NFL Week 18 DFS: Cheap Targets and Pricey Fades on DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football
We've reached Week 18 of the NFL season, which can be a tricky slate to navigate for fans of daily fantasy sports (DFS) action. Many teams have nothing to play for in their regular-season finales, which means several stars are likely to rest.
The Baltimore Ravens, for example, have already announced that quarterback Lamar Jackson won't play against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Fans looking to find fantasy value in DFS games may have to dive deep this week. Below, we'll dive into some of our favorite value plays of Week 18 and examine a few pricer options that should probably be avoided.
Get the latest DFS values at DraftKings.
Quarterback
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Target: Tyrod Taylor, New York Giants, $5,300
The New York Giants don't have much to play for in Week 18, but they will be looking to play spoiler. The Philadelphia Eagles can still claim the NFC East, but they need a win and a Dallas Cowboys loss to do it.
While the Giants can't impact the Dallas game, they can do their part to saddle Philadelphia with a wild-card berth. Attacking a struggling Eagles secondary with Tyrod Taylor and the passing game would be a great way to do that.
Taylor threw for 319 yards with a touchdown and an interception last week, while also rushing for 40 yards. He has some solid dual-threat upside and will face an Eagles defense that has allowed the most fantasy points by opposing quarterbacks.
Fade: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, $6,700
The Detroit Lions insist that they'll play their starters against the Minnesota Vikings this week. However, trusting Jared Goof to play a full four quarters is a dicey proposition at best. The Lions won't want to risk major injury, so if Detroit gets a head early, Goff's day could be over by halftime.
This isn't a particularly spicy matchup for Goff anyway, as the Vikings have surrendered a middling 16.7 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. Goff threw for just 257 yards and one touchdown in the first meeting with Minnesota.
The risk of Goff getting pulled early is simply too great to consider the 29-year-old at this price point.
Running Back
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Target: Ezekiel Elliott, New England Patriots, $5,900
Sunday's game could be Bill Belichick's last with the New England Patriots. Expect the Patriots to go out swinging against the listless New York Jets—a team that hasn't beaten New England since 2015.
Leaning on running back Ezekiel Elliott should be a big part of Belichick's game plan. While Elliott has rarely been a fantasy star this season, he's found the end zone in three of his last four games. He has also caught 22 passes over his last four outings.
Elliott should be in store for another solid game this week. The Patriots are at home and facing a Jets defense that has surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Fade: Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans, $6,400
We're not as high on Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry, who might be entering his final game with the franchise. Tennessee could very well look to audition rookie Tyjae Spears in this one, and the Jacksonville Jaguars have been fairly solid against the run this season.
Jacksonville has allowed the 17th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2023.
While the Jaguars racing out to an early lead certainly played a role, Henry finished with only 44 scrimmage yards the last time he faced Jacksonville. His floor shouldn't be much higher in the rematch, and Henry is too risky to trust.
Wide Receiver
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Target: Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys, $5,200
Brandin Cooks has found the end zone in each of his last two games, and the Cowboys receiver is coming off a five-catch, 60-yard performance.
Cooks could be in store for a similar outing this week against the Washington Commanders. Washington has surrendered the second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers in 2023, and the Cowboys will be playing to win.
If Dallas gets the victory, it will claim the NFC East and the No. 2 seed. Expect the Cowboys to attack Washington's struggling secondary early and often, which should yield a high fantasy floor for Cooks.
Fade: Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams, $7,800
We can recommend trusting Los Angeles Rams star receiver Puka Nacua this week. Los Angeles is resting several starters, including quarterback Matthew Stafford, and while Nacua will start, he might not stay in the game long.
"I think you'd like to be able to see him get an opportunity to do something special and then be smart with him," head coach Sean McVay told reporters.
Nacua needs just 29 receiving yards to break Bill Groman's rookie receiving record. That means that Nacua's day could be over after one 30-yard reception. There simply isn't a high enough ceiling here to trust the usually dependable Nacua at this price point.
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Tight End
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Target: Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers, $3,700
Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft might not be a high-end DFS option, but he has had a strong floor over the past month. In his last four outings, the rookie has produced no fewer than four receptions and no fewer than 48 receiving yards.
Expect Kraft to play a big role against the Chicago Bears this week, as the Packers face a win-and-in playoff scenario.
Chicago's defense has been playing extremely well as of late, but it has struggled occasionally against opposing tight ends. The Bears have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points by the position on the season, making Kraft a solid budget option for the week.
Fade: Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars, $5,400
Jaguars tight end Evan Engram is usually a very reliable fantasy tight end. However, things are complicated entering the matchup with Tennessee. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) may start, but he's unlikely to be at 100 percent.
The Titans defense, meanwhile, has been terrific against opposing tight ends in 2023. No team has surrendered fewer fantasy points to the position this year.
Engram didn't do a ton in the first meeting, finishing with four catches and just 29 yards. He can be safely faded for the rematch.
*Fantasy scoring information from FantasyPros.
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