Buy or Sell Jokić for MVP, Chet for ROY and NBA Awards Favorites so Far
As we hit the halfway point of the 2023-24 NBA season, bettors have an opportunity to either hedge or double down on their favorite awards picks.
This is the time to find real value and maybe even take some risks. For example, Joel Embiid was once the clear favorite for MVP but has fallen way down the board because of missed games. Do you buy in now when his odds are longer and hope he finds a way to clear the 65-game mark? Or do you play it safe and bank on someone else?
Could Victor Wembanyama and his generational talent produce a second-half leap that nudges him ahead of current favorite Chet Holmgren for Rookie of the Year? Can anyone catch the Oklahoma City Thunder's Mark Daigneault for Coach of the Year?
Using odds via FanDuel, we'll lay out all of the league's major award favorites and analyze whether they deserve that status or not. Keep in mind that even in cases where we're endorsing the current leaders, an entire half-season of ball remains to be played.
That means nothing is certain and the opportunity to find value is everywhere.
MVP Favorite: Nikola Jokić
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MVP Odds
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets: +170
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder: +280
Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks: +500
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: +600
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers: +900
Not so long ago, Joel Embiid was the MVP favorite at plus-250 and owned a commanding lead in a straw poll conducted by ESPN's Tim Bontemps. Today, he's out of the top four entirely.
That turnabout illustrates how quickly things can change in these races. Embiid's fall owes mostly to the 10 games he's missed, which means he can only sit an additional eight before falling below the 65-game minimum. But it also has something to do with Nikola Jokić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander refusing to let off the gas.
Embiid isn't out of it yet, and he's got a terrific case if he can somehow stay on the floor for at least 65 games. When a reigning MVP ups his points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks per game while setting a pace that'd break the all-time record for Player Efficiency Rating, he cannot be ruled out. His Sixers outscore opponents by 13.0 points per 100 possessions when he's in the game, a higher figure than SGA (plus-12.9) and Jokić (plus-11.5).
These five players rank first through fifth in Dunks and Threes' Estimated Wins, a cumulative catch-all that rewards availability. Gilgeous-Alexander has the lead, Antetokounmpo is second, Jokić third and Dončić fourth. Embiid is last among that group, as his total of 27 games hurts him in a big way; Jokić has played 40. Embiid, though, is first in EPM, the per-minute version of that stat.
Halfway through the season, every one of these five players still has a legitimate shot. All of their individual cases are strong, which means team success could be the deciding factor. Though it's tough to imagine Jokić's Denver Nuggets falling off, the Thunder's surge toward the top of the West is getting serious attention. If they finish first in the conference and SGA continues to play better than any other guard in the league, he might walk away with the hardware.
Ultimately, the safe play is to trust in the guy who's done it before. Tentatively, and while acknowledging how stellar the top candidates have been so far, Jokić gets a narrow edge.
Verdict: Buy
Rookie of the Year Favorite: Chet Holmgren
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Rookie of the Year Odds
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder: -195
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: +125
Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat: +21000
Dereck Lively II, Dallas Mavericks: +42000
Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets: +50000
Some rookies are putting up big numbers and jaw-dropping highlights, and some are contributing meaningful minutes on winning teams. Chet Holmgren is the only one doing both, which is why he's way ahead of the field in this season's Rookie of the Year race.
Considering how these odds looked prior to the season, with Victor Wembanyama leading the group at +130, followed by Holmgren at +270 and Scoot Henderson at +300, it's a legitimate shock to see Holmgren as such a prohibitive favorite now.
Wembanyama is delivering on much of the hype that attended his introduction to the NBA, leading the league in blocks per game while also looking like a good bet to average at least 20.0 points and 10.0 rebounds in his debut season. If he simply finishes with his current averages of 19.4 points, 10.2 boards and 3.1 swats, he'll be just the fourth rookie to ever pull that off.
Holmgren, though, is putting up his own eye-popping numbers—17.9 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.5 blocks on a 55.7/39.5/79.7 shooting split Wemby can't touch—for a winner. He should make the All-Star team for his two-way impact on an OKC club that has a real chance to finish as the top seed in the West.
It's certainly not his fault, but Wembanyama's Spurs probably aren't going to crack the 20-win barrier Oklahoma City blew through before New Year's.
Wembanyama is going to play even better as he gets more comfortable, but Holmgren is showing no signs of tailing off. This will be closer than the current odds suggest, but Chet deserves to be the favorite.
Verdict: Buy
Defensive Player of the Year Favorite: Rudy Gobert
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DPOY Odds
Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves: -230
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder: +800
Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers: +1500
OG Anunoby, New York Knicks: +2000
Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat: +2500
It looks like we've got a runaway on our hands here, as Rudy Gobert not only has the past pedigree to justify his prohibitive favorite status for DPOY but also a statistical resumé nobody else in the league can touch this season.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are head and shoulders above the field in defensive efficiency, and their league-leading 108.8 defensive rating is 9.6 points per 100 possessions better when Gobert is on the floor. Opponents basically give up on close-range looks when the three-time DPOY is in the game; attempt rates at the rim drop by 6.1 percent (a 99th percentile impact among bigs) with Gobert in the lane.
Among defenders who contest at least 7.0 shots per game inside six feet, Gobert's 48.1 percent opponent field-goal percentage ranks first by a mile.
This is not the best defensive season Gobert has ever produced, but that's largely because the bar he set across nine years with the Utah Jazz was exceptionally high. The league leader in Defensive Win Shares is the most significant factor driving the league's best defense and an easily justifiable favorite for this award.
