Young NBA Players Who Should Be All-Stars In 3 Years
Future NBA All-Stars are blossoming right before our eyes.
We just don't always know which ones they are.
There are multiple leaps on the maturation process between an intriguing prospect and a full-fledged star, and only a handful of them—at most—will successfully make every last one of those jumps.
While you'd need a time machine to say for certain which up-and-comers will compete that climb, we're here to make educated (and subjective) guesses about which young players will be All-Stars in three year's time.
We'll limit the player pool here to those in their age-21-or-younger season, meaning players who are 22 or will be before Jan. 31 are excluded from consideration.
Others on All-Star Watch
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Keyonte George, Utah Jazz
George's efficiency leaves ample room for improvement, but his flashes of high-end creation and off-the-bounce scoring still look plenty convincing. He's already canning 36.8 percent of his perimeter pull-ups, hinting at the potentially unguardable future ahead of him.
Jalen Green, Houston Rockets
It is, admittedly, a tad troubling to not spot more discernible signs of development during Green's third season, but he packs one of the most powerful scoring punches of anyone in this discussion. His athleticism also stands out in a league of larger-than-life athletes. His box scores need buffering, but if his light bulb clicks, it'll shine brilliantly.
Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers
Henderson gets the nod more for prospect pedigree than on-court production, but this exercise is ultimately about potential, and the 2023 draft's No. 3 pick offers plenty of it. His shooting, decision-making and defense all need more polish, but that might apply to all 19-year-old pros. If you're betting on upside, you want to wager on someone with his combination of skills, physical tools and competitive edge.
Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets
Miller, colloquially known as the player drafted ahead of Henderson last summer, is already providing hope to the seldom-hopeful Hornets. He's been the third-highest scoring rookie (14.9) while pairing his best-in-the-rookie-class 2.1 threes per game with a sizzling 39.6 percent splash rate.
Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
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Banchero, the reigning Rookie of the Year, might be stacking up All-Star selections three years from now. He's already in the mix for this year's midseason classic, and his career trajectory has become an arrow pointing all the way up.
He turned heads for all the right reasons as a rookie—one of nine freshmen to ever average 20 points, six rebounds and 3.5 assists—and has seemingly elevated all facets of his game for his sophomore sequel. If his current stats sustain, he'll become just the sixth second-year player to average 22 points, seven rebounds and 4.5 assists. And he's hitting these high marks while simultaneously posting his best conversion rates from the field (46.5 percent) and from three (37.9).
"He's going to be a force for a long time," Kevin Durant told reporters recently.
Banchero is a 6'10", 250-pound freight train who's just as comfortable barreling to the basket as he is taking defenders off the dribble or creating shots for others. If he ever ups his three-point volume without sacrificing his newfound accuracy, he'll be the definition of a nightmare matchup.
He has an All-Star argument right now, and it'll only get stronger as he and the Magic continue making good on their sky-high potential.
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
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No matter where expectations were set for Holmgren's (redshirt) rookie season, the 7'1" center has obliterated all of them.
He is already a premier paint protector and a 17-plus point scorer who's a charity-stripe hot streak away from earning 50/40/90 enshrinement. To put that in statistical specifics, he's fifth in the league in blocks (2.6) and second among rookies in scoring (17.4) while owning a purely pristine 54.4/40.7/83.2 shooting slash.
If advanced stats are more your jam, Holmgren has you covered there, too. He slots in 11th overall in estimated plus/minus and holds the 20th spot in win shares per 48 minutes. His minus-5.3 defensive field-goal percentage differential is one of the stingiest you'll find among high-volume defenders. His 65.4 true shooting percentage would be (easily) the highest ever posted by a rookie averaging 17-plus points.
"Chet's a problem," Draymond Green told reporters after an earlier matchup. "He can play. He can dribble the ball. He can shoot the ball, has great length, great shot-blocker. He's only gonna get better."
It's possible the Thunder are already on a championship track, and Holmgren's rapid rise has meant as much to their ascension as anything. He should be an All-Star lock three years from now and could easily have entered the superstar discussion.
Alperen Sengün, Houston Rockets
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Of all the players discussed here, Sengün might have the best chance of cracking this season's All-Star roster. And that's saying something, because the basketball world is bursting with under-22 talent.
Still, Sengün has basically served as Houston's launch pad this season. For all of the moves the Rockets made this offseason, nothing has meant more to their ascension than the ongoing emergence of their stat-stuffer in the middle.
He is already an offensive focal point, pacing his team in points (21.5) and dropping its second-most dimes (5.2). And it's possible the Rockets still aren't leaning on him enough. He is one of only four players averaging 20 points, nine rebounds and five assists while posting a 60-plus true shooting percentage. The other three are Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo—recipients of the past five MVP awards.
"Superstar in the making," Fred VanVleet raved. "We're watching it unfold right before our eyes. He's getting better every day."
If Sengün stays on this trajectory, he'll be overloaded with accolades in three years. Forget simply snagging an All-Star spot, he'll have a non-zero chance of crashing the MVP race.
Shaedon Sharpe, Portland Trail Blazers
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Of the five players pegged for stardom here, Sharpe has the weakest All-Star argument right now. That's not entirely his fault.
The Trail Blazers are still charting their post-Damian Lillard path, and their offensive hierarchy is still taking shape. Sharpe doesn't have the same freedom to fire as some others on this list, as he's battling Malcolm Brogdon for third-option status behind Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant.
Give Portland more time to reset its roster, though, and Sharpe could slot in as the franchise centerpiece.
That's projecting quite a bit, but when a 20-year-old pairs elite explosiveness with a creation bag this deep, it's easy to let the imagination run wild. Especially when he's already going on bucket binges, like when he netted 24-plus points and at least three triples in five consecutive contests earlier this season. Or when he sprinted through the tape last season and averaged 23.7 points and 3.1 triples on 46/37.8/77.3 shooting over his final 10 tilts.
His efficiency is down, but so is the talent level around him. Three years should be enough time for the Blazers to build that back up and better position Sharpe for success. His talent and natural tools should take care of the rest.
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
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Wembanyama has yet to reach the halfway point of his first NBA season. He has one of the weakest supporting casts of anyone in this discussion. He spends an incredible (indefensible?) amount of time playing without Tre Jones, the only natural playmaker in San Antonio's rotation.
And yet, Wembanyama is still having a first-of-its-kind start to his career as the only player—regardless of experience level—to average 19 points, 10 rebounds, three blocks and 1.5 three-pointers. You can knock his efficiency or lack of team success if you're a glass-empty kind of person, but you can't deny the Alamo City's alien is off to an otherworldly start.
"He's special," two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo said of Wembanyama. "He's going to be an extremely good player. ... I've never seen anything like him."
Wembanyama has already cemented his spot among the NBA's top defenders. Beyond his league-leading 3.2 blocks, he's holding players to 51.6 percent shooting at the rim and shaving 5.9 percentage points off their field-goal connection rates overall. On shots within 10 feet, that number nearly doubles to 11.5.
His offensive game is perpetually evolving, too—again, largely without the assistance of a traditional point guard. He has scored 27-plus points six times already. Give him a top-notch table-setter, and there's no telling where his output might go.
His ceiling is every bit as enormous as you heard leading up to the draft, and three seasons might be all he needs to take the elevator to the penthouse level. He'll start his All-Star count sooner than later, and once he earns his first invite, he could easily hold that spot for a decade-plus.
Stats used courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and are accurate entering games played on Friday, Jan. 5.
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