The 9 NHL Forwards in Line for Monster Contracts After William Nylander's Extension
The NHL salary cap is projected to rise from $83.5 million to $87.7 million next year. If it stands, the $4.2 million increase will be the largest in a single year since the 2019-20 season.
In short, stars in or around their prime who are set to hit the market in the next few years are going to get paid.
William Nylander is one of the latest examples of the trend to come, after the Toronto Maple Leafs signed him to an eight-year, $92 million extension through 2032.
The deal, which is the most expensive total value deal in the team's history, brings the total cost of the core four (Nylander, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares) to more than $40 million on the books for next season.
The Toronto situation is a reminder of how much context matters during contract negotiations: The franchise is generally going to spend to the cap in a bid to make it to a Cup final, while Nylander's agent had some leverage with his steady improvement over the years, his current career season and the rest of the core's expensive contracts. The icing on the cake here is the rising cap.
When it comes to the slew of players next in line for major contracts, we must consider even more context: How old is the player? How consistent is his play? Is he on a team that's either desperate to contend or swimming in cap space? What is the team's and GM's history when it comes to making big deals?
Let's take a look at some of the NHL star forwards approaching free agency who could be up for some monster contracts.
Leon Draisaitl
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Leon Draisaitl is set to become a free agent ahead of the 2025-26 season, and his contract negotiations will provide some insight into where the Oilers are as a franchise when the time comes.
The talks will likely come sooner, considering Edmonton doesn't have any major names to re-sign at the end of this season. If the Oilers manage to sign him, you'd think there's a better chance Connor McDavid re-signs as well.
Before that, though, Nylander's contract will be viewed for comparison. Draisaitl and his current $8.5 million cap hit are coming off back-to-back 50-plus goal and 110- and 128-point seasons. Nylander is averaging .87 points per game throughout his career, but Draisaitl has the edge at 1.17 points per game.
The German, 28, has been in the Hart Trophy conversation the past few seasons, and this Oilers team just isn't a contender without his production.
How will Edmonton manage to re-sign both Draisaitl and McDavid in the next few seasons? A sub-$5 million cap raise is a good start, but it won't solve everything.
Elias Pettersson
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The Canucks are perhaps the most exciting team in the NHL right now and looking to make their first deep playoff run in the Elias Pettersson era.
Even better for the 25-year-old, he and the Canucks are doing this during a contract year ahead of his restricted free agency. He's No. 11 in the NHL in scoring with 17 goals and 48 points in 39 games, and he scored 102 points in 80 games last season. He has earned a raise from his $7.35 million cap hit.
Pettersson is two years younger than Nylander, so a long-term contract is even easier to stomach. His fingerprints are on all facets of success with this Canucks team, whether it's pacing the offense with, arguably, the best line in the NHL right now alongside JT Miller and Brock Boeser or killing penalties.
Pettersson's case might serve as either confirmation that we're entering a higher-paid era in the NHL or that things are going to remain with the status quo. A long-term deal would be a good sign for the former, and a shorter-term route would indicate we aren't quite there yet.
Sam Reinhart
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You want to talk about pay raises as a domino from the Nylander contract and playing your best hockey at the perfect time? Let's talk Sam Reinhart.
The Panthers forward will be 28 as he hits free agency at the end of this season. He's steadily improved since joining the Panthers from the Sabres in 2021-22 and started to turn heads with his 33 goals and 82 points in 78 games that season.
He's enjoying a career year and is tied for second in the NHL with 28 goals in 39 games on the last year of his $6.5 million cap hit. It's never been just about the stats when it comes to Reinhart, though, and you could feel his impact at every turn during the Panthers' Cup run last season.
Here's a situation where a player isn't necessarily "better" than Nylander on paper, is slightly older and probably won't command the same ~$11 million AAV. But he's going to get a raise, and his agent will likely point to Nylander's ~$4 million AAV salary increase in the process.
You could also see some teams with a ton of cap space "overpaying," but Reinhart has been such an important part of these Panthers and they're still a great team, so there is relatively easy middle ground here.
Jake Guentzel
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Jake Guentzel is approaching 30 and leading the Penguins with an average of 1.13 points per game in what might be his biggest career contract year.
With his current $6 million cap hit set to expire, he deserves a major raise and perhaps an opportunity to prove the haters wrong. He's so much more than Sidney Crosby's wingman.