Anthony Davis has a chance to make things interesting if he stays healthy and the Lakers climb the standings on the strength of their defense. But this is Gobert's honor to lose.
Verdict: Buy
Sixth Man of the Year Favorite: Tim Hardaway Jr.
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Sixth Man of the Year Odds
Tim Hardaway Jr., Dallas Mavericks: +195
Malik Monk, Sacramento Kings: +350
Bogdan Bogdanović, Atlanta Hawks: +470
Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers: +750
Jordan Clarkson, Utah Jazz: +750
It often seems like the Sixth Man of the Year award is decided by simpler criteria than any other: Just sort bench players by total points scored, and you come pretty close to the answer. That's not to say Tim Hardaway Jr., who happens to be the favorite of oddsmakers and whose 526 points rank fourth among players with 10 or fewer starts, is the wrong pick.
But it does illustrate how lazy the selection process for this particular award can be.
Why not consider the fact that Malik Monk, who ranks second in total bench points, sits among the top 30 in clutch minutes played this year—the highest total of any full-time reserve? Sixth Man rewards non-starters, but it should matter if a candidate frequently closes tight games.
The counter: Bogdanović averages more fourth-quarter playing time than Monk, and the Hawks actually have a plus-60 differential during those minutes, which can't be said of the Kings with Monk and his minus-12 in the final period.
Nobody seems to be able to explain why Norman Powell and his 46.0 percent three-point shooting for a dominant Clippers team can't crack the top five. His Clippers are a plus-63 in his fourth-quarter minutes, and his 186 points in the final frame top the total of any other bench player in the league.
This award should be far from decided, and things could change drastically if Bogdanović gets traded to a team that starts him enough to disqualify him from consideration. Powell, Naz Reid and Kelly Olynyk could still be big factors. Hardaway's current favorite status is probably the shakiest of any award so far.
Verdict: Sell
Coach of the Year Favorite: Mark Daigneault
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Coach of the Year Odds
Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder: +115
Chris Finch, Minnesota Timberwolves: +260
Joe Mazzulla, Boston Celtics: +950
Rick Carlisle, Indiana Pacers: +1200
Jamahl Mosley, Orlando Magic: +1400
The Oklahoma City Thunder entered the season with the second-youngest roster in the league. Yet instead of playing the kind of undisciplined, chaotic style you'd expect from a squad with that profile (hi there, 2022-23 Houston Rockets!), the Thunder have the league's lowest turnover rate.
Don't worry, Oklahoma City games are still full of disorder. It just comes on the other end, where head coach Mark Daigneault has his team playing a brand of predatory, ball-hawking defense that produces the highest share of opponent giveaways in the NBA.
OKC is often undersized and almost always at a disadvantage in terms of experience. But it is uncommonly organized, creative, experimental and competitive. The Thunder have the advantage of an on-ball superstar in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but Daigneault's real impact shows up in how he utilizes the players around SGA. Positions and traditional roles don't matter on his watch; the Thunder excel by developing broad skill sets in all of their players and deploying them in ways that opponents don't expect.
"System fundamentals across the board," Daigneault told The Athletic's Anthony Slater. "So, like, we're teaching our fives how and when to cut. We're teaching our guards how and when to screen. We're not siphoning out skills to positions."
Playing the Thunder, who invert norms and blow up game plans, is unlike playing any other team. That owes to Daigneault, who has the Thunder sitting second in net rating and looking every bit like a true contender.
If the Minnesota Timberwolves win 60 games and Oklahoma City struggles to maintain its current high-50s pace, Chris Finch could wind up overtaking the current favorite. But as it stands now, Daigneault's case is close to airtight.
Verdict: Buy
Most Improved Player Favorite: Tyrese Maxey
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Most Improved Player Odds
Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers: -210
Alperen Sengün, Houston Rockets: +290
Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors: +1500
Coby White, Chicago Bulls: +1500
Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers: +3000
Tyrese Maxey's ascent owes largely to the increased opportunities he's enjoying in the wake of James Harden's departure. That shouldn't diminish what Maxey's done in a breakout year that has seen him jump from 20.3 to 26.1 points per game while profiling as a No. 2 option on a contender.
Maxey has sacrificed some efficiency, with his true shooting percentage dipping from 60.5 percent last year to 58.2 percent this season. But his assist rate is way up while his turnover rate is down, and he's generating threes and free-throws more frequently than ever before.
One could argue that Alperen Sengün's importance to the Houston Rockets is greater, as he's been the team's leading scorer and facilitator. But the Rockets aren't in the Philadelphia 76ers' lofty tier competitively, and it's not really fair to penalize Maxey for playing with the reigning MVP.
Scottie Barnes is a candidate to watch, as he's actually added skills he didn't possess before. His improvement from 28.1 percent to 38.2 percent (on nearly double the volume) from long range is exactly the kind of fundamental level-up we should reward with the MIP honor. Sengün's growth defensively falls into the same category, but we should already be chuckling at the thought of voters considering defense outside of the DPOY conversation.
Lastly, we should acknowledge that if his hamstring injury doesn't prevent him from clearing 65 games, Tyrese Haliburton has a real shot here. He's had multiple 20-point, 20-assist games and might finish the year among the top five in MVP voting. Maxey deserves favorite status at the moment, but several top threats and others further down the list—Coby White, Derrick White, Jalen Johnson, Jalen Williams—will give him a run for his money.
Verdict: Sell
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate entering games played Monday, Jan. 15. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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