He took care of the football but was too often either unwilling or unable to push the football down the field. The firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada didn't solve the problem, and Pittsburgh's passing attack didn't pick up until Mason Rudolph became the starter.
Rudolph got the job after Pickett underwent ankle surgery. However, Rudolph remained the starter, even in the playoffs, after Pickett was healthy enough to return. That should say plenty about how the Steelers view Pickett.
This doesn't mean that Pittsburgh is ready to move on from Pickett just yet.
"The organization does still believe in Kenny Pickett and in no way wants to move on from him after the season," NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said on NFL GameDay on January 6. "Still a ton of confidence that he can be a franchise starter."
However, 2024 could be the 25-year-old's final chance. The Steelers will have a new offensive coordinator, so we should learn just how responsible Canada was for Pickett's lack of growth. If the quarterback doesn't blossom by the end of Year 3, it may be time to move on.
And Pittsburgh may look to move on even sooner. Another factor to consider is that head coach Mike Tomlin is entering the final year of his contract. He's told the team that he'll be back in 2024, but his future beyond that is murky at best.
Tomlin has never had a losing season as Pittsburgh's coach. He likely won't hesitate to bench Pickett again if his streak is in jeopardy.
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
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Prescott, Tagovailoa, Jones and Pickett all have one thing in common. They're still playing for the teams that drafted them. That's not the case for New Orleans Saints quarterback Darek Carr.
Carr was released by the Las Vegas Raiders last offseason after nine years of being just good enough to flirt with contention. He made four Pro Bowls with the Raiders but had a losing record and was 0-1 in the postseason. (Remember what we said in the opening about teams eventually moving on?)
The New Orleans Saints, however, decided that they were a quarterback away from contending in the NFC South and were eager to take a chance on the 32-year-old. They signed him to a four-year, $150 million deal in free agency, and it's looking like New Orleans erred.
It was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who won the division, after signing quarterback Baker Mayfield to a bargain one-year, $4 million deal. Mayfield had a career resurgence in Tampa, while Carr was pretty much the same quarterback he was in Las Vegas.
The Saints finished with a 9-8 record and weren't eliminated until the final week, but they missed the playoffs for the third straight year. Carr posted a respectable 97.7 passer rating, but he led an offense that ranked 16th in net yards per pass attempt and 14th overall.
That wasn't good enough, and the Saints fired longtime offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. on Tuesday.
It would be unfair to say that Carr's "just good enough" play cost Carmichael his job, but it certainly didn't help. With head coach Dennis Allen (likely) entering 2024 on the hot seat, Carr should do the same.
Carr has $52.8 million in dead money remaining on his contract, so he'll be back in 2024. Like Daniel Jones, though, he'll be a realistic cut candidate in 2025 if he doesn't deliver a playoff victory or two
New Orleans could release Carr next offseason with a post-June 1 designation and save $40 million in cap space.
Given the franchise's penchant for kicking contracts down the road and frequently being in a bad cap situation—the Saints enter the offseason with a projected $82.9 million cap deficit—the savings may be far more valuable than slightly above-average quarterback play.
*Cap and contract information via Spotrac.
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