Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler: Early Head-to-Toe Breakdown
We've been waiting to see Conor McGregor and Michael Chandler fight for well over a year, and it sounds like it may finally happen this summer.
On New Year's Eve, McGregor took to social media to announce to his millions of followers that he'll be meeting his lightweight rival on June 29 in Las Vegas. He also made the surprising claim that the fight would occur at middleweight, two divisions above his and Chandler's natural weight class.
The UFC has yet to confirm any of that, so it should all be taken with a grain of salt, but McGregor's announcement is a promising sign.
The 35-year-old is a former two-division UFC champ but has not fought since he suffered a broken ankle in his second consecutive stoppage loss to Dustin Poirier in July 2021, and he's winless since he shooed away the ghost of Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone in January 2020.
Chandler, on the other hand, is a former Bellator lightweight champ but has suffered losses to Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier in his last five fights. Those are three of the best lightweights of this generation, but the American has been struggling to get the results he wants in the Octagon and is even older than McGregor at 37.
With so many variables in play, it's very difficult to say who will come out on top in this long-awaited clash, but a closer look at their games reveals some interesting insights.
Striking
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McGregor's pinpoint striking and ferocious knockout power have always been his main claims to fame in the Octagon. In his heyday, he was one of the slickest, most effective knockout artists in the game.
Unfortunately, his approach seems to have regressed significantly over recent years, as he's abandoned the clever kicking game that helped him beat the likes of Chad Mendes and Dustin Poirier at featherweight, and focused almost exclusively on his boxing, which is good, but only so useful on its own in an MMA fight.
Chandler hits at least as hard as McGregor, but that's where the similarities between their striking games end. The former Bellator champion is far less defensive than McGregor and has always been happy to eat a few shots to land a big one of his own, sometimes with disastrous consequences.
In recent years, however, he's also been more well-rounded than McGregor, throwing a wide variety of strikes from both stances, like the wild kick he used to knock out Tony Ferguson in 2022.
McGregor's changing approach and Chandler's wild, unpredictable style make it very difficult to predict what will happen if these two decide to settle things on their feet. However, the stats still suggest the Irishman is the more dangerous striker. Per UFCStats.com, he still has a slightly higher striking output and accuracy rate than Chandler and has a better defense rate on the feet.
Those details, when combined with Chandler's willingness to take damage, make it very difficult not to give McGregor a slight edge.
Edge: McGregor
Submissions
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We haven't seen much of Chandler's submission game since he jumped from Bellator to the UFC. In fact, he has attempted just one submission in the Octagon, in his 2022 title fight with Charles Oliveira.
Still, there's no question he is a more proven submission threat than McGregor. Over the course of his 31-fight career, Chandler has won seven fights by submission, tapping the likes of Eddie Alvarez and Marcin Held, both of whom are very experienced grapplers.
McGregor, on the flip side, has only won by submission once, when he defeated Dave Hill at a Cage Warriors show in 2012. He's also attempted just one submission his 14 Octagon appearances, and it actually occurred in his last fight, when he threatened Poirier with a guillotine before being finished.
McGregor has also lost four times by submission, while Chandler only has once. There's no question who's got the upper hand here.
Edge: Chandler
Wrestling
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If Chandler wants to ply his submissions against McGregor, he'll need to take the Irishman down. He seems to have the skills to do that with relative ease—as long as he doesn't walk into an uppercut or knee in the process.
Chandler is a wrestler at his roots, and he has used that skill with tremendous success in Bellator and the UFC. In a recent loss to Poirier, for example, he secured three takedowns before he tapped out in Round 3. He also took Tony Ferguson down before knocking him out in his previous fight.
McGregor, meanwhile, has always been weak against takedowns. He was taken down once in each of his brief lightweight fights with Poirier, and three times in his lopsided submission loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov. Even when he wins, he's sometimes taken down repeatedly first. He was taken down once in his 2016 decision win over Nate Diaz, for example, and four times before he knocked Chad Mendes out in 2015.
He's got a decent 66 percent takedown defense rate, per UFCStats.com, but he's going to be in trouble if Chandler starts looking for takedowns.
Edge: Chandler
X-Factors
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McGregor's X-Factor: Be Conor McGregor
There has never been a fighter like McGregor in MMA, and there may never be again. Even after going more than four years without a win, he is a bigger star than any other fighter on the roster by a large margin. That kind of mainstream cachet comes with some serious sway, and McGregor is already using it to his advantage.
After forcing Chandler to spend all of 2023 waiting for him to return, he's now challenging the former Bellator champ to fight in a weight class neither of them has ever experienced before. It probably won't happen that way, but there's no question McGregor is the A-side of this matchup and will be in control of nearly everything that happens until the cage door closes.
Chandler seems like a level-headed guy, but the world-famous Irishman has a way of rattling the people he fights, and it's very possible it could happen again this time. If Chandler isn't laser-focused, he risks making mistakes in the fight, and you don't want to do that against McGregor—even in 2024.
Chandler's X-Factor: Fight Like a Purist
Chandler may choose to strike with McGregor, and he can beat the Irishman under those circumstances. However, he has a far clearer path to victory if he chooses to use the other weapons in his arsenal, even at the expense of a potential highlight-reel knockout against the biggest star in MMA history.
McGregor fans are going to hate this, but the simple truth is that Chandler will probably win this matchup if he fights like a wrestling purist. McGregor is not difficult to get to the mat—if Nate Diaz can do it, anyone can—and Chandler is one of the best takedown specialists the Irishman has fought to date.
Early Prediction
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What makes this fight really interesting is the fact that Chandler might be willing to strike with McGregor. He has surely seen his opponent's technical regression on the feet and will be emboldened by the fact that the Irishman has not fought since his career-threatening 2021 loss to Poirier. He has a good shot of knocking the Irishman out cold, which would do more for his career than any title win, and he may be willing to risk being sparked himself to make it happen.
That being said, Chandler trains under some of the best coaches in the world at Sanford MMA, and they will most likely encourage him to focus on winning by any means, rather than just knocking McGregor out.
In that event, we can expect Chandler to start looking for takedowns early, and if history tells us anything, it won't be long before he gets one. McGregor may pop back up to his feet a few times, but Chandler will not relent, and after so much time away from the cage, McGregor may not have the speed or timing to catch his opponent as he shoots.
Our early prediction? Chandler drags McGregor into a grappling hell for a few rounds, and when the Irishman's gas tank starts to deplete—which will happen faster than usual if they fight at middleweight—the American will start unleashing his ground and pound.
He might need to look to his submissions eventually, but punches and elbows should be enough.
Chandler by TKO, Rd. 3
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