For comparison, Guentzel has played in 491 career games with 215 goals, 242 assists, and 457 total points; Nylander has 198 goals and 286 assists for 484 points in 558 games. The two were on extremely team-friendly deals, and we might see negotiations play out similarly.
You wonder if Pittsburgh general manager Kyle Dubas will try to overcorrect and play a little hardball.
With the cap rising and Guentzel's key role in keeping the Penguins contending for a playoff spot, he's getting a raise. But is that in Pittsburgh or on a new journey?
Brock Boeser
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Brock Boeser could be a tricky one, and it'll be somewhat dependent on how the next few years shake out for the Canucks as a whole, and the 26-year-old in terms of performance and health.
He's set to hit the free market at the age of 28 at the end of the 2024-25 season.
The career Canucks winger has had a resurgence this season, with 25 goals and 44 points in 40 games. But this is a pace he hasn't experienced in his career previously, largely due to injuries keeping him out of the lineup.
If Boeser can stay healthy and consistent for the next two seasons, he's no doubt due for a raise on his $6.650 million AAV due to cap inflation alone. But even playing his best, it'll likely be a more modest raise than the Nylander deal.
Mikko Rantanen
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If we're calling Nylander's new contract a reset on the winger market, Mikko Rantanen might be the next reset ahead of the 2025-26 season, commanding a higher AAV due to a combination of increased inflation and playing ability.
Rantanen, 27, is tied with Reinhart at No. 8 in overall points with 20 goals and 50 points in 40 games. He hit 105 points with 55 goals last season, an improvement on the previous season's 92 points. He's taken big step after big step every year he's been healthy in the league, and he had 30 goals and 87 points in 70 playoff games with the Avalanche.
His $9.25 million cap hit should rise at least a few million. At least it won't be as tough to stomach as some of the bigger jumps.
Mitch Marner
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Mitch Marner's fate might be the most interesting of all the looming contracts.
Somebody has to be the odd one out between Nylander, Marner, Matthews and Tavares, and Marner moving on from the Leafs ahead of his 2025-26 free agency via trade or hitting the market would make sense.
The 26-year-old is one of the most dynamic forwards in the league and is on pace for a 100-point season and currently averaging 1.08 points per game after a career-high 99 in 2022-23. The Leafs could address their defensive and goaltending issues by shopping him to young teams with more cap space looking for a franchise forward.
Regardless, Toronto gave Nylander—a one-time 40-goal scorer—a contract with an $11.5 million AAV. When healthy, Marner routinely averages 90-plus points and currently costs $10.9 million against the cap. Nylander is on pace for 120 points, but he's never hit the 100-point mark and Marner generally outscores him.
He's going to ask for more (as he should), and it's going to be tough for Toronto to pull off anything less than Nylander's deal, unless Marner takes a paycut (in the context of Toronto's contract proportions).
Jason Robertson
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Dallas Stars winger Jason Robertson is set to become a restricted free agent at 26 after the 2025-26 season.
The team has a bit of everything going for it right now with depth, youth, experience, and goaltending, but none of it is possible without Robertson's game-by-game consistency.
The 24-year-old has a $7.75 million cap hit, and he is averaging 1.03 points per game this season, with 13 goals and 39 goals in 38 games. He hit the 100-point mark last season and is on pace for 84 despite a slower start to 2023-24.
If Robertson can continue his current tear and find the same consistency to ensure the Stars remain Cup contenders, you may see him hit a double-digit AAV in the Nylander era.
Connor McDavid
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What a time to be alive as the salary cap is set to rise a needle-moving amount just as the best hockey player in the world is thinking about his next contract.
Connor McDavid will be 29 when his current eight-year, $100 million deal expires ahead of the 2026-27 season. There's a solid chance that if he sticks with the Oilers, they'll extend him prior to his pending free-agency period (perhaps around a potential Draisaitl extension).
It's absurd to compare McDavid's future contract to anyone, especially someone who doesn't primarily play center. But we're entering almost inverse proportional logic territory, where if Nylander is making $11.5 million per year, it's reasonable for McDavid to make more than his current $12.5 million per year.
The Oilers might want to start negotiating as soon as possible, considering McDavid's slow(er) start, a heated Hart race and lack of complete cap clarity. Something tells us he's going to get more expensive and restless as he yearns for a Cup and the cap continues to rise.
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