2023-24 NFL MVP: Predictions, Odds for Award's Top Candidates

The NFL MVP race doesn't factor in playoff performances.

That's just as well, since oddsmakers apparently saw enough to crown a winner upon the campaign's completion.

The 18-week slate left little doubt about which player would take home the hardware this season, but let's break down this award race anyway with a look at the latest odds, a case for the top candidates and a not-at-all-shocking prediction.

The Odds

Michael Owens/Getty Images

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - JANUARY 14: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys looks to pass as he warms up prior to an NFL wild-card playoff football game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers at AT&T Stadium on January 14, 2024 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson: -20000 (bet $200 to win $1)

Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott: +1800 (bet $10 to win $180)

San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy: +3500

San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey: +4000

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen: +5000

Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill: +7500

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa: +10000

Via DraftKings Sportsbook

The Tale of the Tape

G Fiume/Getty Images

LANDOVER, MARYLAND - DECEMBER 31: Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers throws a pass against the Washington Commanders at FedExField on December 31, 2023 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)

Lamar Jackson

Beyond balling out in high-profile matchups with Brock Purdy (252 passing yards and two touchdowns, 45 rushing yards) and Tua Tagovailoa (321 passing yards, five touchdowns and three incompletions), Jackson, the 2019 winner, was the most dynamic player on this season's most successful team. He threw for 3,678 yards, ran for 821 yards and tallied 29 total touchdowns.

Dak Prescott

Prescott not only steered the Cowboys to an NFC East division title, but also he was the league's only quarterback to land in the top three of both passing yards (4,516, third) and passing touchdowns (36, first). His 69.5 completion percentage was a new personal best, and his nine interceptions were his third-fewest as a full-time starter.

Brock Purdy

Purdy set a San Francisco franchise record with his 4,280 passing yards this season while pacing all full-time starters in quarterback rating (113.0) and QBR (72.7, per ESPN). His 9.6 yards per attempt were the most among quarterbacks with 100-plus passes, and he was one of three quarterbacks (along with Prescott and Jordan Love) to have at least 30 touchdown passes and fewer than 12 interceptions.

Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey served as the proverbial unstoppable force this season, gashing opposing defenses as a ball-carrier, a pass-catcher and, more than anything, a touchdown machine. He cleared 2,000 scrimmage yards with 1,459 on the ground and another 564 through the air. He also set a new career high with 21 touchdowns (14 rushing, seven receiving).

Josh Allen

Had Allen's interception count not climbed to a new career high (18) or had his Bills nudged their win total north of 11, he may have been the award favorite. His 4,306 passing yards were fourth overall, his 29 touchdown passes tied for fifth and his 15 rushing touchdowns tied for second.

Tyreek Hill

Hill looked like he may have been headed toward a 2,000-yard campaign at times, but he was forced to "settle" for a personal-best 1,799 yards on a career-high-tying 119 receptions. Both of those marks were top-two overall, as were his 13 touchdown catches (tied for first).

Tua Tagovailoa

While Tagovailoa wasn't immune to the occasional quiet outing, he still found his way to a league-leading 4,624 passing yards. And he did so while posting a personal-best 69.3 completion percentage. His 29 touchdown throws were the most of his career and tied for fifth-most overall.

The Prediction

Michael Owens/Getty Images

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - DECEMBER 31: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens celebrates after a touchdown during an NFL football game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Miami Dolphins at M&T Bank Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

Somewhere between Jackson's Christmas night takedown of Purdy's 49ers and his drubbing of Tagovailoa's Dolphins six days later, drama was essentially erased from this discussion.

There isn't a question of whether Jackson will win this award. Rather, only the size of his victory is up for debate.

The first time he claimed the honor, he did so in unanimous fashion. That scenario is absolutely in play again, which says quite a bit given the statistical arguments his other competitors can make.

However, Baltimore had the best season of any team this season, and Jackson is the biggest reason. If any voter doesn't place him atop their ballot, they'll have some explaining to do.

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